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Probabilistic modeling enables combining domain knowledge with learning from data, thereby supporting learning from fewer training instances than purely data-driven methods. However, learning probabilistic models is difficult and has not…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-05-17 Avi Pfeffer

Directed networks are conveniently represented as graphs in which ordered edges encode interactions between vertices. Despite their wide availability, there is a shortage of statistical models amenable for inference, specially when…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-04-05 Stefan Stein , Chenlei Leng

Complex biological processes are usually experimented along time among a collection of individuals. Longitudinal data are then available and the statistical challenge is to better understand the underlying biological mechanisms. The…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-06-11 Pierre Barbillon , Célia Barthélémy , Adeline Samson

This paper develops a general theory on rates of convergence of penalized spline estimators for function estimation when the likelihood functional is concave in candidate functions, where the likelihood is interpreted in a broad sense that…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-05-14 Jianhua Z. Huang , Ya Su

For personalized ranking models, the well-calibrated probability of an item being preferred by a user has great practical value. While existing work shows promising results in image classification, probability calibration has not been much…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2022-04-27 Wonbin Kweon , SeongKu Kang , Hwanjo Yu

There exists a range of different models for estimating and simulating credit risk transitions to optimally manage credit risk portfolios and products. In this chapter we present a Coupled Markov Chain approach to model rating transitions…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2014-01-21 Ronald Hochreiter , David Wozabal

We discuss the semiparametric modeling of mark-recapture-recovery data where the temporal and/or individual variation of model parameters is explained via covariates. Typically, in such analyses a fixed (or mixed) effects parametric model…

Applications · Statistics 2015-05-21 Théo Michelot , Roland Langrock , Thomas Kneib , Ruth King

Suppose data are fitted to some parametric model but that the true model happens to be one with an additional parameter. When a parameter is to be estimated one can use likelihood estimation in the wider model or in the narrow model.…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-27 Nils Lid Hjort

We consider high-dimensional generalized linear models when the covariates are contaminated by measurement error. Estimates from errors-in-variables regression models are well-known to be biased in traditional low-dimensional settings if…

Computation · Statistics 2020-01-06 Michael Byrd , Monnie McGee

The pointwise mutual information profile, or simply profile, is the distribution of pointwise mutual information for a given pair of random variables. One of its important properties is that its expected value is precisely the mutual…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-30 Paweł Czyż , Frederic Grabowski , Julia E. Vogt , Niko Beerenwinkel , Alexander Marx

Standard regularized training procedures correspond to maximizing a posterior distribution over parameters, known as maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation. However, model parameters are of interest only insomuch as they combine with the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-28 Shikai Qiu , Tim G. J. Rudner , Sanyam Kapoor , Andrew Gordon Wilson

This paper re-examines the problem of parameter estimation in Bayesian networks with missing values and hidden variables from the perspective of recent work in on-line learning [Kivinen & Warmuth, 1994]. We provide a unified framework for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-02-08 Eric Bauer , Daphne Koller , Yoram Singer

We propose a penalized likelihood framework for estimating multiple precision matrices from different classes. Most existing methods either incorporate no information on relationships between the precision matrices, or require this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-03-03 Bradley S. Price , Aaron J. Molstad , Ben Sherwood

Many applications require that we learn the parameters of a model from data. EM is a method used to learn the parameters of probabilistic models for which the data for some of the variables in the models is either missing or hidden. There…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-01-30 Luis E. Ortiz , Leslie Pack Kaelbling

We address the choice of the tuning parameter $\lambda$ in $\ell_1$-penalized M-estimation. Our main concern is models which are highly nonlinear, such as the Gaussian mixture model. The number of parameters $p$ is moreover large, possibly…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-05-17 Sara van de Geer

The generalized varying coefficient partially linear model with growing number of predictors arises in many contemporary scientific endeavor. In this paper we set foot on both theoretical and practical sides of profile likelihood estimation…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-11-09 C. Lam , J. Fan

Many statistical problems in causal inference involve a probability distribution other than the one from which data are actually observed; as an additional complication, the object of interest is often a marginal quantity of this other…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-24 Robin J. Evans , Vanessa Didelez

Accurate estimates of long-term risk probabilities and their gradients are critical for many stochastic safe control methods. However, computing such risk probabilities in real-time and in unseen or changing environments is challenging.…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-08-20 Zhuoyuan Wang , Yorie Nakahira

We consider the problem of estimating parameters of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) with discrete-time observations that are either completely or partially observed. The transition density between two observations is generally…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-09-09 Libo Sun , Chihoon Lee , Jennifer A. Hoeting

Statistical methods with empirical likelihood (EL) are appealing and effective especially in conjunction with estimating equations through which useful data information can be adaptively and flexibly incorporated. It is also known in the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-12-21 Jinyuan Chang , Cheng Yong Tang , Tong Tong Wu
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