Related papers: Bayesian Conformal Prediction as a Decision Risk P…
A natural way to quantify uncertainties in Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) is through Bayesian methods. That said, sampling from the joint posterior distribution of GMMs via standard Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) imposes several…
Conformal Prediction (CP) has proven to be an effective post-hoc method for improving the trustworthiness of neural networks by providing prediction sets with finite-sample guarantees. However, under adversarial attacks, classical conformal…
Conformal prediction offers a powerful framework for building distribution-free prediction intervals for exchangeable data. Existing methods that extend conformal prediction to sequential data rely on fitting a relatively complex model to…
A reliable representation of uncertainty is essential for the application of modern machine learning methods in safety-critical settings. In this regard, the use of credal sets (i.e., convex sets of probability distributions) has recently…
Conformal prediction provides distribution-free prediction sets with finite-sample conditional guarantees. We build upon the RKHS-based framework of Gibbs et al. (2023), which leverages families of covariate shifts to provide approximate…
Modern neural networks have found to be miscalibrated in terms of confidence calibration, i.e., their predicted confidence scores do not reflect the observed accuracy or precision. Recent work has introduced methods for post-hoc confidence…
Conformal prediction methods create prediction bands with distribution-free guarantees but do not explicitly capture epistemic uncertainty, which can lead to overconfident predictions in data-sparse regions. Although recent conformal scores…
In many fairness and distribution robustness problems, one has access to labeled data from multiple source distributions yet the test data may come from an arbitrary member or a mixture of them. We study the problem of constructing a…
Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is typically used when the likelihood is either unavailable or intractable but where data can be simulated under different parameter settings using a forward model. Despite the recent interest in ABC,…
This paper presents an innovative approach, called credal wrapper, to formulating a credal set representation of model averaging for Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) and deep ensembles (DEs), capable of improving uncertainty estimation in…
In black-box function optimization, we need to consider not only controllable design variables but also uncontrollable stochastic environment variables. In such cases, it is necessary to solve the optimization problem by taking into account…
We extend the work of Hahn and Carvalho (2015) and develop a doubly-regularized sparse regression estimator by synthesizing Bayesian regularization with penalized least squares within a decision-theoretic framework. In contrast to existing…
Deep learning (DL)-based methods have achieved state-of-the-art performance for many medical image segmentation tasks. Nevertheless, recent studies show that deep neural networks (DNNs) can be miscalibrated and overconfident, leading to…
This tutorial focuses on efficient methods to predictive monitoring (PM), the problem of detecting at runtime future violations of a given requirement from the current state of a system. While performing model checking at runtime would…
We consider the problem of computing reach-avoid probabilities for iterative predictions made with Bayesian neural network (BNN) models. Specifically, we leverage bound propagation techniques and backward recursion to compute lower bounds…
This paper reviews background and examples of Bayesian predictive synthesis (BPS), and develops details in a subset of BPS mixture models. BPS expands on standard Bayesian model uncertainty analysis for model mixing to provide a broader…
PAC-Bayesian set up involves a stochastic classifier characterized by a posterior distribution on a classifier set, offers a high probability bound on its averaged true risk and is robust to the training sample used. For a given posterior,…
Bayesian model selection is premised on the assumption that the data are generated from one of the postulated models. However, in many applications, all of these models are incorrect (that is, there is misspecification). When the models are…
We present Distribution-aware Conformal Prediction (DCP), a unified framework integrating probabilistic predictors like Monte Carlo dropout, deep ensembles, and quantile regression with score-agnostic conformal calibration to produce valid…
We develop a new approach to multi-label conformal prediction in which we aim to output a precise set of promising prediction candidates with a bounded number of incorrect answers. Standard conformal prediction provides the ability to adapt…