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We study the impact of exchange rate volatility on cost efficiency and market structure in a cross-section of banks that have non-trivial exposures to foreign currency (FX) operations. We use unique data on quarterly revaluations of FX…
We show that capital flow (CF) volatility exerts an adverse effect on exchange rate (FX) volatility, regardless of whether capital controls have been put in place. However, this effect can be significantly moderated by certain macroeconomic…
Gold and currency markets form a unique pair with specific interactions and dynamics. We focus on the efficiency ranking of gold markets with respect to the currency of purchase. By utilizing the Efficiency Index (EI) based on fractal…
In February 2018, the VIX index has seen its largest ever increase and has lead to significant losses for some major volatility related products. Despite many efforts, the precise underlying reasons are yet to be discovered. We study the…
The intraday pattern, long memory, and multifractal nature of the intertrade durations, which are defined as the waiting times between two consecutive transactions, are investigated based upon the limit order book data and order flows of 23…
Stock price prediction is of significant importance in quantitative investment. Existing approaches encounter two primary issues: First, they often overlook the crucial role of capturing short-term stock fluctuations for predicting…
In this article, we present a discrete time modeling framework, in which the shape and dynamics of a Limit Order Book (LOB) arise endogenously from an equilibrium between multiple market participants (agents). We use the proposed modeling…
The market efficiency hypothesis has been proposed to explain the behavior of time series of stock markets. The Black-Scholes model (B-S) for example, is based on the assumption that markets are efficient. As a consequence, it is…
To battle with economic challenges during the COVID-19 pandemic, the US government implemented various measures to mitigate economic loss. From issuance of stimulus checks to reopening businesses, consumers had to constantly alter their…
This paper investigates the time-varying risk-premium relation of the Chinese stock markets within the framework of cross-sectional momentum and contrarian effects by adopting the Capital Asset Pricing Model and the French-Fama three factor…
We analyse the temporal changes in the cross correlations of returns on the New York Stock Exchange. We show that lead-lag relationships between daily returns of stocks vanished in less than twenty years. We have found that even for high…
This paper develops a new toolbox for multiple structural break detection in panel data models with interactive effects. The toolbox includes tests for the presence of structural breaks, a break date estimator, and a break date confidence…
We explain in a nontechnical fashion why dollar-neutral quant trading strategies, such as equities Statistical Arbitrage, suffered substantial losses (drawdowns) during the COVID-19 market selloff. We discuss: (i) why these strategies work…
We identify a robust structural signature of stock markets during exogenous shock events by analyzing collective return dynamics across G5 countries. Using Random Matrix Theory, we introduce the complexity gap, defined as the difference…
The deep financial turmoil in China caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated fiscal shocks and soaring public debt levels, which raises concerns about the stability and sustainability of China's public debt growth in the future. This…
This paper introduces a high frequency trade execution model to evaluate the economic impact of supervised machine learners. Extending the concept of a confusion matrix, we present a 'trade information matrix' to attribute the expected…
The paper analyzes the cryptocurrency ecosystem at both the aggregate and individual levels to understand the factors that impact future volatility. The study uses high-frequency panel data from 2020 to 2022 to examine the relationship…
The price of electricity is far more volatile than that of other commodities normally noted for extreme volatility. The possibility of extreme price movements increases the risk of trading in electricity markets. However, underlying the…
In recent years a new type of tradable assets appeared, generically known as cryptocurrencies. Among them, the most widespread is Bitcoin. Given its novelty, this paper investigates some statistical properties of the Bitcoin market. This…
The COVID-19 pandemic significantly disrupted household consumption, savings, and income across Europe, particularly affecting countries like Hungary, Slovenia, and the Czech Republic. This study investigates the effectiveness of fiscal…