Related papers: E-values for Adaptive Clinical Trials: Anytime-Val…
The e-value is gaining traction as a robust alternative to p-values and Bayes factors for quantifying statistical evidence. e-values are a promising method for adaptive clinical trials due to their anytime-validity: e-values ensure type I…
Sequential monitoring of randomized trials traditionally relies on parametric assumptions or asymptotic approximations. We discuss a family of nonparametric sequential tests - collectively called e-RT - for binary, event-only, and…
Forecasting and forecast evaluation are inherently sequential tasks. Predictions are often issued on a regular basis, such as every hour, day, or month, and their quality is monitored continuously. However, the classical statistical tools…
Response-adaptive clinical trial designs allow targeting a given objective by skewing the allocation of participants to treatments based on observed outcomes. Response-adaptive designs face greater regulatory scrutiny due to potential type…
E-variables are tools for retaining type-I error guarantee with optional stopping. We extend E-variables for sequential two-sample tests to general null hypotheses and anytime-valid confidence sequences. We provide implementations for…
Conformal prediction is a powerful framework for distribution-free uncertainty quantification. The standard approach to conformal prediction relies on comparing the ranks of prediction scores: under exchangeability, the rank of a future…
Background: Advanced adaptive randomised clinical trials are increasingly used. Compared to their conventional counterparts, their flexibility may make them more efficient, increase the probability of obtaining conclusive results without…
E-values and E-processes (nonnegative supermartingales) provide anytime-valid evidence for sequential testing via Ville's inequality, yet their connection to Bayesian reasoning, representational structure, and computational feasibility are…
Clinical trials are an instrument for making informed decisions based on evidence from well-designed experiments. Here we consider adaptive designs mainly from the perspective of multi-arm Phase II clinical trials, in which one or more…
We develop E-variables for testing whether two or more data streams come from the same source or not, and more generally, whether the difference between the sources is larger than some minimal effect size. These E-variables lead to exact,…
Probability forecasts for binary events play a central role in many applications. Their quality is commonly assessed with proper scoring rules, which assign forecasts a numerical score such that a correct forecast achieves a minimal…
Clinical trials are an integral component of medical research. Trials require careful design to, for example, maintain the safety of participants, use resources efficiently and allow clinically meaningful conclusions to be drawn. Adaptive…
In conventional randomized controlled trials, adjustment for baseline values of covariates known to be at least moderately associated with the outcome increases the power of the trial. Recent work has shown particular benefit for more…
This paper shows that sequential statistical analysis techniques can be generalised to the problem of selecting between alternative forecasting methods using scoring rules. A return to basic principles is necessary in order to show that…
This paper considers real-time control and learning problems for finite-dimensional linear systems under binary-valued and randomly disturbed output observations. This has long been regarded as an open problem because the exact values of…
Background: The E-value has become widely used for assessing robustness to unmeasured confounding in observational studies, but the original framework was developed for single time-point exposure-outcome settings. This study extends the…
Background: Non-inferiority studies based on non-randomised data are increasingly used in clinical research but remain prone to unmeasured confounding. The classical E-value offers a simple way to quantify such bias but has been applied…
Group sequential designs in clinical trials allow for interim efficacy and futility monitoring. Adjustment for baseline covariates can increase power and precision of estimated effects. However, inconsistently applying covariate adjustment…
We propose a sequential, anytime-valid method to test the conditional independence of a response $Y$ and a predictor $X$ given a random vector $Z$. The proposed test is based on e-statistics and test martingales, which generalize likelihood…
Adaptive experiments use preliminary analyses of the data to inform further course of action and are commonly used in many disciplines including medical and social sciences. Because the null hypothesis and experimental design are…