Related papers: Testing the validity of multiple opinion dynamics …

Typically, machine learning models are trained and evaluated without making any distinction between users (e.g, using traditional hold-out and cross-validation). However, this produces inaccurate performance metrics estimates in multi-user…

In traditional voter models, opinion dynamics are driven by interactions between individuals, where an individual adopts the opinion of a randomly chosen neighbor. However, these models often fail to capture the emergence of entirely new…

In some social networks, the opinion forming is based on its own and neighbors' (initial) opinions, whereas the evolution of the individual opinions is also influenced by the individual's past opinions in the real world. Unlike existing…

Opinion dynamics, the evolution of individuals through social interactions, is an important area of research with applications ranging from politics to marketing. Due to its interdisciplinary relevance, studies of opinion dynamics remain…

We build simple computational models of belief dynamics within the framework of discrete-spin statistical physics models, and explore how suitable they are for understanding and predicting real-world belief change on both the individual and…

Agent-based models are versatile tools for studying how societal opinion change, including political polarization and cultural diffusion, emerges from individual behavior. This study expands agents' psychological realism using…

In scientific inference problems, the underlying statistical modeling assumptions have a crucial impact on the end results. There exist, however, only a few automatic means for validating these fundamental modelling assumptions. The…

Opinion dynamics is an important and very active area of research that delves into the complex processes through which individuals form and modify their opinions within a social context. The ability to comprehend and unravel the mechanisms…

Dynamical weather and climate prediction models underpin many studies of the Earth system and hold the promise of being able to make robust projections of future climate change based on physical laws. However, simulations from these models…

Opinion polarization is on the rise, causing concerns for the openness of public debates. Additionally, extreme opinions on different topics often show significant correlations. The dynamics leading to these polarized ideological opinions…

Accurate modeling of opinion dynamics has the potential to help us understand polarization and what makes effective political discourse possible or impossible. Here, we use physics-based methods to model the evolution of political opinions…

Accurately simulating human opinion dynamics is crucial for understanding a variety of societal phenomena, including polarization and the spread of misinformation. However, the agent-based models (ABMs) commonly used for such simulations…

Multi-model ensembles provide a pragmatic approach to the representation of model uncertainty in climate prediction. However, such representations are inherently ad hoc, and, as shown, probability distributions of climate variables based on…

Opinion Dynamics lacks a theoretical basis. In this article, I propose to use a decision-theoretic framework, based on the updating of subjective probabilities, as that basis. We will see we get a basic tool for a better understanding of…

Improving the accuracy of forecast models for physical systems such as the atmosphere is a crucial ongoing effort. Errors in state estimation for these often highly nonlinear systems has been the primary focus of recent research, but as…

The study of opinions $-$ e.g., their formation and change, and their effects on our society $-$ by means of theoretical and numerical models has been one of the main goals of sociophysics until now, but it is one of the defining topics…

To analyze climate change mitigation strategies, economists rely on simplified climate models - climate emulators. We propose a generic and transparent calibration and evaluation strategy for these climate emulators that is based on Coupled…

Competition between varying ideas, people and institutions fuels the dynamics of socio-economic systems. Numerous analyses of the empirical data extracted from different financial markets have established a consistent set of stylized facts…

Polarization, defined as the emergence of sharply divided groups with opposing and often extreme views, is an increasingly prominent feature of modern societies. While many studies analyze this phenomenon in the context of single issues,…

To many statisticians and citizens, the outcome of the most recent U.S. presidential election represents a failure of data-driven methods on the grandest scale. This impression has led to much debate and discussion about how the election…