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State estimation of multi-modal hybrid systems is an important problem with many applications in the field robotics. However, incorporating discrete modes in the estimation process is hampered by a potentially combinatorial growth in…

Robotics · Computer Science 2021-03-25 Fan Jiang , Varun Agrawal , Russell Buchanan , Maurice Fallon , Frank Dellaert

Importance sampling (IS) is a powerful Monte Carlo (MC) methodology for approximating integrals, for instance in the context of Bayesian inference. In IS, the samples are simulated from the so-called proposal distribution, and the choice of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-29 Ali Mousavi , Reza Monsefi , Víctor Elvira

Variational inference offers scalable and flexible tools to tackle intractable Bayesian inference of modern statistical models like Bayesian neural networks and Gaussian processes. For largely over-parameterized models, however, the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-12-03 Simone Rossi , Sebastien Marmin , Maurizio Filippone

Efficient Bayesian inference remains a computational challenge in hierarchical models. Simulation-based approaches such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods are still popular but have a large computational cost. When dealing with the large…

Computation · Statistics 2021-12-07 Cristian Chiuchiolo , Janet van Niekerk , Haavard Rue

Classic Bayesian methods with complex models are frequently infeasible due to an intractable likelihood. Simulation-based inference methods, such as Approximate Bayesian Computing (ABC), calculate posteriors without accessing a likelihood…

Computation · Statistics 2026-01-09 Elliot Maceda , Emily C. Hector , Amanda Lenzi , Brian J. Reich

Two major bottlenecks to the solution of large-scale Bayesian inverse problems are the scaling of posterior sampling algorithms to high-dimensional parameter spaces and the computational cost of forward model evaluations. Yet incomplete or…

Computation · Statistics 2016-05-03 Tiangang Cui , Youssef M. Marzouk , Karen E. Willcox

The methodology developed in this article is motivated by a wide range of prediction and uncertainty quantification problems that arise in Statistics, Machine Learning and Applied Mathematics, such as non-parametric regression, multi-class…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-03-26 Victor Chen , Matthew M. Dunlop , Omiros Papaspiliopoulos , Andrew M. Stuart

Necessary optimality conditions in Lagrangian form and the sequential minimization framework are extended to mixed-integer nonlinear optimization, without any convexity assumptions. Building upon a recently developed notion of local…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-04-10 Alberto De Marchi

In computational inverse problems, it is common that a detailed and accurate forward model is approximated by a computationally less challenging substitute. The model reduction may be necessary to meet constraints in computing time when…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-14 Daniela Calvetti , Matthew M. Dunlop , Erkki Somersalo , Andrew M. Stuart

Longitudinal data are important in numerous fields, such as healthcare, sociology and seismology, but real-world datasets present notable challenges for practitioners because they can be high-dimensional, contain structured missingness…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-01 Maksim Sinelnikov , Manuel Haussmann , Harri Lähdesmäki

The efficient resolution of Bayesian inverse problems remains challenging due to the high computational cost of traditional sampling methods. In this paper, we propose a novel framework that integrates Conditional Flow Matching (CFM) with a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-20 Daniil Sherki , Ivan Oseledets , Ekaterina Muravleva

For a Bayesian, the task to define the likelihood can be as perplexing as the task to define the prior. We focus on situations when the parameter of interest has been emancipated from the likelihood and is linked to data directly through a…

Computation · Statistics 2022-06-01 Lizhen Nie , Veronika Rockova

Solving ill-posed inverse problems by Bayesian inference has recently attracted considerable attention. Compared to deterministic approaches, the probabilistic representation of the solution by the posterior distribution can be exploited to…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2016-11-03 Felix Lucka

Latent space models are popular for analyzing dynamic network data. We propose a variational approach to estimate the model parameters as well as the latent positions of the nodes in the network. The variational approach is much faster than…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-01 Yan Liu , Yuguo Chen

The inferential model (IM) framework provides valid prior-free probabilistic inference by focusing on predicting unobserved auxiliary variables. But, efficient IM-based inference can be challenging when the auxiliary variable is of higher…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-01-20 Ryan Martin , Chuanhai Liu

Bayesian inference for doubly-intractable pairwise exponential graphical models typically involves variations of the exchange algorithm or approximate Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samplers. However, existing methods for both classes of…

Computation · Statistics 2026-03-30 Yujie Chen , Antik Chakraborty , Anindya Bhadra

Neural networks are popular state-of-the-art models for many different tasks.They are often trained via back-propagation to find a value of the weights that correctly predicts the observed data. Although back-propagation has shown good…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-29 Simón Rodríguez Santana , Daniel Hernández-Lobato

In recent years, pre-trained large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable efficiency in achieving an inference-time few-shot learning capability known as in-context learning. However, existing literature has highlighted the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-02-14 Xinyi Wang , Wanrong Zhu , Michael Saxon , Mark Steyvers , William Yang Wang

This paper is concerned with the numerical solution of model-based, Bayesian inverse problems. We are particularly interested in cases where the cost of each likelihood evaluation (forward-model call) is expensive and the number of un-…

Computation · Statistics 2016-07-25 Isabell M. Franck , P. S. Koutsourelakis

This work presents an efficient framework to generate a motion plan of a robot with high degrees of freedom (e.g., a humanoid robot). High-dimensionality of the robot configuration space often leads to difficulties in utilizing the…

Robotics · Computer Science 2018-08-02 Jung-Su Ha , Hyeok-Joo Chae , Han-Lim Choi