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Panel data, in which multiple units are repeatedly observed over time, arise throughout science and engineering. Quantifying predictive uncertainty in such settings is challenging because conformal prediction, while distribution-free and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-19 Daohong Tu , Kay Giesecke

We consider a fair resource allocation problem in the no-regret setting against an unrestricted adversary. The objective is to allocate resources equitably among several agents in an online fashion so that the difference of the aggregate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-14 Abhishek Sinha , Ativ Joshi , Rajarshi Bhattacharjee , Cameron Musco , Mohammad Hajiesmaili

We present new efficient \textit{projection-free} algorithms for online convex optimization (OCO), where by projection-free we refer to algorithms that avoid computing orthogonal projections onto the feasible set, and instead relay on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-21 Dan Garber , Ben Kretzu

Existing algorithms for online conformal prediction -- guaranteeing marginal coverage in adversarial settings -- are variants of online gradient descent (OGD), but their analyses of worst-case coverage do not follow from the regret…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-18 Ramya Ramalingam , Shayan Kiyani , Aaron Roth

Conformal prediction is a framework for uncertainty quantification that constructs prediction sets for previously unseen data, guaranteeing coverage of the true label with a specified probability. However, the efficiency of these prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-06 Erfan Hajihashemi , Yanning Shen

Conformal prediction (CP) quantifies the uncertainty of machine learning models by constructing sets of plausible outputs. These sets are constructed by leveraging a so-called conformity score, a quantity computed using the input point of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-07 Michal Klein , Louis Bethune , Eugene Ndiaye , Marco Cuturi

Consider betting against a sequence of data in $[0,1]$, where one is allowed to make any bet that is fair if the data have a conditional mean $m_0 \in (0,1)$. Cover's universal portfolio algorithm delivers a worst-case regret of $O(\ln n)$…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Shubhada Agrawal , Aaditya Ramdas

In this paper, we broaden the horizon of online convex optimization (OCO), and consider multi-objective OCO, where there are $K$ distinct loss function sequences, and an algorithm has to choose its action at time $t$, before the $K$ loss…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-11 Rahul Vaze , Sumiran Mishra

A classic problem in statistics is the estimation of the expectation of random variables from samples. This gives rise to the tightly connected problems of deriving concentration inequalities and confidence sequences, that is confidence…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-08-02 Francesco Orabona , Kwang-Sung Jun

A natural goal when designing online learning algorithms for non-stationary environments is to bound the regret of the algorithm in terms of the temporal variation of the input sequence. Intuitively, when the variation is small, it should…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-08 Gautam Goel , Babak Hassibi

The design of effective online caching policies is an increasingly important problem for content distribution networks, online social networks and edge computing services, among other areas. This paper proposes a new algorithmic toolbox for…

Networking and Internet Architecture · Computer Science 2022-09-28 Naram Mhaisen , George Iosifidis , Douglas Leith

We revisit the problem of \textit{online linear optimization} in case the set of feasible actions is accessible through an approximated linear optimization oracle with a factor $\alpha$ multiplicative approximation guarantee. This setting…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-09-12 Dan Garber

Online convex optimization (OCO) is a widely used framework in online learning. In each round, the learner chooses a decision in a convex set and an adversary chooses a convex loss function, and then the learner suffers the loss associated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-02 Raunak Kumar , Sarah Dean , Robert Kleinberg

Ordinal classification has been widely applied in many high-stakes applications, e.g., medical imaging and diagnosis, where reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for decision making. Conformal prediction (CP) is a general UQ…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-24 Zijian Zhang , Xinyu Chen , Yuanjie Shi , Liyuan Lillian Ma , Zifan Xu , Yan Yan

Solving Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) is hard. Learning optimal controllers for POMDPs when the model is unknown is harder. Online learning of optimal controllers for unknown POMDPs, which requires efficient…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-16 Mehdi Jafarnia-Jahromi , Rahul Jain , Ashutosh Nayyar

In a supervised online setting, quantifying uncertainty has been proposed in the seminal work of \cite{gibbs2021adaptive}. For any given point-prediction algorithm, their method (ACI) produces a conformal prediction set with an average…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-24 Pierre Humbert , Ulysse Gazin , Ruth Heller , Etienne Roquain

We consider online learning for episodic stochastically constrained Markov decision processes (CMDPs), which plays a central role in ensuring the safety of reinforcement learning. Here the loss function can vary arbitrarily across the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-19 Shuang Qiu , Xiaohan Wei , Zhuoran Yang , Jieping Ye , Zhaoran Wang

A well-studied generalization of the standard online convex optimization (OCO) framework is constrained online convex optimization (COCO). In COCO, on every round, a convex cost function and a convex constraint function are revealed to the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-29 Abhishek Sinha , Rahul Vaze

This paper proposes a new family of algorithms for the online optimisation of composite objectives. The algorithms can be interpreted as the combination of the exponentiated gradient and $p$-norm algorithm. Combined with algorithmic ideas…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-08-09 Weijia Shao , Fikret Sivrikaya , Sahin Albayrak

We study Online Linear Programming (OLP) with batching. The planning horizon is cut into $K$ batches, and the decisions on customers arriving within a batch can be delayed to the end of their associated batch. Compared with OLP without…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-02 Haoran Xu , Peter W. Glynn , Yinyu Ye