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Although language model scores are often treated as probabilities, their reliability as probability estimators has mainly been studied through calibration, overlooking other aspects. In particular, it is unclear whether language models…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-01 Eitan Wagner , Yuli Slavutsky , Omri Abend

Accurately gauging the confidence level of Large Language Models' (LLMs) predictions is pivotal for their reliable application. However, LLMs are often uncalibrated inherently and elude conventional calibration techniques due to their…

The authors derive likelihood-based exact inference methods for the multivariate regression model, for singly imputed synthetic data generated via Posterior Predictive Sampling (PPS) and for multiply imputed synthetic data generated via a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-07-26 Ricardo Moura , Martin Klein , Carlos A. Coelho , Bimal Sinha

Hypothesis testing methods that do not rely on exact distribution assumptions have been emerging lately. The method of sign-perturbed sums (SPS) is capable of characterizing confidence regions with exact confidence levels for linear…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-07-03 Sándor Kolumbán , István Vajk , Johan Schoukens

Topic models provide a useful method for dimensionality reduction and exploratory data analysis in large text corpora. Most approaches to topic model inference have been based on a maximum likelihood objective. Efficient algorithms exist…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-12-20 Sanjeev Arora , Rong Ge , Yoni Halpern , David Mimno , Ankur Moitra , David Sontag , Yichen Wu , Michael Zhu

We develop new conformal inference methods for obtaining validity guarantees on the output of large language models (LLMs). Prior work in conformal language modeling identifies a subset of the text that satisfies a high-probability…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-01 John J. Cherian , Isaac Gibbs , Emmanuel J. Candès

Conformal prediction offers a distribution-free framework for constructing prediction sets with coverage guarantees. In practice, multiple valid conformal prediction sets may be available, arising from different models or methodologies.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-26 Mahmoud Hegazy , Liviu Aolaritei , Michael I. Jordan , Aymeric Dieuleveut

Protecting the intellectual property of large language models (LLMs) is a critical challenge due to the proliferation of unauthorized derivative models. We introduce a novel fingerprinting framework that leverages the behavioral patterns…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2026-02-11 Zhenyu Xu , Victor S. Sheng

This article presents a novel, general, and effective simulation-inspired approach, called {\it repro samples method}, to conduct statistical inference. The approach studies the performance of artificial samples, referred to as {\it repro…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-15 Min-ge Xie , Peng Wang

The literature on provable robustness in machine learning has primarily focused on static prediction problems, such as image classification, in which input samples are assumed to be independent and model performance is measured as an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-30 Aounon Kumar , Vinu Sankar Sadasivan , Soheil Feizi

Many methods for automated software test generation, including some that explicitly use machine learning (and some that use ML more broadly conceived) derive new tests from existing tests (often referred to as seeds). Often, the seed tests…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-11-16 Alex Groce , Josie Holmes

This tutorial focuses on efficient methods to predictive monitoring (PM), the problem of detecting at runtime future violations of a given requirement from the current state of a system. While performing model checking at runtime would…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-12-05 Francesca Cairoli , Luca Bortolussi , Nicola Paoletti

The validation of data from sensors has become an important issue in the operation and control of modern industrial plants. One approach is to use knowledge based techniques to detect inconsistencies in measured data. This article presents…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-18 Pablo H. Ibarguengoytia , Luis Enrique Sucar , Sunil Vadera

Probability proportional to size (PPS) sampling schemes with a target sample size aim to produce a sample comprising a specified number $n$ of items while ensuring that each item in the population appears in the sample with a probability…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-14 Brian Hentschel , Peter J. Haas , Yuanyuan Tian

Large language models (LLMs) are a promising venue for natural language understanding and generation tasks. However, current LLMs are far from reliable: they are prone to generate non-factual information and, more crucially, to contradict…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-22 Diego Calanzone , Stefano Teso , Antonio Vergari

Large language models are trained on vast amounts of internet data, prompting concerns and speculation that they have memorized public benchmarks. Going from speculation to proof of contamination is challenging, as the pretraining data used…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-11-27 Yonatan Oren , Nicole Meister , Niladri Chatterji , Faisal Ladhak , Tatsunori B. Hashimoto

Large language models (LLMs) inherently operate over a large generation space, yet conventional usage typically reports the most likely generation (MLG) as a point prediction, which underestimates the model's capability: although the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-03-25 Ye Li , Anqi Hu , Yuanchang Ye , Shiyan Tong , Zhiyuan Wang , Bo Fu

The grammatical knowledge of language models (LMs) is often measured using a benchmark of linguistic minimal pairs, where the LMs are presented with a pair of acceptable and unacceptable sentences and required to judge which is more…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-02-10 Yusuke Ide , Yuto Nishida , Justin Vasselli , Miyu Oba , Yusuke Sakai , Hidetaka Kamigaito , Taro Watanabe

We develop an approach to estimate the probability that a program sampled from a large language model is correct. Given a natural language description of a programming problem, our method samples both candidate programs as well as candidate…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2023-10-11 Darren Key , Wen-Ding Li , Kevin Ellis

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown significant advances in text generation but often lack the reliability needed for autonomous deployment in high-stakes domains like healthcare, law, and finance. Existing approaches rely on external…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-11-12 Ninad Naik