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Randomized experiments on a network often involve interference between connected units; i.e., a situation in which an individual's treatment can affect the response of another individual. Current approaches to deal with interference, in…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-05-17 Guillaume Basse , Edoardo Airoldi

Most work in causal inference considers deterministic interventions that set each unit's treatment to some fixed value. However, under positivity violations these interventions can lead to non-identification, inefficiency, and effects with…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-06-20 Edward H. Kennedy

Many real-world systems can be usefully represented as sets of interacting components. Examples include computational systems, such as query processors and compilers, natural systems, such as cells and ecosystems, and social systems, such…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-03-18 Purva Pruthi , David Jensen

This paper proposes a flexible new framework for constructing Neyman-orthogonal scores in semiparametric models involving infinite-dimensional nuisance parameters. While locally estimation is vital for integrating machine learning into…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-30 Kun Ren , Wen Su , Li Liu , Ian W. McKeague , Xingqiu Zhao

Causal inference is often portrayed as fundamentally distinct from predictive modeling, with its own terminology, goals, and intellectual challenges. But at its core, causal inference is simply a structured instance of prediction under…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-10 Carlos Fernández-Loría

Matching in causal inference from observational data aims to construct treatment and control groups with similar distributions of covariates, thereby reducing confounding and ensuring an unbiased estimation of treatment effects. This…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-04-15 Sahil Shikalgar , Md. Noor-E-Alam

We develop a framework for causal inference with continuous spatiotemporal point-process outcomes under cell-level interventions and outcome spillover. Potential outcomes are indexed by full treatment allocations, and the observed…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-15 Conor Kresin , Duncan A. Clark , Louis Davis , Martin Hazelton

Scientific discovery catalyzes human intellectual advances, driven by the cycle of hypothesis generation, experimental design, evaluation, and assumption refinement. Central to this process is causal inference, uncovering the mechanisms…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-26 Ivaxi Sheth , Sahar Abdelnabi , Mario Fritz

Convenient access to observational data enables us to learn causal effects without randomized experiments. This research direction draws increasing attention in research areas such as economics, healthcare, and education. For example, we…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2019-12-03 Ruocheng Guo , Jundong Li , Huan Liu

Recently, there has been great interest in estimating the conditional average treatment effect using flexible machine learning methods. However, in practice, investigators often have working hypotheses about effect heterogeneity across…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-13 Chan Park , Hyunseung Kang

It is important to draw causal inference from observational studies, which, however, becomes challenging if the confounders have missing values. Generally, causal effects are not identifiable if the confounders are missing not at random. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-04 Shu Yang , Linbo Wang , Peng Ding

Methods that rely on proxies, without imposing strong parametric structure, are increasingly used to deal with unobserved variables in causal inference. One influential line of this work reconstructs latent distributions used to identify…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-12 Helen Guo , Ilya Shpitser , Elizabeth L. Ogburn

Causal effect moderation investigates how the effect of interventions (or treatments) on outcome variables changes based on observed characteristics of individuals, known as potential effect moderators. With advances in data collection,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-26 Soham Bakshi , Walter Dempsey , Snigdha Panigrahi

When drawing causal inference from observational data, there is always concern about unmeasured confounding. One way to tackle this is to conduct a sensitivity analysis. One widely-used sensitivity analysis framework hypothesizes the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-22 Bo Zhang , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen

The notion of causal effect is fundamental across many scientific disciplines. Traditionally, quantitative researchers have studied causal effects at the level of variables; for example, how a certain drug dose (W) causally affects a…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-07 Junhyung Park , Yuqing Zhou

This work extends causal inference with stochastic confounders. We propose a new approach to variational estimation for causal inference based on a representer theorem with a random input space. We estimate causal effects involving latent…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-01-26 Thanh Vinh Vo , Pengfei Wei , Wicher Bergsma , Tze-Yun Leong

In social sciences and economics, causal inference traditionally focuses on assessing the impact of predefined treatments (or interventions) on predefined outcomes, such as the effect of education programs on earnings. Causal discovery, in…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-07-12 Martin Huber

Causal inference is crucial for understanding the true impact of interventions, policies, or actions, enabling informed decision-making and providing insights into the underlying mechanisms that shape our world. In this paper, we establish…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-26 Jingyue Huang , Changbao Wu , Leilei Zeng

Recent critiques of Physics Education Research (PER) studies have revoiced the critical issues when drawing causal inferences from observational data where no intervention is present. In response to a call for a "causal reasoning primer",…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-25 Vidushi Adlakha , Eric Kuo

This article considers causal inference for treatment contrasts from a randomized experiment using potential outcomes in a finite population setting. Adopting a Neymanian repeated sampling approach that integrates such causal inference with…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-06-17 Rahul Mukerjee , Tirthankar Dasgupta , Donald B. Rubin