Related papers: TCBench: A Benchmark for Tropical Cyclone Track an…
Tropical cyclones (TCs) pose severe threats to life, infrastructure, and economies in tropical and subtropical regions, underscoring the critical need for accurate and timely forecasts of both track and intensity. Recent advances in…
Accurate tropical cyclones (TCs) tracking represents a critical challenge in the context of weather and climate science. Traditional tracking schemes mainly rely on subjective thresholds, which may introduce biases in their skills on the…
Anthropogenic influences have been linked to tropical cyclone (TC) poleward migration, TC extreme precipitation, and an increased proportion of major hurricanes [1, 2, 3, 4]. Understanding past TC trends and variability is critical for…
Global medium-range weather forecasts suffer occasional failures, often linked to tropical cyclones (TCs). We investigate TC influences on extratropical predictability by comparing forecasts from a physics-based model (ECMWF-IFS) and an…
Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasts are ultimately issued by human forecasters. The human in-the-loop pipeline requires that any forecasting guidance must be easily digestible by TC experts if it is to be adopted at operational…
Accurate tropical cyclone (TC) track prediction is crucial for mitigating the catastrophic impacts of TCs on human life and the environment. Despite decades of research on tropical cyclone (TC) track prediction, large errors known as track…
Accurate forecasting of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity - particularly during periods of rapid intensification and rapid weakening - remains a challenge for operational meteorology, with high-stakes implications for disaster preparedness…
Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasts are issued by human forecasters who evaluate spatio-temporal observations (e.g., satellite imagery) and model output (e.g., numerical weather prediction, statistical models) to produce forecasts…
The tropical cyclone formation process is one of the most complex natural phenomena which is governed by various atmospheric, oceanographic, and geographic factors that varies with time and space. Despite several years of research,…
Rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) poses a great challenge due to their highly nonlinear dynamics and inherent uncertainties. Conventional statistical dynamics and artificial intelligence prediction models typically rely…
In just the past few years multiple data-driven Artificial Intelligence Weather Prediction (AIWP) models have been developed, with new versions appearing almost monthly. Given this rapid development, the applicability of these models to…
The forecast of tropical cyclone trajectories is crucial for the protection of people and property. Although forecast dynamical models can provide high-precision short-term forecasts, they are computationally demanding, and current…
Accurate evaluation of weather forecasting models is critical for their reliable deployment in real-world applications. However, existing benchmarks predominantly rely on reanalysis products such as ERA5, which are generated through delayed…
Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models that integrate coupled physical equations forward in time are the traditional tools for simulating atmospheric processes and forecasting weather. With recent advancements in deep learning, AI-based…
Analyzing big geophysical observational data collected by multiple advanced sensors on various satellite platforms promotes our understanding of the geophysical system. For instance, convolutional neural networks (CNN) have achieved great…
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are highly destructive and inherently uncertain weather systems. Ensemble forecasting helps quantify these uncertainties, yet traditional systems are constrained by high computational costs and limited capability to…
Deep learning-based tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting methods have demonstrated significant potential and application advantages, as they feature much lower computational cost and faster operation speed than numerical weather prediction…
Rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones often causes major destruction to human civilization due to short response time. It is an important yet challenging task to accurately predict this kind of extreme weather event in advance.…
Given the destructive impacts of tropical cyclones, it is critical to have a reliable system for cyclone intensity detection. Various techniques are available for this purpose, each with differing levels of accuracy. In this paper, we…
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the most destructive weather systems. Realistically and efficiently detecting and tracking TCs are critical for assessing their impacts and risks. Recently, a multilevel robustness framework has been…