Related papers: A multifidelity approximate Bayesian computation w…
A common problem in natural sciences is the comparison of competing models in the light of observed data. Bayesian model comparison provides a statistically sound framework for this comparison based on the evidence each model provides for…
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is one of the most popular "likelihood-free" methods. These methods have been applied in a wide range of fields by providing solutions to intractable likelihood problems in which exact Bayesian…
A maximum likelihood methodology for a general class of models is presented, using an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) approach. The typical target of ABC methods are models with intractable likelihoods, and we combine an ABC-MCMC…
Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a widely applicable and popular approach to estimating unknown parameters of mechanistic models. As ABC analyses are computationally expensive, parallelization on high-performance infrastructure is…
Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a popular method for approximate inference in generative models with intractable but easy-to-sample likelihood. It constructs an approximate posterior distribution by finding parameters for which…
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is commonly used for parameter estimation and model comparison for intractable simulator-based models whose likelihood function cannot be evaluated. In this paper we instead investigate the feasibility…
Finite mixture models are used in statistics and other disciplines, but inference for mixture models is challenging due, in part, to the multimodality of the likelihood function and the so-called label switching problem. We propose…
We consider the problem of approximate Bayesian parameter inference in non-linear state-space models with intractable likelihoods. Sequential Monte Carlo with approximate Bayesian computations (SMC-ABC) is one approach to approximate the…
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) has advanced in two decades from a seminal idea to a practically applicable inference tool for simulator-based statistical models, which are becoming increasingly popular in many research domains. The…
This paper deals with the Gaussian process based approximation of a code which can be run at different levels of accuracy. This method, which is a particular case of co-kriging, allows us to improve a surrogate model of a complex computer…
In this paper we show that there is a link between approximate Bayesian methods and prior robustness. We show that what is typically recognized as an approximation to the likelihood, either due to the simulated data as in the Approximate…
Performing exact posterior inference in complex generative models is often difficult or impossible due to an expensive to evaluate or intractable likelihood function. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is an inference framework that…
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a set of techniques for Bayesian inference when the likelihood is intractable but sampling from the model is possible. This work presents a simple yet effective ABC algorithm based on the…
We develop scalable methods for producing conformal Bayesian predictive intervals with finite sample calibration guarantees. Bayesian posterior predictive distributions, $p(y \mid x)$, characterize subjective beliefs on outcomes of…
Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a popular computational method for likelihood-free Bayesian inference. The term "likelihood-free" refers to problems where the likelihood is intractable to compute or estimate directly, but where it…
Estimating probability of failure in aerospace systems is a critical requirement for flight certification and qualification. Failure probability estimation involves resolving tails of probability distribution, and Monte Carlo sampling…
We propose a novel approach to approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) that seeks to cater for possible misspecification of the assumed model. This new approach can be equally applied to rejection-based ABC and to popular regression…
Also known as likelihood-free methods, approximate Bayesian computational (ABC) methods have appeared in the past ten years as the most satisfactory approach to untractable likelihood problems, first in genetics then in a broader spectrum…
Complex simulators have become a ubiquitous tool in many scientific disciplines, providing high-fidelity, implicit probabilistic models of natural and social phenomena. Unfortunately, they typically lack the tractability required for…
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) have become a essential tool for the analysis of complex stochastic models. Earlier, Grelaud et al. (2009) advocated the use of ABC for Bayesian model choice in the specific case of Gibbs random…