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Time series forecasting plays a crucial role in decision-making across many real-world applications. Despite substantial progress, most existing methods still treat forecasting as a static, single-pass regression problem. In contrast, human…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-13 Xiaohan Zhang , Tian Gao , Mingyue Cheng , Bokai Pan , Ze Guo , Yaguo Liu , Xiaoyu Tao , Qi Liu

While Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have demonstrated exceptional performance in generalized forecasting, their performance often degrades significantly when deployed in real-world vertical domains characterized by temporal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-17 Xiaoyun Yu , Li fan , Xiangfei Qiu , Nanqing Dong , Yonggui Huang , Honggang Qi , Geguang Pu , Wanli Ouyang , Xi Chen , Jilin Hu

Deep learning has achieved strong performance in Time Series Forecasting (TSF). However, we identify a critical representation paradox, termed Latent Chaos: models with accurate predictions often learn latent representations that are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-13 Jie Yang , Yifan Hu , Yuante Li , Kexin Zhang , Kaize Ding , Philip S. Yu

Time series forecasting (TSF) is a fundamental and widely studied task, spanning methods from classical statistical approaches to modern deep learning and multimodal language modeling. Despite their effectiveness, these methods often follow…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-23 Mingyue Cheng , Jiahao Wang , Daoyu Wang , Xiaoyu Tao , Qi Liu , Enhong Chen

The reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs) have significantly advanced their performance by enabling in-depth understanding of diverse tasks. With growing interest in applying LLMs to the time series domain, this has proven…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-06-03 Jiahui Zhou , Dan Li , Lin Li , Zhuomin Chen , Shunyu Wu , Haozheng Ye , Jian Lou , Costas J. Spanos

Time series reasoning is crucial to decision-making in diverse domains, including finance, energy usage, traffic, weather, and scientific discovery. While existing time series foundation models (TSFMs) can capture low-level dynamic patterns…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-07 Fangxu Yu , Hongyu Zhao , Tianyi Zhou

Time series forecasting underpins applications in finance, healthcare, and environmental monitoring. Despite the success of Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs), existing approaches operate in a unimodal setting and rely on static prompts…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-03-10 Sehyuk Park , Soyeon Caren Han , Eduard Hovy

Time series forecasting (TSF) is a central problem in time series analysis. However, as the number of channels in time series datasets scales to the thousands or more, a scenario we define as High-Dimensional Time Series Forecasting…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-30 Juntong Ni , Shiyu Wang , Zewen Liu , Xiaoming Shi , Xinyue Zhong , Zhou Ye , Wei Jin

Time series forecasting has long been dominated by model-centric approaches that formulate prediction as a single-pass mapping from historical observations to future values. Despite recent progress, such formulations often struggle in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-17 Xiaoyu Tao , Mingyue Cheng , Chuang Jiang , Tian Gao , Huanjian Zhang , Yaguo Liu

To advance time series forecasting (TSF), various methods have been proposed to improve prediction accuracy, evolving from statistical techniques to data-driven deep learning architectures. Despite their effectiveness, most existing methods…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Yitong Zhou , Yucong Luo , Mingyue Cheng , Qi Liu , Jiahao Wang , Daoyu Wang , Enhong Chen

Large Language Models (LLMs) still suffer from severe hallucinations and catastrophic forgetting during causal reasoning over massive, fragmented long contexts. Existing memory mechanisms typically treat retrieval as a static, single-step…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2026-05-19 Haodong Lei , Junming Liu , Yirong Chen , Ding Wang , Hongsong Wang

Time series forecasting plays a vital role in supporting decision-making across a wide range of critical applications, including energy, healthcare, and finance. Despite recent advances, forecasting accuracy remains limited due to the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-14 Xiaoyu Tao , Shilong Zhang , Mingyue Cheng , Daoyu Wang , Tingyue Pan , Bokai Pan , Changqing Zhang , Shijin Wang

Process Model Forecasting (PMF) aims to predict how the control-flow structure of a process evolves over time by modeling the temporal dynamics of directly-follows (DF) relations, complementing predictive process monitoring that focuses on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-09 Yongbo Yu , Jari Peeperkorn , Johannes De Smedt , Jochen De Weerdt

Large pre-trained time series foundation models (TSFMs) have demonstrated promising zero-shot performance across a wide range of domains. However, a question remains: Do TSFMs succeed by memorizing patterns in training data, or do they…

Forecasting Multivariate Time Series (MTS) involves significant challenges in various application domains. One immediate challenge is modeling temporal patterns with the finite length of the input. These temporal patterns usually involve…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-30 Muyao Wang , Wenchao Chen , Zhibin Duan , Bo Chen

Traditional recurrent neural network architectures, such as long short-term memory neural networks (LSTM), have historically held a prominent role in time series forecasting (TSF) tasks. While the recently introduced sLSTM for Natural…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-25 Yaxuan Kong , Zepu Wang , Yuqi Nie , Tian Zhou , Stefan Zohren , Yuxuan Liang , Peng Sun , Qingsong Wen

Time-series reasoning remains a significant challenge in multimodal large language models (MLLMs) due to the dynamic temporal patterns, ambiguous semantics, and lack of temporal priors. In this work, we introduce TimeMaster, a reinforcement…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-17 Junru Zhang , Lang Feng , Xu Guo , Yuhan Wu , Yabo Dong , Duanqing Xu

Time series forecasting is a long-standing and highly challenging research topic. Recently, driven by the rise of large language models (LLMs), research has increasingly shifted from purely time series methods toward harnessing textual…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-09-03 Shiqiao Zhou , Holger Schöner , Huanbo Lyu , Edouard Fouché , Shuo Wang

Language models (LMs) trained on web-scale datasets are largely successful due to their ability to memorize large amounts of training data, even if only present in a few examples. These capabilities are often desirable in evaluation on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-04 Elvis Hsieh , Preston Fu , Jonathan Chen

In this paper, we introduce Masked Multi-Step Multivariate Forecasting (MMMF), a novel and general self-supervised learning framework for time series forecasting with known future information. In many real-world forecasting scenarios, some…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-30 Yiwei Fu , Honggang Wang , Nurali Virani
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