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Discrete diffusion models have emerged as powerful frameworks for generating structured categorical data. However, efficiently sampling from reward-tilted distributions remains a fundamental challenge. While Twisted Sequential Monte Carlo…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-25 Jaihoon Kim , Taehoon Yoon , Prin Phunyaphibarn , Seungjun Kim , Morteza Mardani , Minhyuk Sung

Ill-posed linear inverse problems arise frequently in various applications, from computational photography to medical imaging. A recent line of research exploits Bayesian inference with informative priors to handle the ill-posedness of such…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-27 Gabriel Cardoso , Yazid Janati El Idrissi , Sylvain Le Corff , Eric Moulines

We build on auto-encoding sequential Monte Carlo (AESMC): a method for model and proposal learning based on maximizing the lower bound to the log marginal likelihood in a broad family of structured probabilistic models. Our approach relies…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-04-06 Tuan Anh Le , Maximilian Igl , Tom Rainforth , Tom Jin , Frank Wood

We present an novel framework for efficiently and effectively extending the powerful continuous diffusion processes to discrete modeling. Previous approaches have suffered from the discrepancy between discrete data and continuous modeling.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-31 Yuxuan Gu , Xiaocheng Feng , Lei Huang , Yingsheng Wu , Zekun Zhou , Weihong Zhong , Kun Zhu , Bing Qin

We propose a variance reduction framework for variational inference using the Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method. Our framework is built on reparameterized gradient estimators and "recycles" parameters obtained from past update history in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-12-03 Masahiro Fujisawa , Issei Sato

This paper proposes a Sequential Monte Carlo approach for the Bayesian estimation of mixed causal and noncausal models. Unlike previous Bayesian estimation methods developed for these models, Sequential Monte Carlo offers extensive…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-08 Gianluca Cubadda , Francesco Giancaterini , Stefano Grassi

We propose a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method to efficiently and accurately compute cut-Bayesian posterior quantities of interest, variations of standard Bayesian approaches constructed primarily to account for model misspecification. We…

Computation · Statistics 2024-11-13 Joseph Mathews , Giri Gopalan , James Gattiker , Sean Smith , Devin Francom

In this paper, we provide bounds on the asymptotic variance for a class of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers designed for approximating multimodal distributions. Such methods combine standard SMC methods and Markov chain Monte Carlo…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-01-25 Daniel Paulin , Ajay Jasra , Alexandre Thiery

The advantages of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) are exploited to develop parameter estimation and model selection methods for GARCH (Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) style models. It provides an alternative method…

Applications · Statistics 2020-03-06 Dan Li , Adam Clements , Christopher Drovandi

This paper presents a new approach to automatically discovering accurate models of complex time series data. Working within a Bayesian nonparametric prior over a symbolic space of Gaussian process time series models, we present a novel…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-20 Feras A. Saad , Brian J. Patton , Matthew D. Hoffman , Rif A. Saurous , Vikash K. Mansinghka

Preliminary low-thrust spacecraft mission design is a global search problem characterized by a complex solution landscape, multiple objectives, and numerous local minima. During this phase, mission parameters are often not yet fully…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-05-12 Jannik Graebner , Ryne Beeson

Score-based diffusion models have emerged as one of the most promising frameworks for deep generative modelling. In this work we conduct a systematic comparison and theoretical analysis of different approaches to learning conditional…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-29 Georgios Batzolis , Jan Stanczuk , Carola-Bibiane Schönlieb , Christian Etmann

Monte Carlo simulations of diffusion processes often introduce bias in the final result, due to time discretization. Using an auxiliary Poisson process, it is possible to run simulations which are unbiased. In this article, we propose such…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-05-09 Louis Paulot

Probabilistic prediction of sequences from images and other high-dimensional data is a key challenge, particularly in risk-sensitive applications. In these settings, it is often desirable to quantify the uncertainty associated with the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-31 Qidong Yang , Weicheng Zhu , Joseph Keslin , Laure Zanna , Tim G. J. Rudner , Carlos Fernandez-Granda

Cross-modality data translation has attracted great interest in image computing. Deep generative models (\textit{e.g.}, GANs) show performance improvement in tackling those problems. Nevertheless, as a fundamental challenge in image…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-02-01 Zihao Wang , Yingyu Yang , Maxime Sermesant , Hervé Delingette , Ona Wu

Guided or controlled data generation with diffusion models\blfootnote{Partial preliminary results of this work appeared in International Conference on Machine Learning 2025 \citep{li2025provable}.} has become a cornerstone of modern…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-05 Yuchen Jiao , Yuxin Chen , Gen Li

Diffusion models enable the synthesis of highly accurate samples from complex distributions and have become foundational in generative modeling. Recently, they have demonstrated significant potential for solving Bayesian inverse problems by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-17 Yazid Janati , Alain Durmus , Jimmy Olsson , Eric Moulines

Discrete data are abundant and often arise as counts or rounded data. These data commonly exhibit complex distributional features such as zero-inflation, over-/under-dispersion, boundedness, and heaping, which render many parametric models…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-27 Daniel R. Kowal , Bohan Wu

Most of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms in existing probabilistic programming systems suboptimally use only model priors as proposal distributions. In this work, we describe an approach for…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-05-17 Yura N Perov , Tuan Anh Le , Frank Wood

Conditional diffusion models have achieved remarkable success in various generative tasks recently, but their training typically relies on large-scale datasets that inevitably contain imprecise information in conditional inputs. Such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-13 Dong-Dong Wu , Jiacheng Cui , Wei Wang , Zhiqiang Shen , Masashi Sugiyama