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Causal discovery, i.e., inferring underlying causal relationships from observational data, is highly challenging for AI systems. In a time series modeling context, traditional causal discovery methods mainly consider constrained scenarios…

Kernel-based methods are used in the context of Granger Causality to enable the identification of nonlinear causal relationships between time series variables. In this paper, we show that two state of the art kernel-based Granger Causality…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-15 Fiona Murphy , Alessio Benavoli

As a pivotal component to attaining generalizable solutions in human intelligence, reasoning provides great potential for reinforcement learning (RL) agents' generalization towards varied goals by summarizing part-to-whole arguments and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-18 Wenhao Ding , Haohong Lin , Bo Li , Ding Zhao

In the fundamental statistics course, students are taught to remember the well-known saying: "Correlation is not Causation". Till now, statistics (i.e., correlation) have developed various successful frameworks, such as Transformer and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-11-22 Ning Xu , Yifei Gao , Hongshuo Tian , Yongdong Zhang , An-An Liu

In social sciences and economics, causal inference traditionally focuses on assessing the impact of predefined treatments (or interventions) on predefined outcomes, such as the effect of education programs on earnings. Causal discovery, in…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-07-12 Martin Huber

Time-series causal discovery methods rely on assumptions such as stationarity, regular sampling, and bounded temporal dependence. When these assumptions are violated, structure learning can produce confident but misleading causal graphs…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-06 Marco Ruiz , Miguel Arana-Catania , David R. Ardila , Rodrigo Ventura

Nonlinear causal discovery from observational data imposes strict identifiability assumptions on the formulation of structural equations utilized in the data generating process. The evaluation of structure learning methods under assumption…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-17 Georg Velev , Stefan Lessmann

Identifying the causal relationship among variables from observational data is an important yet challenging task. This work focuses on identifying the direct causes of an outcome and estimating their magnitude, i.e., learning the causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-08 Zhenyu Wang , Yifan Hu , Peter Bühlmann , Zijian Guo

The assumption of independence between observations (units) in a dataset is prevalent across various methodologies for learning causal graphical models. However, this assumption often finds itself in conflict with real-world data, posing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-31 Alex Chen , Qing Zhou

Machine learning approaches commonly rely on the assumption of independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) data. In reality, however, this assumption is almost always violated due to distribution shifts between environments. Although…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-18 Ronan Perry , Julius von Kügelgen , Bernhard Schölkopf

Causal discovery from observational data is a fundamental task in artificial intelligence, with far-reaching implications for decision-making, predictions, and interventions. Despite significant advances, existing methods can be broadly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-06 Jincheng Zhou , Mengbo Wang , Anqi He , Yumeng Zhou , Hessam Olya , Murat Kocaoglu , Bruno Ribeiro

Controllable molecular graph generation is essential for material and drug discovery, where generated molecules must satisfy diverse property constraints. While recent advances in graph diffusion models have improved generation quality,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-30 Anjie Qiao , Zhen Wang , Chuan Chen , DeFu Lian , Enhong Chen

Temporally evolving systems are typically modeled by dynamic equations. A key challenge in accurate modeling is understanding the causal relationships between subsystems, as well as identifying the presence and influence of unobserved…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-28 András Telcs , Marcell T. Kurbucz , Antal Jakovác

Evaluating platform-level interventions in search-based two-sided marketplaces is fundamentally challenged by systemic effects such as spillovers and network interference. While widely used for causal inference, the PSM (Propensity Score…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-11-04 Ying Song , Yijing Wang , Hui Yang , Weihan Jin , Jun Xiong , Congyi Zhou , Jialin Zhu , Xiang Gao , Rong Chen , HuaGuang Deng , Ying Dai , Fei Xiao , Haihong Tang , Bo Zheng , KaiFu Zhang

Identification theory for causal effects in causal models associated with hidden variable directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) is well studied. However, the corresponding algorithms are underused due to the complexity of estimating the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-17 Rohit Bhattacharya , Razieh Nabi , Ilya Shpitser

Since distribution shifts are common in real-world applications, there is a pressing need to develop prediction models that are robust against such shifts. Existing frameworks, such as empirical risk minimization or distributionally robust…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-25 Xinwei Shen , Peter Bühlmann , Armeen Taeb

Causal discovery aims to uncover cause-and-effect relationships encoded in causal graphs by leveraging observational, interventional data, or their combination. The majority of existing causal discovery methods are developed assuming…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-25 Muhammad Qasim Elahi , Lai Wei , Murat Kocaoglu , Mahsa Ghasemi

In many application areas---lending, education, and online recommenders, for example---fairness and equity concerns emerge when a machine learning system interacts with a dynamically changing environment to produce both immediate and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-07 Elliot Creager , David Madras , Toniann Pitassi , Richard Zemel

Causal discovery aims to learn causal relationships between variables from targeted data, making it a fundamental task in machine learning. However, causal discovery algorithms often rely on unverifiable causal assumptions, which are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-15 Huiyang Yi , Yanyan He , Duxin Chen , Mingyu Kang , He Wang , Wenwu Yu

Under stringent model type and variable distribution assumptions, differentiable score-based causal discovery methods learn a directed acyclic graph (DAG) from observational data by evaluating candidate graphs over an average score…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-07 An Zhang , Fangfu Liu , Wenchang Ma , Zhibo Cai , Xiang Wang , Tat-seng Chua