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When sampling for Bayesian inference, one popular approach is to use Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) and specifically the No-U-Turn Sampler (NUTS) which automatically decides the end time of the Hamiltonian trajectory. However, HMC and NUTS…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-25 Somayajulu L. N. Dhulipala , Yifeng Che , Michael D. Shields

The Multiple-try Metropolis (MTM) method is an interesting extension of the classical Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. However, theoretical understandings of its convergence behavior as well as whether and how it may help are still unknown.…

Computation · Statistics 2023-02-06 Xiaodong Yang , Jun S. Liu

Recent advancements in Mixed Integer Optimization (MIO) algorithms, paired with hardware enhancements, have led to significant speedups in resolving MIO problems. These strategies have been utilized for optimal subset selection,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-27 Madhav Sankaranarayanan , Intekhab Hossain , Tom Chen

Assume that we would like to estimate the expected value of a function $F$ with respect to an intractable density $\pi$, which is specified up to some unknown normalising constant. We prove that if $\pi$ is close enough under KL divergence…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-10-17 Siran Liu , Petros Dellaportas , Michalis K. Titsias

Likelihood-free Bayesian inference algorithms are popular methods for calibrating the parameters of complex, stochastic models, required when the likelihood of the observed data is intractable. These algorithms characteristically rely…

Computation · Statistics 2021-12-23 Thomas P Prescott , David J Warne , Ruth E Baker

We propose a fast and theoretically grounded method for Bayesian variable selection and model averaging in latent variable regression models. Our framework addresses three interrelated challenges: (i) intractable marginal likelihoods, (ii)…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-16 Gregor Zens , Mark F. J. Steel

Uncertainty quantification for large-scale inverse problems remains a challenging task. For linear inverse problems with additive Gaussian noise and Gaussian priors, the posterior is Gaussian but sampling can be challenging, especially for…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-05-14 Elle Buser , Julianne Chung

Inference for doubly intractable distributions is challenging because the intractable normalizing functions of these models include parameters of interest. Previous auxiliary variable MCMC algorithms are infeasible for multi-dimensional…

Computation · Statistics 2020-08-07 Jaewoo Park

Although the no-u-turn sampler (NUTS) is a widely adopted method for performing Bayesian inference, it requires numerous posterior gradients which can be expensive to compute in practice. Recently, there has been a significant interest in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-09-21 Somayajulu L. N. Dhulipala , Yifeng Che , Michael D. Shields

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) performs statistical inference for otherwise intractable probability models by accepting parameter proposals when corresponding simulated datasets are sufficiently close to the observations. Producing…

Computation · Statistics 2014-12-05 Dennis Prangle

This work proposes a novel method through which local information about the target density can be used to construct an efficient importance sampler. The backbone of the proposed method is the Incremental Mixture Importance Sampling (IMIS)…

Computation · Statistics 2016-11-22 Matteo Fasiolo , Flávio Eler de Melo , Simon Maskell

The ability to generate samples of the random effects from their conditional distributions is fundamental for inference in mixed effects models. Random walk Metropolis is widely used to perform such sampling, but this method is known to…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-10-29 Belhal Karimi , Marc Lavielle , Eric Moulines

Latent space models (LSMs) are often used to analyze dynamic (time-varying) networks that evolve in continuous time. Existing approaches to Bayesian inference for these models rely on Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, which cannot handle…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-19 Joshua Daniel Loyal

A quality-Bayesian approach, combining the direct sampling method and the Bayesian inversion, is proposed to reconstruct the locations and intensities of the unknown acoustic sources using partial data. First, we extend the direct sampling…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-04-10 Zhaoxing Li , Yanfang Liu , Jiguang Sun , Liwei Xu

Bayesian hierarchical models with latent Gaussian layers have proven very flexible in capturing complex stochastic behavior and hierarchical structures in high-dimensional spatial and spatio-temporal data. Whereas simulation-based Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-08-10 Thomas Opitz

This paper develops a Bayesian computational platform at the interface between posterior sampling and optimization in models whose marginal likelihoods are difficult to evaluate. Inspired by adversarial optimization, namely Generative…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-12-01 Tetsuya Kaji , Veronika Rockova

This paper presents a fast algorithm for estimating hidden states of Bayesian state space models. The algorithm is a variation of amortized simulation-based inference algorithms, where a large number of artificial datasets are generated at…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-10-14 Ramis Khabibullin , Sergei Seleznev

We present a new approach to automatic amortized inference in universal probabilistic programs which improves performance compared to current methods. Our approach is a variation of inference compilation (IC) which leverages deep neural…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-29 William Harvey , Andreas Munk , Atılım Güneş Baydin , Alexander Bergholm , Frank Wood

Bayesian inverse problems use data to update a prior probability distribution on uncertain parameter values to a posterior distribution. Such problems arise in many structural engineering applications, but computational solution of Bayesian…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-05-26 Jakob Scheffels , Elizabeth Qian , Iason Papaioannou , Elisabeth Ullmann

A simple strategy for improving LLM accuracy, especially in math and reasoning problems, is to sample multiple responses and submit the answer most consistently reached. In this paper we leverage Bayesian prior information to save on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-06 Jingkai Huang , Will Ma , Zhengyuan Zhou