Related papers: When Is Generalized Bayes Bayesian? A Decision-The…
When it is acknowledged that all candidate parameterised statistical models are misspecified relative to the data generating process, the decision maker (DM) must currently concern themselves with inference for the parameter value…
In their seminal 1990 paper, Wasserman and Kadane establish an upper bound for the Bayes' posterior probability of a measurable set $A$, when the prior lies in a class of probability measures $\mathcal{P}$ and the likelihood is precise.…
In the standard Bayesian framework data are assumed to be generated by a distribution parametrized by $\theta$ in a parameter space $\Theta$, over which a prior distribution $\pi$ is given. A Bayesian statistician quantifies the belief that…
Statisticians often face the choice between using probability models or a paradigm defined by minimising a loss function. Both approaches are useful and, if the loss can be re-cast into a proper probability model, there are many tools to…
Contemporary focus on selective inference has renewed interest in the theory of selection models. In this paper, we analyze the asymptotic properties of selection models built on independent and identically distributed observations. We show…
Recently, several researchers have claimed that conclusions obtained from a Bayes factor (or the posterior odds) may contradict those obtained from Bayesian posterior estimation. In this short paper, we wish to point out that no such…
This work considers Bayesian inference under misspecification for complex statistical models comprised of simpler submodels, referred to as modules, that are coupled together. Such ``multi-modular" models often arise when combining…
Bayesian inference in generalized linear models requires a prior on the coefficient vector $\beta$. Practitioners naturally reason about response probabilities at specific covariate values, not about abstract log-odds parameters. We develop…
In this paper we consider a Bayesian framework for making inferences about dynamical systems from ergodic observations. The proposed Bayesian procedure is based on the Gibbs posterior, a decision theoretic generalization of standard…
Bayesian predictive inference propagates parameter uncertainty to quantities of interest through the posterior-predictive distribution. In practice, this is typically performed using a two-stage procedure: first approximating the posterior…
The standard approach to Bayesian inference is based on the assumption that the distribution of the data belongs to the chosen model class. However, even a small violation of this assumption can have a large impact on the outcome of a…
In the popular approach of "Bayesian variable selection" (BVS), one uses prior and posterior distributions to select a subset of candidate variables to enter the model. A completely new direction will be considered here to study BVS with a…
Gaussian empirical Bayes methods usually maintain a precision independence assumption: The unknown parameters of interest are independent from the known standard errors of the estimates. This assumption is often theoretically questionable…
Many modern experiments, such as microarray gene expression and genome-wide association studies, present the problem of estimating a large number of parallel effects. Bayesian inference is a popular approach for analyzing such data by…
Empirical likelihood is a popular nonparametric statistical tool that does not require any distributional assumptions. In this paper, we explore the possibility of conducting variable selection via Bayesian empirical likelihood. We show…
We propose a posterior for Bayesian Likelihood-Free Inference (LFI) based on generalized Bayesian inference. To define the posterior, we use Scoring Rules (SRs), which evaluate probabilistic models given an observation. In LFI, we can…
By providing a framework of accounting for the shared ancestry inherent to all life, phylogenetics is becoming the statistical foundation of biology. The importance of model choice continues to grow as phylogenetic models continue to…
Aleatoric uncertainty captures the inherent randomness of the data, such as measurement noise. In Bayesian regression, we often use a Gaussian observation model, where we control the level of aleatoric uncertainty with a noise variance…
Bayesian methods are a popular choice for statistical inference in small-data regimes due to the regularization effect induced by the prior. In the context of density estimation, the standard nonparametric Bayesian approach is to target the…
Uncovering genuine relationships between a response variable of interest and a large collection of covariates is a fundamental and practically important problem. In the context of Gaussian linear models, both the Bayesian and non-Bayesian…