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Explainability and uncertainty quantification are key to trustable artificial intelligence. However, the reasoning behind uncertainty estimates is generally left unexplained. Identifying the drivers of uncertainty complements explanations…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-13 Pascal Iversen , Simon Witzke , Katharina Baum , Bernhard Y. Renard

The increasing adoption of machine learning tools has led to calls for accountability via model interpretability. But what does it mean for a machine learning model to be interpretable by humans, and how can this be assessed? We focus on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-08-06 Dylan Slack , Sorelle A. Friedler , Carlos Scheidegger , Chitradeep Dutta Roy

This work addresses the challenge of providing consistent explanations for predictive models in the presence of model indeterminacy, which arises due to the existence of multiple (nearly) equally well-performing models for a given dataset…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-14 Dan Ley , Leonard Tang , Matthew Nazari , Hongjin Lin , Suraj Srinivas , Himabindu Lakkaraju

As neural networks become more popular, the need for accompanying uncertainty estimates increases. There are currently two main approaches to test the quality of these estimates. Most methods output a density. They can be compared by…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-05 Laurens Sluijterman , Eric Cator , Tom Heskes

Interpretable classification models are built with the purpose of providing a comprehensible description of the decision logic to an external oversight agent. When considered in isolation, a decision tree, a set of classification rules, or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-03-18 Riccardo Guidotti , Salvatore Ruggieri

Increasingly high-stakes decisions are made using neural networks in order to make predictions. Specifically, meteorologists and hedge funds apply these techniques to time series data. When it comes to prediction, there are certain…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-14 Levente Foldesi , Matias Valdenegro-Toro

Electricity forecasting has been a recurring research topic, as it is key to finding the right balance between production and consumption. While most papers are focused on the national or regional scale, few are interested in the household…

Automated decision making is used routinely throughout our everyday life. Recommender systems decide which jobs, movies, or other user profiles might be interesting to us. Spell checkers help us to make good use of language. Fraud detection…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-15 Alexander Jung , Pedro H. J. Nardelli

Interpretability and explainability have gained more and more attention in the field of machine learning as they are crucial when it comes to high-stakes decisions and troubleshooting. Since both provide information about predictors and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-26 Benjamin Leblanc , Pascal Germain

Uncertainty in machine learning refers to the degree of confidence or lack thereof in a model's predictions. While uncertainty quantification methods exist, explanations of uncertainty, especially in high-dimensional settings, remain an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-30 Isaac Roberts , Alexander Schulz , Sarah Schroeder , Fabian Hinder , Barbara Hammer

Prediction of a machine's Remaining Useful Life (RUL) is one of the key tasks in predictive maintenance. The task is treated as a regression problem where Machine Learning (ML) algorithms are used to predict the RUL of machine components.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-03 Talhat Khan , Kashif Ahmad , Jebran Khan , Imran Khan , Nasir Ahmad

Post-hoc explanation methods are widely used to interpret black-box predictions, but their generation is often computationally expensive and their reliability is not guaranteed. We propose epistemic uncertainty as a low-cost proxy for…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-01 Georgii Mikriukov , Grégoire Montavon , Marina M. -C. Höhne

Decisions in organizations are about evaluating alternatives and choosing the one that would best serve organizational goals. To the extent that the evaluation of alternatives could be formulated as a predictive task with appropriate…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2022-06-30 Charles Wan , Rodrigo Belo , Leid Zejnilović

Interpretability, trustworthiness, and usability are key considerations in high-stake security applications, especially when utilizing deep learning models. While these models are known for their high accuracy, they behave as black boxes in…

Explaining the prediction results of software defect prediction models is a challenging while practical task, which can provide useful information for developers to understand and fix the predicted bugs. To address this issue, recently,…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2021-11-23 Jiho Shin , Reem Aleithan , Jaechang Nam , Junjie Wang , Song Wang

Although deep models achieve high predictive performance, it is difficult for humans to understand the predictions they made. Explainability is important for real-world applications to justify their reliability. Many example-based…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-12-08 Tomoharu Iwata , Yuya Yoshikawa

ML models have errors when used for predictions. The errors are unknown but can be quantified by model uncertainty. When multiple ML models are trained using the same training points, their model uncertainties may be statistically…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-23 Xiaoping Du

Deep Learning is a consolidated, state-of-the-art Machine Learning tool to fit a function when provided with large data sets of examples. However, in regression tasks, the straightforward application of Deep Learning models provides a point…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-07-25 Axel Brando , Jose A. Rodríguez-Serrano , Mauricio Ciprian , Roberto Maestre , Jordi Vitrià

As machine learning systems are increasingly used in high-stakes domains, there is a growing emphasis placed on making them interpretable to improve trust in these systems. In response, a range of interpretable machine learning (IML)…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-22 Luqin Gan , Tarek M. Zikry , Genevera I. Allen

Predictions and forecasts of machine learning models should take the form of probability distributions, aiming to increase the quantity of information communicated to end users. Although applications of probabilistic prediction and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-19 Hristos Tyralis , Georgia Papacharalampous