Related papers: Non-Linear Drivers of Population Dynamics: a Nonpa…
The classical model for the genealogies of a neutrally evolving population in a fixed environment is due to Kingman. Kingman's coalescent process, which produces a binary tree, universally emerges from many microscopic models in which the…
We propose a flexible Bayesian approach for estimating the joint density of a multivariate outcome of interest in the presence of categorical covariates. Leveraging a Gaussian copula framework, our method effectively captures the dependence…
Sampling conditional distributions is a fundamental task for Bayesian inference and density estimation. Generative models, such as normalizing flows and generative adversarial networks, characterize conditional distributions by learning a…
Macroscopic growth laws, solutions of mean field equations, describe in an effective way an underlying complex dynamics. They are applied to study the spreading of infections, as in the case of CoviD-19, where the counting of the cumulated…
This paper proposes a non-phenomenological model of population growth that is based on the interactions between the individuals that compose the system. It is assumed that the individuals interact cooperatively and competitively. As a…
Phylodynamics is a set of population genetics tools that aim at reconstructing demographic history of a population based on molecular sequences of individuals sampled from the population of interest. One important task in phylodynamics is…
1. Although environmental variability is expected to play a more prominent role under climate change, current demographic models that ignore the differential environmental histories of cohorts across generations are unlikely to accurately…
Probabilistic Regression refers to predicting a full probability density function for the target conditional on the features. We present a nonparametric approach to this problem which combines base classifiers (typically gradient boosted…
Inferring the infinitesimal rates of continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) is a central challenge in many scientific domains. This task is hindered by three factors: quadratic growth in the number of rates as the CTMC state space expands,…
Understanding under what conditions interacting populations, whether they be plants, animals, or viral particles, coexist is a question of theoretical and practical importance in population biology. Both biotic interactions and…
The combination of high-dimensionality and disparity of time scales encountered in many problems in computational physics has motivated the development of coarse-grained (CG) models. In this paper, we advocate the paradigm of data-driven…
A key challenge in estimating causal effects from observational data is handling confounding and is commonly achieved through weighting methods that balance distribution of covariates between treatment and control groups. Weighting…
In a meta-analysis, it is important to specify a model that adequately describes the effect-size distribution of the underlying population of studies. The conventional normal fixed-effect and normal random-effects models assume a normal…
For a family of models of evolving population under selection, which can be described by noisy traveling wave equations, the coalescence times along the genealogical tree scale like $\log^\alpha N$, where $N$ is the size of the population,…
Heat waves resulting from prolonged extreme temperatures pose a significant risk to human health globally. Given the limitations of observations of extreme temperature, climate models are often used to characterize extreme temperature…
In population genetic studies, the allele frequency spectrum (AFS) efficiently summarizes genome-wide polymorphism data and shapes a variety of allele frequency-based summary statistics. While existing theory typically features equilibrium…
Marginalization of latent variables or nuisance parameters is a fundamental aspect of Bayesian inference and uncertainty quantification. In this work, we focus on scalable marginalization of latent variables in modeling correlated data,…
Timely prediction of the COVID-19 progression is not possible without a comprehensive understanding of environmental factors that may affect the infection transmissibility. Studies addressing parameters that may influence COVID-19…
We review models of biological evolution in which the population frequency changes deterministically with time. If the population is self-replicating, although the equations for simple prototypes can be linearised, nonlinear equations arise…
Traditionally, frequency dependent evolutionary dynamics is described by deterministic replicator dynamics assuming implicitly infinite population sizes. Only recently have stochastic processes been introduced to study evolutionary dynamics…