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Large-scale renewable energy deployment introduces pronounced volatility into the electricity system, turning grid operation into a complex stochastic optimization problem. Accurate electricity price forecasting (EPF) is essential not only…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-17 Jan Niklas Lettner , Hadeer El Ashhab , Veit Hagenmeyer , Benjamin Schäfer

Accurate electricity price forecasting (EPF) is crucial for effective decision-making in power trading on the spot market. While recent advances in generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) and pre-trained large language models (LLMs) have…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-21 Timothée Hornek Amir Sartipi , Igor Tchappi , Gilbert Fridgen

Electricity market prices exhibit extreme volatility, nonlinearity, and non-stationarity, making accurate forecasting a significant challenge. While cutting-edge time series foundation models (TSFMs) effectively capture temporal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-10 Yunzhong Qiu , Binzhu Li , Hao Wei , Shenglin Weng , Chen Wang , Zhongyi Pei , Mingsheng Long , Jianmin Wang

Accurate electricity price forecasting (EPF) is increasingly difficult in markets characterised by extreme volatility, frequent price spikes, and rapid structural shifts. Deep learning (DL) has been increasingly adopted in EPF due to its…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-16 Mohammed Osman Gani , Zhipeng He , Chun Ouyang , Sara Khalifa

Electricity price forecasting (EPF) is a branch of forecasting on the interface of electrical engineering, statistics, computer science, and finance, which focuses on predicting prices in wholesale electricity markets for a whole spectrum…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-04-26 Arkadiusz Jędrzejewski , Jesus Lago , Grzegorz Marcjasz , Rafał Weron

Financial time series forecasting presents significant challenges due to complex nonlinear relationships, temporal dependencies, variable interdependencies and limited data availability, particularly for tasks involving low-frequency data,…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-07-11 Ben A. Marconi

Recent advances in Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) promise zero-shot forecasting capabilities with minimal task-specific training. While these models have shown strong performance across generic benchmarks, their applicability in…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-05-19 Chi Bui , Maria Margarida Mascarenhas , Arnaud Verstraeten , Hussain Kazmi

Accurate forecasts of electricity prices are crucial for the management of electric power systems and the development of smart applications. European electricity prices have risen substantially and became highly volatile after the Russian…

Probabilistic electricity price forecasting (PEPF) is vital for short-term electricity markets, yet the multivariate nature of day-ahead prices - spanning 24 consecutive hours - remains underexplored. At the same time, real-time…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-27 Simon Hirsch

Trading on the day-ahead electricity markets requires accurate information about the realization of electricity prices and the uncertainty attached to the predictions. Deriving accurate forecasting models presents a difficult task due to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-25 Hannes Hilger , Dirk Witthaut , Manuel Dahmen , Leonardo Rydin Gorjao , Julius Trebbien , Eike Cramer

Accurately forecasting electricity price volatility is crucial for effective risk management and decision-making. Traditional forecasting models often fall short in capturing the complex, non-linear dynamics of electricity markets,…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2025-05-20 Haochen Xue , Chenghao Liu , Chong Zhang , Yuxuan Chen , Angxiao Zong , Zhaodong Wu , Yulong Li , Jiayi Liu , Kaiyu Liang , Zhixiang Lu , Ruobing Li , Jionglong Su

Accurate household electricity short-term load forecasting (STLF) is key to future and sustainable energy systems. While various studies have analyzed statistical, machine learning, or deep learning approaches for household electricity…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-01-09 Marcel Meyer , David Zapata , Sascha Kaltenpoth , Oliver Müller

Short term electricity price forecast is essential in competitive power markets, yet electricity price series exhibit high volatility, irregularity, and non-stationarity. This phenomenon is pronounced in the South Australian region of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-28 Wei Lu , Jay Wang , Dingli Duan , Ding Mao , Caiyi Song , John Huang

The accurate prediction of short-term electricity prices is vital for effective trading strategies, power plant scheduling, profit maximisation and efficient system operation. However, uncertainties in supply and demand make such…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-04-20 Mira Watermeyer , Thomas Möbius , Oliver Grothe , Felix Müsgens

The study of Day-Ahead prices in the electricity market is one of the most popular problems in time series forecasting. Previous research has focused on employing increasingly complex learning algorithms to capture the sophisticated…

Applications · Statistics 2024-04-29 Carlos Sebastián , Carlos E. González-Guillén , Jesús Juan

Electricity is traded on various markets with different time horizons and regulations. Short-term intraday trading becomes increasingly important due to the higher penetration of renewables. In Germany, the intraday electricity price…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-13 Eike Cramer , Dirk Witthaut , Alexander Mitsos , Manuel Dahmen

Accurate day-ahead electricity price forecasts are critical for power system operation and market participation, yet growing renewable penetration and recent crises have caused unprecedented volatility that challenges standard models. This…

Applications · Statistics 2026-04-01 Bartosz Uniejewski

The availability of accurate day-ahead electricity price forecasts is pivotal for electricity market participants. In the context of trade liberalisation and market harmonisation in the European markets, accurate price forecasting becomes…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-07-20 Wei Li , Denis Mike Becker

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) such as Lag-Llama, TimeGPT, Chronos, MOMENT, UniTS, and TimesFM have shown strong generalization and zero-shot capabilities for time series forecasting, anomaly detection, classification, and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-26 Dhruv D. Modi , Rong Pan

Electricity price forecasting (EPF) plays a major role for electricity companies as a fundamental entry for trading decisions or energy management operations. As electricity can not be stored, electricity prices are highly volatile which…

Applications · Statistics 2024-05-27 Grégoire Dutot , Margaux Zaffran , Olivier Féron , Yannig Goude
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