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Monte Carlo (MC) integration is the de facto method for approximating the predictive distribution of Bayesian neural networks (BNNs). But, even with many MC samples, Gaussian-based BNNs could still yield bad predictive performance due to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-18 Agustinus Kristiadi , Runa Eschenhagen , Philipp Hennig

With current state-of-the-art approaches aimed at enhancing the reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models(LLMs) through iterative preference learning inspired by AlphaZero, we propose to further enhance the step-wise reasoning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-24 Huchen Jiang , Yangyang Ma , Chaofan Ding , Kexin Luan , Xinhan Di

We present two diagrammatic Monte Carlo methods for quantum systems coupled with harmonic baths, whose dynamics are described by integro-differential equations. The first approach can be considered as a reformulation of Dyson series, and…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2023-12-15 Zhenning Cai , Geshuo Wang , Siyao Yang

Leveraging the coherent exploration of Hamiltonian flow, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo produces computationally efficient Monte Carlo estimators, even with respect to complex and high-dimensional target distributions. When confronted with…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-02-06 M. J. Betancourt

This paper proposes a Sequential Monte Carlo approach for the Bayesian estimation of mixed causal and noncausal models. Unlike previous Bayesian estimation methods developed for these models, Sequential Monte Carlo offers extensive…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-08 Gianluca Cubadda , Francesco Giancaterini , Stefano Grassi

The Diffusion Monte Carlo method with constant number of walkers, also called Stochastic Reconfiguration as well as Sequential Monte Carlo, is a widely used Monte Carlo methodology for computing the ground-state energy and wave function of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-12-09 Michel Caffarel , Pierre del Moral , Luc de Montella

Applications that require substantial computational resources today cannot avoid the use of heavily parallel machines. Embracing the opportunities of parallel computing and especially the possibilities provided by a new generation of…

Computational Physics · Physics 2017-09-14 Martin Weigel

Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms are used to simulate from complex statistical distributions by way of a local exploration of these distributions. This local feature avoids heavy requests on understanding the nature of the target, but it…

Computation · Statistics 2018-04-12 Christian P. Robert , Victor Elvira , Nick Tawn , Changye Wu

We propose a generic Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to speed up computations for datasets with many observations. A key feature of our approach is the use of the highly efficient difference estimator from the survey sampling…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-08-03 Matias Quiroz , Mattias Villani , Robert Kohn

In this study, we give an extension of Montanaro's arXiv/archive:1504.06987 quantum Monte Carlo method, tailored for computing expected values of random variables that exhibit infinite variance. This addresses a challenge in analyzing…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2024-03-08 Jose Blanchet , Mario Szegedy , Guanyang Wang

Markov chain Monte Carlo is an inherently serial algorithm. Although likelihood calculations for individual steps can sometimes be parallelized, the serial evolution of the process is widely viewed as incompatible with parallelization,…

Computation · Statistics 2013-12-31 Douglas N. VanDerwerken , Scott C. Schmidler

We consider the problem of optimizing a real-valued continuous function $f$ using a Bayesian approach, where the evaluations of $f$ are chosen sequentially by combining prior information about $f$, which is described by a random process…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2011-11-22 Romain Benassi , Julien Bect , Emmanuel Vazquez

Precision theoretical predictions for high multiplicity scattering rely on the evaluation of increasingly complicated scattering amplitudes which come with an extremely high CPU cost. For state-of-the-art processes this can cause technical…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2020-07-15 Simon Badger , Joseph Bullock

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is computationally intensive for complex model simulators. To exploit expensive simulations, data-resampling via bootstrapping can be employed to obtain many artificial datasets at little cost.…

Computation · Statistics 2021-07-05 Umberto Picchini , Richard G. Everitt

Sequential Monte Carlo Samplers are a class of stochastic algorithms for Monte Carlo integral estimation w.r.t. probability distributions, which combine elements of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods and importance sampling/resampling…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Andreas Eberle , Carlo Marinelli

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) has been widely adopted in the statistics community because of its ability to sample high-dimensional distributions much more efficiently than other Metropolis-based methods. Despite this, HMC often performs…

Computation · Statistics 2019-11-19 Arya A. Pourzanjani , Linda R. Petzold

In this paper, we address a method that integrates reinforcement learning into the Monte Carlo tree search to boost online path planning under fully observable environments for automated parking tasks. Sampling-based planning methods under…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-01-03 Xinlong Zheng , Xiaozhou Zhang , Donghao Xu

Speculative decoding (SD) accelerates language model inference by drafting tokens from a cheap proposal model and verifying them against an expensive target model via rejection sampling. Because rejection truncates the draft block at the…

In a Monte-Carlo test, the observed dataset is fixed, and several resampled or permuted versions of the dataset are generated in order to test a null hypothesis that the original dataset is exchangeable with the resampled/permuted ones.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-05 Lasse Fischer , Aaditya Ramdas

Monte Carlo (MC) dropout is a simple and efficient ensembling method that can improve the accuracy and confidence calibration of high-capacity deep neural network models. However, MC dropout is not as effective as more compute-intensive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-10 Zhilu Zhang , Vianne R. Gao , Mert R. Sabuncu
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