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Doubly robust methods hold considerable promise for off-policy evaluation in Markov decision processes (MDPs) under sequential ignorability: They have been shown to converge as $1/\sqrt{T}$ with the horizon $T$, to be statistically…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-30 Mohammad Mehrabi , Stefan Wager

We study identification and estimation of causal effects in settings with panel data. Traditionally researchers follow model-based identification strategies relying on assumptions governing the relation between the potential outcomes and…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-02-18 Dmitry Arkhangelsky , Guido W. Imbens

We consider the problem of estimating quantile treatment effects without assuming strict overlap , i.e., we do not assume that the propensity score is bounded away from zero. More specifically, we consider an inverse probability weighting…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-24 Marco Avella-Medina , Richard Davis , Gennady Samorodnitsky

This paper concerns robust inference on average treatment effects following model selection. In the selection on observables framework, we show how to construct confidence intervals based on a doubly-robust estimator that are robust to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-04-13 Max H. Farrell

Distributionally robust policy learning aims to find a policy that performs well under the worst-case distributional shift, and yet most existing methods for robust policy learning consider the worst-case joint distribution of the covariate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-03 Jingyuan Wang , Zhimei Ren , Ruohan Zhan , Zhengyuan Zhou

This paper addresses the problem of providing robust estimators under a functional logistic regression model. Logistic regression is a popular tool in classification problems with two populations. As in functional linear regression,…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-16 Graciela Boente , Marina Valdora

Unlike parametric regression, machine learning (ML) methods do not generally require precise knowledge of the true data generating mechanisms. As such, numerous authors have advocated for ML methods to estimate causal effects.…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-15 Ashley I Naimi , Alan E Mishler , Edward H Kennedy

In the covariate shift learning scenario, the training and test covariate distributions differ, so that a predictor's average loss over the training and test distributions also differ. In this work, we explore the potential of extreme…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-03-13 Fulton Wang , Cynthia Rudin

Due to label scarcity and covariate shift happening frequently in real-world studies, transfer learning has become an essential technique to train models generalizable to some target populations using existing labeled source data. Most…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-09 Doudou Zhou , Molei Liu , Mengyan Li , Tianxi Cai

Under-coverage and nonresponse problems are jointly present in most socio-economic surveys. The purpose of this paper is to propose a completely design-based estimation strategy that accounts for both problems without resorting to models…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-05-10 Maria Michela Dickson , Giuseppe Espa , Lorenzo Fattorini

Consider estimating the G-formula for the counterfactual mean outcome under a given treatment regime in a longitudinal study. Bang and Robins provided an estimator for this quantity that relies on a sequential regression formulation of this…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-18 Alexander R. Luedtke , Oleg Sofrygin , Mark J. van der Laan , Marco Carone

Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) has become a powerful framework for estimation under uncertainty, offering strong out-of-sample performance and principled regularization. In this paper, we propose a DRO-based method for linear…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-06 Liviu Aolaritei , Soroosh Shafiee , Florian Dörfler

Mendelian randomization (MR) has become a popular approach to study the effect of a modifiable exposure on an outcome by using genetic variants as instrumental variables. A challenge in MR is that each genetic variant explains a relatively…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-13 Ting Ye , Jun Shao , Hyunseung Kang

Assigning importance weights to adversarial data has achieved great success in training adversarially robust networks under limited model capacity. However, existing instance-reweighted adversarial training (AT) methods heavily depend on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-02 Daouda Sow , Sen Lin , Zhangyang Wang , Yingbin Liang

Randomized controlled trials are the gold standard for measuring causal effects. However, they are often not always feasible, and causal treatment effects must be estimated from observational data. Observational studies do not allow robust…

In natural phenomena, data distributions often deviate from normality. One can think of cataclysms as a self-explanatory example: events that occur almost never, and at the same time are many standard deviations away from the common…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-16 Nuno Costa , Nuno Moniz

Plausible identification of conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) may rely on controlling for a large number of variables to account for confounding factors. In these high-dimensional settings, estimation of the CATE requires…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-01-18 Adam Baybutt , Manu Navjeevan

Covariate balance is a conventional key diagnostic for methods used estimating causal effects from observational studies. Recently, there is an emerging interest in directly incorporating covariate balance in the estimation. We study a…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-02-14 Qingyuan Zhao , Daniel Percival

We consider an experiment with at least two stages or batches and $O(N)$ subjects per batch. First, we propose a semiparametric treatment effect estimator that efficiently pools information across the batches, and show it asymptotically…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-28 Harrison H. Li , Art B. Owen

Combining information from multiple samples is often needed in biomedical and economic studies, but the differences between these samples must be appropriately taken into account in the analysis of the combined data. We study estimation for…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-08-14 Heng Shu , Zhiqiang Tan
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