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Gaussian graphical models are widely used to infer dependence structures. Bayesian methods are appealing to quantify uncertainty associated with structural learning, i.e., the plausibility of conditional independence statements given the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-05 Deborah Sulem , Jack Jewson , David Rossell

In this work we explore a straightforward variational Bayes scheme for Recurrent Neural Networks. Firstly, we show that a simple adaptation of truncated backpropagation through time can yield good quality uncertainty estimates and superior…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-13 Meire Fortunato , Charles Blundell , Oriol Vinyals

One of the goals of current particle physics research is to obtain evidence for new physics, that is, physics beyond the Standard Model (BSM), at accelerators such as the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at CERN. The searches for new physics are…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2022-07-12 Braden Kronheim , Michelle Kuchera , Harrison Prosper , Alexander Karbo

Current approaches in approximate inference for Bayesian neural networks minimise the Kullback-Leibler divergence to approximate the true posterior over the weights. However, this approximation is without knowledge of the final application,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-05-11 Adam D. Cobb , Stephen J. Roberts , Yarin Gal

This paper presents an empirical study regarding training probabilistic neural networks using training objectives derived from PAC-Bayes bounds. In the context of probabilistic neural networks, the output of training is a probability…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-23 María Pérez-Ortiz , Omar Rivasplata , John Shawe-Taylor , Csaba Szepesvári

In this work, we study scaling limits of shallow Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) via their connection to Gaussian processes (GPs), with an emphasis on statistical modeling, identifiability, and scalable inference. We first establish a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-27 Gracielle Antunes de Araújo , Flávio B. Gonçalves

Large neural networks trained on large datasets have become the dominant paradigm in machine learning. These systems rely on maximum likelihood point estimates of their parameters, precluding them from expressing model uncertainty. This may…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-01 Javier Antoran

Deep neural networks (DNNs) generalize remarkably well without explicit regularization even in the strongly over-parametrized regime where classical learning theory would instead predict that they would severely overfit. While many…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-04-23 Guillermo Valle-Pérez , Chico Q. Camargo , Ard A. Louis

We study Bayesian hypernetworks: a framework for approximate Bayesian inference in neural networks. A Bayesian hypernetwork $\h$ is a neural network which learns to transform a simple noise distribution, $p(\vec\epsilon) = \N(\vec 0,\mat…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-04-26 David Krueger , Chin-Wei Huang , Riashat Islam , Ryan Turner , Alexandre Lacoste , Aaron Courville

Weight-sharing quantization has emerged as a technique to reduce energy expenditure during inference in large neural networks by constraining their weights to a limited set of values. However, existing methods for weight-sharing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-05 Christopher Subia-Waud , Srinandan Dasmahapatra

We show how to treat systematic uncertainties using Bayesian deep networks for regression. First, we analyze how these networks separately trace statistical and systematic uncertainties on the momenta of boosted top quarks forming fat jets.…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2020-12-23 Gregor Kasieczka , Michel Luchmann , Florian Otterpohl , Tilman Plehn

The point estimates of ReLU classification networks---arguably the most widely used neural network architecture---have been shown to yield arbitrarily high confidence far away from the training data. This architecture, in conjunction with a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-20 Agustinus Kristiadi , Matthias Hein , Philipp Hennig

Deep neural networks (NNs) are powerful black box predictors that have recently achieved impressive performance on a wide spectrum of tasks. Quantifying predictive uncertainty in NNs is a challenging and yet unsolved problem. Bayesian NNs,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-11-07 Balaji Lakshminarayanan , Alexander Pritzel , Charles Blundell

We study wide Bayesian neural networks focusing on the rare but statistically dominant fluctuations that govern posterior concentration, beyond Gaussian-process limits. Large-deviation theory provides explicit variational objectives-rate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-27 Katerina Papagiannouli , Dario Trevisan , Giuseppe Pio Zitto

Tensor Network (TN) Kernel Machines speed up model learning by representing parameters as low-rank TNs, reducing computation and memory use. However, most TN-based Kernel methods are deterministic and ignore parameter uncertainty. Further,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-16 Afra Kilic , Kim Batselier

While Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) hold the promise of being flexible, well-calibrated statistical models, inference often requires approximations whose consequences are poorly understood. We study the quality of common variational…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-26 Andrew Y. K. Foong , David R. Burt , Yingzhen Li , Richard E. Turner

In this paper, we derive generalization bounds for the two primary classes of graph neural networks (GNNs), namely graph convolutional networks (GCNs) and message passing GNNs (MPGNNs), via a PAC-Bayesian approach. Our result reveals that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-15 Renjie Liao , Raquel Urtasun , Richard Zemel

We present new Bayesian Last Layer neural network models in the setting of multivariate regression under heteroscedastic noise, and propose EM algorithms for parameter learning. Bayesian modeling of a neural network's final layer has the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-02 Han Wang , Eiji Kawasaki , Guillaume Damblin , Geoffrey Daniel

Standard evaluations of Bayesian deep learning methods assume that metric estimates are reliable, but we show this assumption fails under data scarcity. Method rankings are not only unreliable at small $n$, but also dataset-dependent in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-28 Qishi Zhan , Minxuan Hu , Guansu Wang , Jiaxin Liu , Liang He

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) provide a probabilistic interpretation for deep learning models by imposing a prior distribution over model parameters and inferring a posterior distribution based on observed data. The model sampled from the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-15 Van-Anh Nguyen , Tung-Long Vuong , Hoang Phan , Thanh-Toan Do , Dinh Phung , Trung Le
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