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Assessing and managing risks in a changing climate requires projections that account for decision-relevant uncertainties. These deep uncertainties are often approximated by ensembles of Earth-system model runs that sample only a subset of…
In the world of modern financial theory, portfolio construction has traditionally operated under at least one of two central assumptions: the constraints are derived from a utility function and/or the multivariate probability distribution…
Current models of human dynamics, used from risk assessment to communications, assume that human actions are randomly distributed in time and thus well approximated by Poisson processes. We provide direct evidence that for five human…
Response latency -- the time taken to initiate or complete an action or task -- is one of the principal measures used to investigate the mechanisms subserving human and animal cognitive processes. The right tails of response latency…
The task for a general and useful classification of the tail behaviors of probability distributions still has no satisfactory solution. Due to lack of information outside the range of the data the tails of the distribution should be…
An important but understudied question in economics is how people choose when facing uncertainty in the timing of events. Here we study preferences over time lotteries, in which the payment amount is certain but the payment time is…
Recently, increasing empirical evidence indicates the extensive existence of heavy tails in the interevent time distributions of various human behaviors. Based on the queuing theory, the Barab\'asi model and its variations suggest the…
Nowadays, with the increase in the amount of information generated in the webspace, many web service providers try to use recommender systems to personalize their services and make accessing the content convenient. Recommender systems that…
It is argued that there is a need for fat-tailed distributions that become thin in the extreme tail. A 3-parameter distribution is introduced that visually resembles the t-distribution and interpolates between the normal distribution and…
We demonstrate that distributions of human response times have power-law tails and, among closed-form distributions, are best fit by the generalized inverse gamma distribution. We speculate that the task difficulty tracks the half-width of…
The performance of trend following strategies can be ascribed to the difference between long-term and short-term realized variance. We revisit this general result and show that it holds for various definitions of trend strategies. This…
A decision must often be made between heavy-tailed and Gaussian errors for a regression or a time series model, and the t-distribution is frequently used when it is assumed that the errors are heavy-tailed distributed. The performance of…
The dynamics of many social, technological and economic phenomena are driven by individual human actions, turning the quantitative understanding of human behavior into a central question of modern science. Current models of human dynamics,…
Queuing models provide insight into the temporal inhomogeneity of human dynamics, characterized by the broad distribution of waiting times of individuals performing tasks. We study the queuing model of an agent trying to execute a task of…
When foraging for information, users face a tradeoff between the accuracy and value of the acquired information and the time spent collecting it, a problem which also surfaces when seeking answers to a question posed to a large community.…
When trying to solve a computational problem, we are often faced with a choice between algorithms that are guaranteed to return the right answer but differ in their runtime distributions (e.g., SAT solvers, sorting algorithms). This paper…
Social, technological and economic time series are divided by events which are usually assumed to be random albeit with some hierarchical structure. It is well known that the interevent statistics observed in these contexts differs from the…
The areas under workload process and under queuing process in a single server queue over the busy period have many applications not only in queuing theory but also in risk theory or percolation theory. We focus here on the tail behaviour of…
Extensive empirical studies show that the long distribution tail of travel time and the corresponding unexpected delay can have much more serious consequences than expected or moderate delay. However, the unexpected delay due to the…
This paper studies relations among axioms on individuals' intertemporal choices under risk. The focus is on Risk Averse over Time Lotteries (RATL), meaning that a fixed prize is preferred to a lottery with the same monetary prize but a…