English
Related papers

Related papers: PredictionMarketBench: A SWE-bench-Style Framework…

200 papers

We present a new model for prediction markets, in which we use risk measures to model agents and introduce a market maker to describe the trading process. This specific choice on modelling tools brings us mathematical convenience. The…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2014-03-05 Jinli Hu , Amos Storkey

The ability of large language models (LLMs) to manage and acquire economic resources remains unclear. In this paper, we introduce \textbf{Market-Bench}, a comprehensive benchmark that evaluates the capabilities of LLMs in…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Yushuo Zheng , Huiyu Duan , Zicheng Zhang , Yucheng Zhu , Xiongkuo Min , Guangtao Zhai

Automating real-world software engineering tasks remains challenging for large language model (LLM)-based agents due to the need for long-horizon reasoning over large, evolving codebases and making consistent decisions across interdependent…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2026-04-14 Mahir Labib Dihan , Md Ashrafur Rahman Khan

LLM-based agents have shown promising capabilities in a growing range of software engineering (SWE) tasks. However, advancing this field faces two critical challenges. First, high-quality training data is scarce, especially data that…

Although both data availability and the demand for accurate forecasts are increasing, collaboration between stakeholders is often constrained by data ownership and competitive interests. In contrast to recent proposals within cooperative…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-14 Michael Vitali , Pierre Pinson

Language models are saturating benchmarks for procedural tasks with narrow objectives. But they are increasingly being deployed in long-horizon, non-stationary environments with open-ended goals. In this paper we introduce KellyBench, an…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-01 Thomas Grady , Kip Parker , Iliyan Zarov , Henry Course , Chengxi Taylor , Ross Taylor

Quantitative backtesting is essential for evaluating trading strategies but remains hampered by high technical barriers and limited scalability. While Large Language Models (LLMs) offer a transformative path to automate this complex,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Zhensheng Wang , Wenmian Yang , Qingtai Wu , Lequan Ma , Yiquan Zhang , Weijia Jia

Large language models have demonstrated strong performance on general-purpose programming tasks, yet their ability to generate executable algorithmic trading strategies remains underexplored. Unlike standard code benchmarks,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-17 Alexey Khoroshilov , Alexey Chernysh , Orkhan Ekhtibarov , Nini Kamkia , Dmitry Zmitrovich

This paper presents PolySwarm, a novel multi-agent large language model (LLM) framework designed for real-time prediction market trading and latency arbitrage on decentralized platforms such as Polymarket. PolySwarm deploys a swarm of 50…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-07 Rajat M. Barot , Arjun S. Borkhatariya

Although LLM-based agents have attracted significant attention in domains such as software engineering and machine learning research, their role in advancing combinatorial optimization (CO) remains relatively underexplored. This gap…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-08-25 Weiwei Sun , Shengyu Feng , Shanda Li , Yiming Yang

Rigorous security-focused evaluation of large language model (LLM) agents is imperative for establishing trust in their safe deployment throughout the software development lifecycle. However, existing benchmarks largely rely on synthetic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-23 Hwiwon Lee , Ziqi Zhang , Hanxiao Lu , Lingming Zhang

Prediction markets mobilize financial incentives to forecast binary event outcomes through the aggregation of dispersed beliefs and heterogeneous information. Their growing popularity and demonstrated predictive accuracy in political…

General Economics · Economics 2026-01-29 Bridget Smart , Ebba Mark , Anne Bastian , Josefina Waugh

LLM agents are promising tools for empirical discovery, but their flexibility can also turn discovery into uncontrolled search. We study how to use agents under a reproducible protocol through cryptocurrency factor discovery. Our framework…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2026-04-30 Yikuan Huang , Zheqi Fan , Kaiqi Hu , Yifan Ye

Recent deployments of large language models (LLMs) as autonomous trading agents raise questions about whether financial decision-making competence generalizes beyond specific market patterns and how it should be trained and evaluated in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Yuchen Pan , Soung Chang Liew

It is unclear whether strong forecasting performance reflects genuine temporal understanding or the ability to reason under contextual and event-driven conditions. We introduce TemporalBench, a multi-domain benchmark designed to evaluate…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-02-17 Muyan Weng , Defu Cao , Wei Yang , Yashaswi Sharma , Yan Liu

We introduce TFRBench, the first benchmark designed to evaluate the reasoning capabilities of forecasting systems. Traditionally, time-series forecasting has been evaluated solely on numerical accuracy, treating foundation models as ``black…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-08 Md Atik Ahamed , Mihir Parmar , Palash Goyal , Yiwen Song , Long T. Le , Qiang Cheng , Chun-Liang Li , Hamid Palangi , Jinsung Yoon , Tomas Pfister

Large language model (LLM) agents need to perform multi-turn interactions in real-world tasks. However, existing multi-turn RL algorithms for optimizing LLM agents fail to perform effective credit assignment over multiple turns while…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-20 Yifei Zhou , Song Jiang , Yuandong Tian , Jason Weston , Sergey Levine , Sainbayar Sukhbaatar , Xian Li

This paper presents a Multi Agent Bitcoin Trading system that utilizes Large Language Models (LLMs) for alpha generation and portfolio management in the cryptocurrencies market. Unlike equities, cryptocurrencies exhibit extreme volatility…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-11-17 Aadi Singhi

We introduce a comprehensive framework for modeling single cell transcriptomic responses to perturbations, aimed at standardizing benchmarking in this rapidly evolving field. Our approach includes a modular and user-friendly model…

We present StockSim, an open-source simulation platform for systematic evaluation of large language models (LLMs) in realistic financial decision-making scenarios. Unlike previous toolkits that offer limited scope, StockSim delivers a…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2025-07-15 Charidimos Papadakis , Giorgos Filandrianos , Angeliki Dimitriou , Maria Lymperaiou , Konstantinos Thomas , Giorgos Stamou