Related papers: Bayes, E-values and Testing
In this study, we introduce a novel methodological framework called Bayesian Penalized Empirical Likelihood (BPEL), designed to address the computational challenges inherent in empirical likelihood (EL) approaches. Our approach has two…
Conformal prediction (CP) gives distribution-free coverage for modern vision and language models, but it is often forced to make a ranking decision from a single unstable nonconformity score. Standard CP uses one realization, while…
In this paper we consider the problem of inference in statistical models characterized by moment restrictions by casting the problem within the Exponentially Tilted Empirical Likelihood (ETEL) framework. Because the ETEL function has a well…
In Bayesian statistics, the marginal likelihood, also known as the evidence, is used to evaluate model fit as it quantifies the joint probability of the data under the prior. In contrast, non-Bayesian models are typically compared using…
Unnormalized probability distributions are frequently used in machine learning for modeling complex data generating processes. Though Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms can approximately sample from unnormalized distributions,…
Estimation of reliability and hazard rate is one of the most important problems raised in many applications especially in engineering studies as well as human lifetime. In this regard, different methods of estimation have been used. Each…
With the increase in availability of large pre-trained language models (LMs) in Natural Language Processing (NLP), it becomes critical to assess their fit for a specific target task a priori - as fine-tuning the entire space of available…
Simulation models often lack tractable likelihood functions, making likelihood-free inference methods indispensable. Approximate Bayesian computation generates likelihood-free posterior samples by comparing simulated and observed data…
When variable selection methods are applied to bootstrapped and multiply imputed datasets, the set of selected variables typically varies across iterations. Aggregating results via the union rule can lead to overly dense models. We propose…
How do we compare between hypotheses that are entirely consistent with observations? The marginal likelihood (aka Bayesian evidence), which represents the probability of generating our observations from a prior, provides a distinctive…
Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) elicits long chain-of-thought reasoning in large language models (LLMs), but outcome-based rewards lead to coarse-grained advantage estimation. While existing approaches improve RLVR via…
The context tree source is a source model in which the occurrence probability of symbols is determined from a finite past sequence, and is a broader class of sources that includes i.i.d. and Markov sources. The proposed source model in this…
In the first part of this paper, we study RBSDEs in the case where the filtration is not quasi-left continuous and the lower obstacle is given by a predictable process. We prove the existence and uniqueness by using some results of optimal…
Linear programming is widely used for decision-making in science, engineering, and operations research, yet in many modern applications the coefficients entering the constraints and objective are not known exactly and must be learned from…
Intuitive human-machine interfaces may be developed using pattern classification to estimate executed human motions from electromyogram (EMG) signals generated during muscle contraction. The continual use of EMG-based interfaces gradually…
We define the notion of compiling a Bayesian network with evidence and provide a specific approach for evidence-based compilation, which makes use of logical processing. The approach is practical and advantageous in a number of application…
Bayesian supervised predictive classifiers, hypothesis testing, and parametric estimation under Partition Exchangeability are implemented. The two classifiers presented are the marginal classifier (that assumes test data is i.i.d.) next to…
How can we monitor, in real time, whether one uncertain prospect has any upside over another? To answer this question, we develop a novel family of sequential, anytime-valid tests for stochastic dominance (SD; also known as stochastic…
In an empirical Bayesian setting, we provide a new multiple testing method, useful when an additional covariate is available, that influences the probability of each null hypothesis being true. We measure the posterior significance of each…
We propose an e-value based framework for testing arbitrary composite nulls against composite alternatives, when an $\epsilon$ fraction of the data can be arbitrarily corrupted. Our tests are inherently sequential, being valid at arbitrary…