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Machine Learning explainability techniques have been proposed as a means of `explaining' or interrogating a model in order to understand why a particular decision or prediction has been made. Such an ability is especially important at a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-02-28 Matthew J. Vowels

Predictive models are often introduced to decision-making tasks under the rationale that they improve performance over an existing decision-making policy. However, it is challenging to compare predictive performance against an existing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-13 Luke Guerdan , Amanda Coston , Kenneth Holstein , Zhiwei Steven Wu

Given the stated preferences of several people over a number of proposals regarding public policy initiatives, some of those proposals might be judged to be more ``divisive'' than others. When designing online participatory platforms to…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2026-01-01 Ulle Endriss

A representative researcher has repeated opportunities for empirical research. To process findings, she must impose an "identifying assumption." She conducts research when the assumption is sufficiently plausible (taking into account both…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-01-17 Andrew Ellis , Ran Spiegler

We revisit empirical Bayes discrimination detection, focusing on uncertainty arising from both partial identification and sampling variability. While prior work has mostly focused on partial identification, we find that some empirical…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-08-19 Jiaying Gu , Nikolaos Ignatiadis , Azeem M. Shaikh

In this paper the theory of semi-bounded rationality is proposed as an extension of the theory of bounded rationality. In particular, it is proposed that a decision making process involves two components and these are the correlation…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-05-28 Tshilidzi Marwala

AI systems are often used to make or contribute to important decisions in a growing range of applications, including criminal justice, hiring, and medicine. Since these decisions impact human lives, it is important that the AI systems act…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-03-16 Duncan C McElfresh , Lok Chan , Kenzie Doyle , Walter Sinnott-Armstrong , Vincent Conitzer , Jana Schaich Borg , John P Dickerson

This paper explores the options available to the anti-realist to defend a Quinean empirical under-determination thesis using examples of dualities. I first explicate a version of the empirical under-determination thesis that can be brought…

History and Philosophy of Physics · Physics 2021-01-05 Sebastian De Haro

Decisions are often based on imprecise, uncertain or vague information. Likewise, the consequences of an action are often equally unpredictable, thus putting the decision maker into a twofold jeopardy. Assuming that the effects of an action…

General Economics · Economics 2022-05-03 Stefan Rass , Sandra König , Stefan Schauer

Although many investigators affirm a desire to build reasoning systems that behave consistently with the axiomatic basis defined by probability theory and utility theory, limited resources for engineering and computation can make a complete…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-11 Eric J. Horvitz

New text as data techniques offer a great promise: the ability to inductively discover measures that are useful for testing social science theories of interest from large collections of text. We introduce a conceptual framework for making…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-02-08 Naoki Egami , Christian J. Fong , Justin Grimmer , Margaret E. Roberts , Brandon M. Stewart

The present communication addresses a set of observations, obeying both deterministic as well as statistical formal requirements, and serving to operate within the framework of the dynamical systems theory, with a certain emphasis placed on…

Physics and Society · Physics 2017-06-30 Adam Gadomski , Marcel Ausloos , Tahlia Casey

Causal models communicate our assumptions about causes and effects in real-world phe- nomena. Often the interest lies in the identification of the effect of an action which means deriving an expression from the observed probability…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-20 Santtu Tikka , Juha Karvanen

In this paper the theory of flexibly-bounded rationality which is an extension to the theory of bounded rationality is revisited. Rational decision making involves using information which is almost always imperfect and incomplete together…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-06-11 Tshilidzi Marwala

Mathematical programming formulations of influence diagrams can bridge the gap between representing and solving decision problems. However, they suffer from both modeling and computational limitations. Aiming to address modeling…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-06-19 Olli Herrala , Tommi Ekholm , Fabricio Oliveira

It is often very challenging to manually design reward functions for complex, real-world tasks. To solve this, one can instead use reward learning to infer a reward function from data. However, there are often multiple reward functions that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-08 Joar Skalse , Matthew Farrugia-Roberts , Stuart Russell , Alessandro Abate , Adam Gleave

In causal estimation problems, the parameter of interest is often only partially identified, implying that the parameter cannot be recovered exactly, even with infinite data. Here, we study Bayesian inference for partially identified…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-26 Jiajing Zheng , Alexander D'Amour , Alexander Franks

Many important quantities of interest are only partially identified from observable data: the data can limit them to a set of plausible values, but not uniquely determine them. This paper develops a unified framework for covariate-assisted…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-15 Eli Ben-Michael

Theoretically as well as experimentally it is investigated how people represent their knowledge in order to make decisions or to share their knowledge with others. Experiment 1 probes into the ways how people 6ather information about the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-15 Alf C. Zimmer

Assessing the systemic effects of uncertainty that arises from agents' partial observation of the true states of the world is critical for understanding a wide range of scenarios. Yet, previous modeling work on agent learning and…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2022-04-15 Wolfram Barfuss , Richard P. Mann