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Uncertainty quantification has emerged as an effective approach to closed-book hallucination detection for LLMs, but existing methods are largely designed for short-form outputs and do not generalize well to long-form generation. We…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-02-20 Dylan Bouchard , Mohit Singh Chauhan , Viren Bajaj , David Skarbrevik

In the context of Monte Carlo (MC) simulation of particle transport Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) addresses the issue of predicting non statistical errors affecting the physical results, i.e. errors deriving mainly from uncertainties in…

Computational Physics · Physics 2015-06-18 Paolo Saracco , Maria Grazia Pia

We have recently proposed a rigorous framework for Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in which UQ objectives and assumption/information set are brought into the forefront, providing a framework for the communication and comparison of UQ…

Discrete Mathematics · Computer Science 2012-02-07 M. McKerns , H. Owhadi , C. Scovel , T. J. Sullivan , M. Ortiz

Large Language Models (LLMs) still face challenges when dealing with complex reasoning tasks, often resulting in hallucinations, which limit the practical application of LLMs. To alleviate this issue, this paper proposes a new method that…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-11-26 Zhihua Duan , Jialin Wang

The generation of texts using Large Language Models (LLMs) is inherently uncertain, with sources of uncertainty being not only the generation of texts, but also the prompt used and the downstream interpretation. Within this work, we provide…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-30 Steffen Herbold , Florian Lemmerich

Agent-based simulation provides a powerful tool for in silico system modeling. However, these simulations do not provide built-in methods for uncertainty quantification (UQ). Within these types of models a typical approach to UQ is to run…

Applications · Statistics 2025-04-17 Adam Spannaus , Sifat Afroj Moon , John Gounley , Heidi A. Hanson

Reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for ensuring trustworthy downstream use of large language models, especially when they are deployed in decision-support and other knowledge-intensive applications. Model certainty can be…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-11-04 Autumn Toney-Wails , Ryan Wails

Handling unanswerable questions (UAQ) is crucial for LLMs, as it helps prevent misleading responses in complex situations. While previous studies have built several datasets to assess LLMs' performance on UAQ, these datasets lack factual…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-30 Chuanyuan Tan , Wenbiao Shao , Hao Xiong , Tong Zhu , Zhenhua Liu , Kai Shi , Wenliang Chen

Uncertainty quantification approaches have been more critical in large language models (LLMs), particularly high-risk applications requiring reliable outputs. However, traditional methods for uncertainty quantification, such as…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-07-01 Ferhat Ozgur Catak , Murat Kuzlu

The proliferation of large language models (LLMs) has accelerated the adoption of agent-based workflows, where multiple autonomous agents reason, invoke functions, and collaborate to compose complex data pipelines. However, current…

Databases · Computer Science 2025-12-15 Zoi Kaoudi , Ioana Giurgiu

Estimating uncertainty in Large Language Models (LLMs) is important for properly evaluating LLMs, and ensuring safety for users. However, prior approaches to uncertainty estimation focus on the final answer in generated text, ignoring…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-12-12 Eric Bigelow , Ari Holtzman , Hidenori Tanaka , Tomer Ullman

In the last few decades, uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods have been used widely to ensure the robustness of engineering designs. This chapter aims to detail recent advances in popular uncertainty quantification methods used in…

Computation · Statistics 2022-11-08 Dinesh Kumar , Farid Ahmed , Shoaib Usman , Ayodeji Alajo , Syed Alam

With increasing deployment of machine learning systems in various real-world tasks, there is a greater need for accurate quantification of predictive uncertainty. While the common goal in uncertainty quantification (UQ) in machine learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-22 Youngseog Chung , Ian Char , Han Guo , Jeff Schneider , Willie Neiswanger

This paper explores uncertainty quantification (UQ) as an indicator of the trustworthiness of automated deep-learning (DL) tools in the context of white matter lesion (WML) segmentation from magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans of…

Evaluating Large Language Models (LLMs) as general-purpose agents is essential for understanding their capabilities and facilitating their integration into practical applications. However, the evaluation process presents substantial…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-12-25 Chang Ma , Junlei Zhang , Zhihao Zhu , Cheng Yang , Yujiu Yang , Yaohui Jin , Zhenzhong Lan , Lingpeng Kong , Junxian He

Usability testing is a fundamental yet challenging (e.g., inflexible to iterate the study design flaws and hard to recruit study participants) research method for user experience (UX) researchers to evaluate a web design. Recent advances in…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2025-04-08 Yuxuan Lu , Bingsheng Yao , Hansu Gu , Jing Huang , Jessie Wang , Yang Li , Jiri Gesi , Qi He , Toby Jia-Jun Li , Dakuo Wang

Recent investigations have emphasized the importance of uncertainty quantification (UQ) to describe errors in nuclear theory. We carry out UQ for configuration-interaction shell model calculations in the $1s$-$0d$ valence space,…

Nuclear Theory · Physics 2020-05-20 Jordan M. R. Fox , Calvin W. Johnson , Rodrigo Navarro Perez

As large language models (LLMs) are increasingly integrated into high-stakes decision-making, the ability to reliably quantify uncertainty has become a critical requirement for safety and trust. However, current uncertainty quantification…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-28 Seongjun Lee , Suwan Yoon , Changhee Lee

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in computational chemistry (CC) is still in its infancy. Very few CC methods are designed to provide a confidence level on their predictions, and most users still rely improperly on the mean absolute error as…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2022-03-21 Pascal Pernot

The proliferation of Large Language Model (LLM)-based Graphical User Interface (GUI) agents in web browsing scenarios present complex unintended consequences (UCs). This paper characterizes three UCs from three perspectives: phenomena,…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2025-05-19 Shuning Zhang , Jingruo Chen , Zhiqi Gao , Jiajing Gao , Xin Yi , Hewu Li
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