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Once a gravitational wave signal is detected, the measurement of its source parameters is important to achieve various scientific goals. This is done through Bayesian inference, where the analysis cost increases with the model complexity…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2023-08-29 Harsh Narola , Justin Janquart , Quirijn Meijer , K. Haris , Chris Van Den Broeck

This is an introduction to Bayesian inference with a focus on hierarchical models and hyper-parameters. We write primarily for an audience of Bayesian novices, but we hope to provide useful insights for seasoned veterans as well. Examples…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2025-05-26 Eric Thrane , Colm Talbot

Fast, highly accurate, and reliable inference of the sky origin of gravitational waves would enable real-time multi-messenger astronomy. Current Bayesian inference methodologies, although highly accurate and reliable, are slow. Deep…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2022-08-17 Alex Kolmus , Grégory Baltus , Justin Janquart , Twan van Laarhoven , Sarah Caudill , Tom Heskes

Parameter estimation of gravitational wave signals is computationally intensive and typically requires millions of likelihood evaluations to construct posterior probability distributions. This computational cost increases significantly in…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2026-01-19 Neha Sharma , Aditya Vijaykumar , Prayush Kumar

The direct detection of gravitational waves (GWs) by LIGO has strikingly confirmed general relativity (GR), but testing GR via GWs requires estimating parameterized post-Einsteinian (ppE) deviation parameters in waveform models. Traditional…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2026-02-03 Yong-Xin Zhang , Tian-Yang Sun , Chun-Yu Xiong , Song-Tao Liu , Yu-Xin Wang , Shang-Jie Jin , Jing-Fei Zhang , Xin Zhang

Using simple, intuitive arguments, we discuss the expected accuracy with which astrophysical parameters can be extracted from an observed gravitational wave signal. The observation of a chirp like signal in the data allows for measurement…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2023-09-18 Stephen Fairhurst , Charlie Hoy , Rhys Green , Cameron Mills , Samantha A. Usman

Approximations are commonly employed in realistic applications of scientific Bayesian inference, often due to convenience if not necessity. In the field of gravitational-wave (GW) data analysis, fast-to-evaluate but approximate waveform…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2024-04-03 Ruiting Mao , Jeong Eun Lee , Ollie Burke , Alvin J. K. Chua , Matthew C. Edwards , Renate Meyer

The LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA catalog has been analyzed with an abundance of different population models due to theoretical uncertainty in the formation of gravitational-wave sources. To expedite model exploration, we introduce an efficient and…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2025-06-30 Matthew Mould , Noah E. Wolfe , Salvatore Vitale

Gravitational waves (GW) emitted by binary systems allow us to perform precision tests of general relativity in the strong field regime. Ringdown signals allow for probing black hole mass and spin with high precision in GW astronomy. With…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2026-03-13 Song-Tao Liu , Tian-Yang Sun , Yu-Xin Wang , Yong-Xin Zhang , Shang-Jie Jin , Jing-Fei Zhang , Xin Zhang

Parameter estimation (PE) for compact binary coalescence (CBC) events observed by gravitational wave (GW) laser interferometers is a core task in GW astrophysics. We present a method to compute the posterior distribution efficiently without…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2025-09-09 Jonathan Mushkin , Javier Roulet , Barak Zackay , Tejaswi Venumadhav , Oryna Ivashtenko , Digvijay Wadekar , Ajit Kumar Mehta , Matias Zaldarriaga

Inferring astrophysical information from gravitational waves emitted by compact binaries is one of the key science goals of gravitational-wave astronomy. In order to reach the full scientific potential of gravitational-wave experiments we…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2016-08-30 Rory Smith , Scott E. Field , Kent Blackburn , Carl-Johan Haster , Michael Pürrer , Vivien Raymond , Patricia Schmidt

Bayesian inference is the workhorse of gravitational-wave astronomy, for example, determining the mass and spins of merging black holes, revealing the neutron star equation of state, and unveiling the population properties of compact…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2019-09-04 Colm Talbot , Rory Smith , Eric Thrane , Gregory B. Poole

Gravitational wave (GW) detection is now commonplace and as the sensitivity of the global network of GW detectors improves, we will observe $\mathcal{O}(100)$s of transient GW events per year. The current methods used to estimate their…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2022-01-21 Hunter Gabbard , Chris Messenger , Ik Siong Heng , Francesco Tonolini , Roderick Murray-Smith

In the gravitational-wave analysis of pulsar-timing-array datasets, parameter estimation is usually performed using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to explore posterior probability densities. We introduce an alternative procedure that…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2024-05-16 Michele Vallisneri , Marco Crisostomi , Aaron D. Johnson , Patrick M. Meyers

Gravitational waves emitted by a ringing black hole allow us to perform precision tests of general relativity in the strong field regime. With improvements to our current gravitational wave detectors and upcoming next-generation detectors,…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2024-12-04 Costantino Pacilio , Swetha Bhagwat , Roberto Cotesta

This article introduces VARAHA, an open-source, fast, non-Markovian sampler for estimating gravitational-wave posteriors. VARAHA differs from existing Nested sampling algorithms by gradually discarding regions of low likelihood, rather than…

High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena · Physics 2023-07-19 Vaibhav Tiwari , Charlie Hoy , Stephen Fairhurst , Duncan MacLeod

Variational Bayesian Inference is a popular methodology for approximating posterior distributions over Bayesian neural network weights. Recent work developing this class of methods has explored ever richer parameterizations of the…

We report the results of an in-depth analysis of the parameter estimation capabilities of BayesWave, an algorithm for the reconstruction of gravitational-wave signals without reference to a specific signal model. Using binary black hole…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2019-02-13 Francesco Pannarale , Ronaldas Macas , Patrick J. Sutton

To adopt neural networks in safety critical domains, knowing whether we can trust their predictions is crucial. Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) provide uncertainty estimates by averaging predictions with respect to the posterior weight…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-17 Jannik Schmitt , Stefan Roth

Bayesian model selection provides a powerful and mathematically transparent framework to tackle hypothesis testing, such as detection tests of gravitational waves emitted during the coalescence of binary systems using ground-based laser…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2009-11-13 John Veitch , Alberto Vecchio