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Pricing options is an important problem in financial engineering. In many scenarios of practical interest, financial option prices associated to an underlying asset reduces to computing an expectation w.r.t.~a diffusion process. In general,…

Computation · Statistics 2016-08-12 Deborshee Sen , Ajay Jasra , Yan Zhou

Inference-time scaling has recently emerged as a powerful paradigm for improving the reasoning capability of large language models. Among various approaches, Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) has become a particularly important framework,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Youheng Zhu , Yiping Lu

We introduce a new class of sequential Monte Carlo methods which reformulates the essence of the nested sampling method of Skilling (2006) in terms of sequential Monte Carlo techniques. Two new algorithms are proposed, nested sampling via…

This paper is concerned with differentiable resampling in the context of sequential Monte Carlo (e.g., particle filtering). Drawing on reparametrisation, we propose a new resampling method that is informative and instantly differentiable,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-29 Jennifer Rosina Andersson , Zheng Zhao

To sample from a general target distribution $p_*\propto e^{-f_*}$ beyond the isoperimetric condition, Huang et al. (2023) proposed to perform sampling through reverse diffusion, giving rise to Diffusion-based Monte Carlo (DMC).…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-01-15 Xunpeng Huang , Difan Zou , Hanze Dong , Yian Ma , Tong Zhang

We introduce methodology for real-time inference in general-state-space hidden Markov models. Specifically, we extend recent advances in controlled sequential Monte Carlo (CSMC) methods-originally proposed for offline smoothing-to the…

Computation · Statistics 2025-08-04 Liwen Xue , Axel Finke , Adam M. Johansen

We propose nested sequential Monte Carlo (NSMC), a methodology to sample from sequences of probability distributions, even where the random variables are high-dimensional. NSMC generalises the SMC framework by requiring only approximate,…

Computation · Statistics 2015-09-14 Christian A. Naesseth , Fredrik Lindsten , Thomas B. Schön

Renewal models are widely used in statistical epidemiology as semi-mechanistic models of disease transmission. While primarily used for estimating the instantaneous reproduction number, they can also be used for generating projections,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-25 Nicholas Steyn , Kris V. Parag , Robin N. Thompson , Christl A. Donnelly

This paper develops a novel sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) approach for joint state and parameter estimation that can deal efficiently with abruptly changing parameters which is a common case when tracking maneuvering targets. The approach…

Computation · Statistics 2015-10-12 Christopher Nemeth , Paul Fearnhead , Lyudmila Mihaylova

Diffusion-based Large Language Models (dLLMs) have emerged as a competitive alternative to autoregressive models, offering unique advantages through bidirectional attention and parallel generation paradigms. However, the generation results…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-07 Yifeng Gao , Ziang Ji , Yuxuan Wang , Biqing Qi , Hanlin Xu , Linfeng Zhang

Large language models (LLMs) have shown strong performance in many reasoning benchmarks. However, recent studies have pointed to memorization, rather than generalization, as one of the leading causes for such performance. LLMs, in fact, are…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-09-19 Xingwei Tan , Marco Valentino , Mahmud Akhter , Maria Liakata , Nikolaos Aletras

Masked Diffusion Language Models (MDLMs) enable parallel token decoding, providing a promising alternative to the sequential nature of autoregressive generation. However, their iterative denoising process remains computationally expensive…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-03-10 Younjoo Lee , Junghoo Lee , Seungkyun Dan , Jaiyoung Park , Jung Ho Ahn

Particle smoothers are SMC (Sequential Monte Carlo) algorithms designed to approximate the joint distribution of the states given observations from a state-space model. We propose dSMC (de-Sequentialized Monte Carlo), a new particle…

Computation · Statistics 2022-02-07 Adrien Corenflos , Nicolas Chopin , Simo Särkkä

Diffusion transformers enable flexible generative modeling for video. However, it is still technically challenging and computationally expensive to generate high-resolution videos with rich semantics and complex motion. Similar to…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-12-16 Xunnong Xu , Mengying Cao

This paper proposes a Sequential Monte Carlo approach for the Bayesian estimation of mixed causal and noncausal models. Unlike previous Bayesian estimation methods developed for these models, Sequential Monte Carlo offers extensive…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-08 Gianluca Cubadda , Francesco Giancaterini , Stefano Grassi

In this article we consider the approximation of expectations w.r.t. probability distributions associated to the solution of partial differential equations (PDEs); this scenario appears routinely in Bayesian inverse problems. In practice,…

Computation · Statistics 2017-02-07 Alexandros Beskos , Ajay Jasra , Kody Law , Raul Tempone , Yan Zhou

Diffusion language models (DLMs) are an attractive alternative to autoregressive models because they promise sublinear-time, parallel generation, yet practical gains remain elusive as high-quality samples still demand hundreds of refinement…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-04 Hasan Amin , Yuan Gao , Yaser Souri , Subhojit Som , Ming Yin , Rajiv Khanna , Xia Song

We prove bounds on the variance of a function $f$ under the empirical measure of the samples obtained by the Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm, with time complexity depending on local rather than global Markov chain mixing dynamics.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-18 Holden Lee , Matheau Santana-Gijzen

Being the most classical generative model for serial data, state-space models (SSM) are fundamental in AI and statistical machine learning. In SSM, any form of parameter learning or latent state inference typically involves the computation…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-07-04 Alessandro Mastrototaro , Jimmy Olsson

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms were originally designed for estimating intractable conditional expectations within state-space models, but are now routinely used to generate approximate samples in the context of general-purpose…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-11 Jonathan H. Huggins , Daniel M. Roy
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