Related papers: Reliable Real-Time Value at Risk Estimation via Qu…
The Value-at-Risk (VaR) and the Expected Shortfall (ES) are the two most popular risk measures in banking and insurance regulation. To bridge between the two regulatory risk measures, the Probability Equivalent Level of VaR-ES (PELVE) was…
Offline reinforcement learning (RL) enables policy learning from fixed datasets without further environment interaction, making it particularly valuable in high-risk or costly domains. Extreme $Q$-Learning (XQL) is a recent offline RL…
Online learning updates models incrementally with new data, avoiding large storage requirements and costly model recalculations. In this paper, we introduce "OLR-WA; OnLine Regression with Weighted Average", a novel and versatile…
In this paper, a new way to integrate volatility information for estimating value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) of a portfolio is suggested. The new method is developed from the perspective of Bayesian statistics and it…
The popular systemic risk measure CoVaR (conditional Value-at-Risk) and its variants are widely used in economics and finance. In this article, we propose joint dynamic forecasting models for the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and CoVaR. The CoVaR…
We introduce a proxy-reliance-controlled conformal recalibration framework for one-sided Value-at-Risk (VaR), and study a question that existing state-aware methods do not usually isolate: how strongly should the recalibration adjustment…
Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) is a central tail-risk measure in stochastic structural mechanics, yet its accurate evaluation under high-dimensional, spatially correlated material uncertainty remains computationally prohibitive for…
The joint Value at Risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) quantile regression model of Taylor (2017) is extended via incorporating a realized measure, to drive the tail risk dynamics, as a potentially more efficient driver than daily…
We propose a non-asymptotic convergence analysis of a two-step approach to learn a conditional value-at-risk (VaR) and a conditional expected shortfall (ES) using Rademacher bounds, in a non-parametric setup allowing for heavy-tails on the…
Quantification of risk positions under model uncertainty is of crucial importance from both viewpoints of external regulation and internal management. The concept of model uncertainty, sometimes also referred to as model ambiguity. Although…
Using Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the Value at Risk (VaR) as a possible risk measure requires adequate techniques. One of these techniques is the application of a compound distribution for the aggregates in a portfolio. In this…
This work proposes a conformal approach for energy storage arbitrage to control the downside risk arising from imperfect price forecasts. Energy storage arbitrage relies solely on predictions of future market prices, while inaccurate price…
Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) are two risk measures which are widely used in the practice of risk management. This paper deals with the problem of computing both VaR and CVaR using stochastic approximation (with…
Real-time coordination of distributed energy resources (DERs) is crucial for regulating the voltage profile in distribution grids. By capitalizing on a scalable neural network (NN) architecture, one can attain decentralized DER decisions to…
Offline safe reinforcement learning(OSRL) derives constraint-satisfying policies from pre-collected datasets, offers a promising avenue for deploying RL in safety-critical real-world domains such as robotics. However, the majority of…
Training Reinforcement Learning (RL) agents in high-stakes applications might be too prohibitive due to the risk associated to exploration. Thus, the agent can only use data previously collected by safe policies. While previous work…
In this paper, we introduce an efficient and end-to-end quantum algorithm tailored for computing the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and conditional Value-at-Risk (CVar) for a portfolio of European options. Our focus is on leveraging quantum…
We propose a multilevel stochastic approximation (MLSA) scheme for the computation of the value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) of a financial loss, which can only be computed via simulations conditionally on the realisation of…
Accurate tree height estimation is vital for ecological monitoring and biomass assessment. We apply quantile regression to existing tree height estimation models based on satellite data to incorporate uncertainty quantification. Most…
Quantile estimation is a problem presented in fields such as quality control, hydrology, and economics. There are different techniques to estimate such quantiles. Nevertheless, these techniques use an overall fit of the sample when the…