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The field of algorithms with predictions incorporates machine learning advice in the design of online algorithms to improve real-world performance. A central consideration is the extent to which predictions can be trusted -- while existing…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-26 Judy Hanwen Shen , Ellen Vitercik , Anders Wikum

We advocate the use of conformal prediction (CP) to enhance rule-based multi-label classification (MLC). In particular, we highlight the mutual benefit of CP and rule learning: Rules have the ability to provide natural (non-)conformity…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-09 Eyke Hüllermeier , Johannes Fürnkranz , Eneldo Loza Mencia

Accurate uncertainty quantification is critical for reliable predictive modeling. Existing methods typically address either aleatoric uncertainty due to measurement noise or epistemic uncertainty resulting from limited data, but not both in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-04 Ilia Azizi , Juraj Bodik , Jakob Heiss , Bin Yu

There are relatively few works dealing with conformal prediction for multi-task learning issues, and this is particularly true for multi-target regression. This paper focuses on the problem of providing valid (i.e., frequency calibrated)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-29 Soundouss Messoudi , Sébastien Destercke , Sylvain Rousseau

Neural networks have proven successful at learning from complex data distributions by acting as universal function approximators. However, they are often overconfident in their predictions, which leads to inaccurate and miscalibrated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-23 Jeffrey Willette , Juho Lee , Sung Ju Hwang

Current alignment pipelines presume a single, universal notion of desirable behavior. However, human preferences often diverge across users, contexts, and cultures. As a result, disagreement collapses into the majority signal and minority…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-10 Daniel Halpern , Evi Micha , Ariel D. Procaccia , Itai Shapira

Reliable uncertainty quantification is essential for deploying machine learning systems in high-stakes domains. Conformal prediction provides distribution-free coverage guarantees but often produces overly large prediction sets, limiting…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-28 Yunpeng Xu , Wenge Guo , Zhi Wei

Background With microarray technology becoming mature and popular, the selection and use of a small number of relevant genes for accurate classification of samples is a hot topic in the circles of biostatistics and bioinformatics. However,…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-03-05 Suyan Tian , Mayte Suárez-Fariñas

A solution to control for nonresponse bias consists of multiplying the design weights of respondents by the inverse of estimated response probabilities to compensate for the nonrespondents. Maximum likelihood and calibration are two…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-27 Caren Hasler

Through the lense of multilevel model (MLM) specification and regularization, this is a connect-the-dots introductory summary of Small Area Estimation, e.g. small group prediction informed by a complex sampling design. While a comprehensive…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-23 Michael Tzen

Confidence calibration -- the problem of predicting probability estimates representative of the true correctness likelihood -- is important for classification models in many applications. We discover that modern neural networks, unlike…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-08-04 Chuan Guo , Geoff Pleiss , Yu Sun , Kilian Q. Weinberger

The consideration of predictive uncertainty in medical imaging with deep learning is of utmost importance. We apply estimation of both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty by variational Bayesian inference with Monte Carlo dropout to…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-04-27 Max-Heinrich Laves , Sontje Ihler , Jacob F. Fast , Lüder A. Kahrs , Tobias Ortmaier

While the accuracy of modern deep learning models has significantly improved in recent years, the ability of these models to generate uncertainty estimates has not progressed to the same degree. Uncertainty methods are designed to provide…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-17 Adam M. Oberman , Chris Finlay , Alexander Iannantuono , Tiago Salvador

We study the problem of semantic segmentation calibration. Lots of solutions have been proposed to approach model miscalibration of confidence in image classification. However, to date, confidence calibration research on semantic…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-03-28 Dongdong Wang , Boqing Gong , Liqiang Wang

Modern neural networks have proven to be powerful function approximators, providing state-of-the-art performance in a multitude of applications. They however fall short in their ability to quantify confidence in their predictions - this is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-29 Alex J. Chan , Ahmed M. Alaa , Zhaozhi Qian , Mihaela van der Schaar

We propose a generic framework to calibrate accuracy and confidence of a prediction in deep neural networks through stochastic inferences. We interpret stochastic regularization using a Bayesian model, and analyze the relation between…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-04-25 Seonguk Seo , Paul Hongsuck Seo , Bohyung Han

Uncertainty quantification is essential for the reliable deployment of machine learning models to high-stakes application domains. Uncertainty quantification is all the more challenging when training distribution and test distribution are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-07 Yaodong Yu , Stephen Bates , Yi Ma , Michael I. Jordan

Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is the workhorse tool for dimensionality reduction in this era of big data. While often overlooked, the purpose of PCA is not only to reduce data dimensionality, but also to yield features that are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-30 Arpita Gang , Waheed U. Bajwa

Prior-weighted logistic regression has become a standard tool for calibration in speaker recognition. Logistic regression is the optimization of the expected value of the logarithmic scoring rule. We generalize this via a parametric family…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-07-31 Niko Brümmer , George Doddington

While matrix variate regression models have been studied in many existing works, classical statistical and computational methods for the analysis of the regression coefficient estimation are highly affected by high dimensional and noisy…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-05-17 Hsin-Hsiung Huang , Feng Yu , Xing Fan , Teng Zhang