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Predicting causal structure from time series data is crucial for understanding complex phenomena in physiology, brain connectivity, climate dynamics, and socio-economic behaviour. Causal discovery in time series is hindered by the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-06 Pedro P. Sanchez , Damian Machlanski , Steven McDonagh , Sotirios A. Tsaftaris

Autonomous robots are required to reason about the behaviour of dynamic agents in their environment. The creation of models to describe these relationships is typically accomplished through the application of causal discovery techniques.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-03-07 Rhys Howard , Lars Kunze

Harnessing data to discover the underlying governing laws or equations that describe the behavior of complex physical systems can significantly advance our modeling, simulation and understanding of such systems in various science and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-17 Zhao Chen , Yang Liu , Hao Sun

Learning causal structure from observational data is a fundamental challenge in machine learning. However, the majority of commonly used differentiable causal discovery methods are non-identifiable, turning this problem into a continuous…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-30 Yu Wang , An Zhang , Xiang Wang , Yancheng Yuan , Xiangnan He , Tat-Seng Chua

Data-driven modeling of dynamical systems often faces numerous data-related challenges. A fundamental requirement is the existence of a unique set of parameters for a chosen model structure, an issue commonly referred to as identifiability.…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-05-24 Arthur N. Montanari , François Lamoline , Robert Bereza , Jorge Gonçalves

The theory of causal emergence (CE) with effective information (EI) posits that complex systems can exhibit CE, where macro-dynamics show stronger causal effects than micro-dynamics. A key challenge of this theory is its dependence on…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-03-12 Jiang Zhang , Ruyi Tao , Keng Hou Leong , Mingzhe Yang , Bing Yuan

Time series data are found in many areas of healthcare such as medical time series, electronic health records (EHR), measurements of vitals, and wearable devices. Causal discovery, which involves estimating causal relationships from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-18 Muhammad Hasan Ferdous , Uzma Hasan , Md Osman Gani

This article presents a novel method for causal discovery with generalized structural equation models suited for analyzing diverse types of outcomes, including discrete, continuous, and mixed data. Causal discovery often faces challenges…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-26 Minjie Wang , Xiaotong Shen , Wei Pan

In the realm of stock prediction, machine learning models encounter considerable obstacles due to the inherent low signal-to-noise ratio and the nonstationary nature of financial markets. These challenges often result in spurious…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-03-28 Songci Xu , Qiangqiang Cheng , Chi-Guhn Lee

In many scientific fields, the generation and evolution of data are governed by partial differential equations (PDEs) which are typically informed by established physical laws at the macroscopic level to describe general and predictable…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-01 Ziyuan Chen , Shunxing Yan , Fang Yao

This study proposes Evolutionary Causal Discovery (ECD) for causal discovery that tailors response variables, predictor variables, and corresponding operators to research datasets. Utilizing genetic programming for variable relationship…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-26 Ou Deng , Shoji Nishimura , Atsushi Ogihara , Qun Jin

In real-world phenomena which involve mutual influence or causal effects between interconnected units, equilibrium states are typically represented with cycles in graphical models. An expressive class of graphical models, relational causal…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-03-20 Ragib Ahsan , David Arbour , Elena Zheleva

We present a theory of causality in dynamical systems using Koopman operators. Our theory is grounded on a rigorous definition of causal mechanism in dynamical systems given in terms of flow maps. In the Koopman framework, we prove that…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-11-06 Adam Rupe , Derek DeSantis , Craig Bakker , Parvathi Kooloth , Jian Lu

Hybrid models composing mechanistic ODE-based dynamics with flexible and expressive neural network components have grown rapidly in popularity, especially in scientific domains where such ODE-based modeling offers important interpretability…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-02 Bob Junyi Zou , Matthew E. Levine , Dessi P. Zaharieva , Ramesh Johari , Emily B. Fox

Spurred by tremendous success in pattern matching and prediction tasks, researchers increasingly resort to machine learning to aid original scientific discovery. Given large amounts of observational data about a system, can we uncover the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-31 Hananeh Aliee , Fabian J. Theis , Niki Kilbertus

Understanding climate dynamics requires going beyond correlations in observational data to uncover their underlying causal process. Latent drivers, such as atmospheric processes, play a critical role in temporal dynamics, while direct…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-10 Minghao Fu , Biwei Huang , Zijian Li , Yujia Zheng , Ignavier Ng , Guangyi Chen , Yingyao Hu , Kun Zhang

Dynamical systems modeling is a core pillar of scientific inquiry across natural and life sciences. Increasingly, dynamical system models are learned from data, rendering identifiability a paramount concept. For systems that are not…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-11 Cecilia Casolo , Sören Becker , Niki Kilbertus

We introduce an approach to inferring the causal architecture of stochastic dynamical systems that extends rate distortion theory to use causal shielding---a natural principle of learning. We study two distinct cases of causal inference:…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2010-08-23 Susanne Still , James P. Crutchfield , Christopher J. Ellison

We consider graphical models based on a recursive system of linear structural equations. This implies that there is an ordering, $\sigma$, of the variables such that each observed variable $Y_v$ is a linear function of a variable specific…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-28 Y. Samuel Wang , Mathias Drton

Parametric system identification methods estimate the parameters of explicitly defined physical systems from data. Yet, they remain constrained by the need to provide an explicit function space, typically through a predefined library of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-17 Markus W. Baumgartner , Anson Lei , Joe Watson , Ingmar Posner