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Randomized experiments have long been the gold standard for scientists seeking to learn about cause and effect. When randomized experiments are infeasible, scientists often resort to observational studies, which are widely available and…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-13 Bohan Wu , Sebastian Salazar , Donald P. Green , David M. Blei

Bayesian observer and actor models have provided normative explanations for many behavioral phenomena in perception, sensorimotor control, and other areas of cognitive science and neuroscience. They attribute behavioral variability and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-03 Dominik Straub , Tobias F. Niehues , Jan Peters , Constantin A. Rothkopf

We propose the use of Bayesian networks, which provide both a mean value and an uncertainty estimate as output, to enhance the safety of learned control policies under circumstances in which a test-time input differs significantly from the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-02-18 Keuntaek Lee , Kamil Saigol , Evangelos A. Theodorou

We study the problem of non-Bayesian social learning with uncertain models, in which a network of agents seek to cooperatively identify the state of the world based on a sequence of observed signals. In contrast with the existing…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-09-11 César A. Uribe , James Z. Hare , Lance Kaplan , Ali Jadbabaie

This paper presents a Bayesian generative model for dependent Cox point processes, alongside an efficient inference scheme which scales as if the point processes were modelled independently. We can handle missing data naturally, infer…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-07-28 Tom Gunter , Chris Lloyd , Michael A. Osborne , Stephen J. Roberts

We show that density models describing multiple observables with (i) hard boundaries and (ii) dependence on external parameters may be created using an auto-regressive Gaussian mixture model. The model is designed to capture how observable…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2022-02-01 Stephen B. Menary , Darren D. Price

Bayesian inference for neural networks, or Bayesian deep learning, has the potential to provide well-calibrated predictions with quantified uncertainty and robustness. However, the main hurdle for Bayesian deep learning is its computational…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-09-07 Sanket Jantre , Nathan M. Urban , Xiaoning Qian , Byung-Jun Yoon

Recent advances in the field of meta-learning have tackled domains consisting of large numbers of small ("few-shot") supervised learning tasks. Meta-learning algorithms must be able to rapidly adapt to any individual few-shot task, fitting…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-22 Vivek Myers , Nikhil Sardana

Meta-learning methods perform well on new within-distribution tasks but often fail when adapting to out-of-distribution target tasks, where transfer from source tasks can induce negative transfer. We propose a causally-aware Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-24 Lotta Mäkinen , Jorge Loría , Samuel Kaski

For tasks where the dynamics of multiple agents are physically coupled, e.g., in cooperative manipulation, the coordination between the individual agents becomes crucial, which requires exact knowledge of the interaction dynamics. This…

Robotics · Computer Science 2022-06-29 Pablo Budde gen. Dohmann , Armin Lederer , Marcel Dißemond , Sandra Hirche

Learning from demonstrations has gained increasing interest in the recent past, enabling an agent to learn how to make decisions by observing an experienced teacher. While many approaches have been proposed to solve this problem, there is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-02-28 Jürgen Hahn , Abdelhak M. Zoubir

Bayesian inversion is central to the quantification of uncertainty within problems arising from numerous applications in science and engineering. To formulate the approach, four ingredients are required: a forward model mapping the unknown…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-15 O. Deniz Akyildiz , Mark Girolami , Andrew M. Stuart , Arnaud Vadeboncoeur

This work proposes a Bayesian inference method for the reduced-order modeling of time-dependent systems. Informed by the structure of the governing equations, the task of learning a reduced-order model from data is posed as a Bayesian…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-01-18 Mengwu Guo , Shane A. McQuarrie , Karen E. Willcox

Artificial Neural Networks are connectionist systems that perform a given task by learning on examples without having prior knowledge about the task. This is done by finding an optimal point estimate for the weights in every node.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-01-10 Kumar Shridhar , Felix Laumann , Marcus Liwicki

In this paper, we present a Bayesian view on model-based reinforcement learning. We use expert knowledge to impose structure on the transition model and present an efficient learning scheme based on variational inference. This scheme is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-07-12 Markus Kaiser , Clemens Otte , Thomas Runkler , Carl Henrik Ek

Intelligent real-world systems critically depend on expressive information about their system state and changing operation conditions, e.g., due to variation in temperature, location, wear, or aging. To provide this information, online…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-09-17 Jan-Hendrik Ewering , Björn Volkmann , Simon F. G. Ehlers , Thomas Seel , Michael Meindl

Foundational image-language models have generated considerable interest due to their efficient adaptation to downstream tasks by prompt learning. Prompt learning treats part of the language model input as trainable while freezing the rest,…

The global inducing point variational approximation for BNNs is based on using a set of inducing inputs to construct a series of conditional distributions that accurately approximate the conditionals of the true posterior distribution. Our…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-25 Matthew Ashman , Tommy Rochussen , Adrian Weller

As models of cognition grow in complexity and number of parameters, Bayesian inference with standard methods can become intractable, especially when the data-generating model is of unknown analytic form. Recent advances in simulation-based…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-14 Stefan T. Radev , Andreas Voss , Eva Marie Wieschen , Paul-Christian Bürkner

This paper, which is Part 1 of a two-part paper series, considers a simulation-based inference with learned summary statistics, in which such a learned summary statistic serves as an empirical-likelihood with ameliorative effects in the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-02 Getachew K. Befekadu