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Understanding causality in event sequences where outcome labels such as diseases or system failures arise from preceding events like symptoms or error codes is critical. Yet remains an unsolved challenge across domains like healthcare or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-15 Hugo Math , Rainer Lienhart

Understanding causality in event sequences with thousands of sparse event types is critical in domains such as healthcare, cybersecurity, or vehicle diagnostics, yet current methods fail to scale. We present OSCAR, a one-shot causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-14 Hugo Math , Robin Schön , Rainer Lienhart

Temporal causal representation learning methods assume that causal mechanisms switch instantaneously between discrete domains, yet real-world systems often exhibit continuous mechanism transitions. For example, a vehicle's dynamics evolve…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-30 Shicheng Fan , Kun Zhang , Lu Cheng

Causal discovery is a data-driven paradigm for analyzing complex systems, while physics-based models, such as ordinary differential equations (ODEs), provide mechanistic structure for real-world dynamical processes. Integrating these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-21 Jianhong Chen , Naichen Shi , Xubo Yue

A structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) process is a linear causal model for variables that evolve over a discrete set of time points and between which there may be lagged and instantaneous effects. The qualitative causal structure of an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-08-19 Nicolas-Domenic Reiter , Jonas Wahl , Andreas Gerhardus , Jakob Runge

Causal discovery aims to infer causal relationships among variables from observational data, typically represented by a directed acyclic graph (DAG). Most existing methods assume independent and identically distributed observations, an…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-27 Alex Chen , Qing Zhou

Observational causal discovery is only identifiable up to the Markov equivalence class. While interventions can reduce this ambiguity, in practice interventions are often soft with multiple unknown targets. In many realistic scenarios, only…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-05 Mingxuan Zhang , Khushi Desai , Sopho Kevlishvili , Elham Azizi

Causal phenomena associated with rare events occur across a wide range of engineering problems, such as risk-sensitive safety analysis, accident analysis and prevention, and extreme value theory. However, current methods for causal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-07-19 Chih-Yuan Chiu , Kshitij Kulkarni , Shankar Sastry

Causal discovery algorithms aim at untangling complex causal relationships from data. Here, we study causal discovery and inference methods based on staged tree models, which can represent complex and asymmetric causal relationships between…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-02 Manuele Leonelli , Gherardo Varando

Recent large vision-language models have achieved strong performance on short- and medium-length video understanding, yet they remain inadequate for ultra-long or even infinite video reasoning, where models must preserve coherent memory…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-08 Peizheng Yan , Yu Zhao , Liang Xie , Juntong Qi , Mingming Wang , Erwei Yin

Test-time scaling improves the reasoning performance of large language models but often results in token-inefficient overthinking, where models continue reasoning beyond what is necessary for a correct answer. Existing dynamic early-exit…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Jiakun Li , Xingwei He , Kefan Li , Hongzheng Chai , Hongyue Yu , Yuan Yuan

Causal discovery from observational data is a fundamental task in artificial intelligence, with far-reaching implications for decision-making, predictions, and interventions. Despite significant advances, existing methods can be broadly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-06 Jincheng Zhou , Mengbo Wang , Anqi He , Yumeng Zhou , Hessam Olya , Murat Kocaoglu , Bruno Ribeiro

We introduce an approach which allows detecting causal relationships between variables for which the time evolution is available. Causality is assessed by a variational scheme based on the Information Imbalance of distance ranks, a…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-07 Vittorio Del Tatto , Gianfranco Fortunato , Domenica Bueti , Alessandro Laio

Uncovering cause-effect relationships from observational time series is fundamental to understanding complex systems. While many methods infer static causal graphs, real-world systems often exhibit dynamic causality-where relationships…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-06 Tingzhu Bi , Yicheng Pan , Xinrui Jiang , Huize Sun , Meng Ma , Ping Wang

Bayesian causal discovery aims to infer the posterior distribution over causal models from observed data, quantifying epistemic uncertainty and benefiting downstream tasks. However, computational challenges arise due to joint inference over…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-11 Yashas Annadani , Nick Pawlowski , Joel Jennings , Stefan Bauer , Cheng Zhang , Wenbo Gong

Causal discovery, the task of inferring causal structure from data, has the potential to uncover mechanistic insights from biological experiments, especially those involving perturbations. However, causal discovery algorithms over larger…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-01 Menghua Wu , Yujia Bao , Regina Barzilay , Tommi Jaakkola

The ubiquity of dynamic data in domains such as weather, healthcare, and energy underscores a growing need for effective interpretation and retrieval of time-series data. These data are inherently tied to domain-specific contexts, such as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Jialin Chen , Ziyu Zhao , Gaukhar Nurbek , Aosong Feng , Ali Maatouk , Leandros Tassiulas , Yifeng Gao , Rex Ying

In recent years, the widespread adoption of distributed microservice architectures within the industry has significantly increased the demand for enhanced system availability and robustness. Due to the complex service invocation paths and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-23 Ziming Zhao , Zhenwei Wang , Tiehua Zhang , Zhishu Shen , Hai Dong , Zhen Lei , Xingjun Ma , Gaowei Xu , Zhijun Ding , Yun Yang

Causal discovery aims to uncover cause-and-effect relationships encoded in causal graphs by leveraging observational, interventional data, or their combination. The majority of existing causal discovery methods are developed assuming…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-25 Muhammad Qasim Elahi , Lai Wei , Murat Kocaoglu , Mahsa Ghasemi

Variational Auto-Encoder (VAE) has been widely adopted in text generation. Among many variants, recurrent VAE learns token-wise latent variables with each conditioned on the preceding ones, which captures sequential variability better in…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-11-24 Jinyi Hu , Xiaoyuan Yi , Wenhao Li , Maosong Sun , Xing Xie
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