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Tracking the spread of infectious disease during a pandemic has posed a great challenge to the governments and health sectors on a global scale. To facilitate informed public health decision-making, the concerned parties usually rely on…
Disease mapping analyses the distribution of several disease outcomes within a territory. Primary goals include identifying areas with unexpected changes in mortality rates, studying the relation among multiple diseases, and dividing the…
Human mortality data sets can be expressed as multiway data arrays, the dimensions of which correspond to categories by which mortality rates are reported, such as age, sex, country and year. Regression models for such data typically assume…
There is increasing interest in flexible parametric models for the analysis of time-to-event data, yet Bayesian approaches that offer incorporation of prior knowledge remain underused. A flexible Bayesian parametric model has recently been…
Heterogeneous treatment effect estimation is critical in oncology, particularly in multi-arm trials with overlapping therapeutic components and long-term survivors. These shared mechanisms pose a central challenge to identifying causal…
Demographic and health indicators may exhibit short or large short-term shocks; for example, armed conflicts, epidemics, or famines may cause shocks in period measures of life expectancy. Statistical models for estimating historical trends…
In this paper, we analyzed how business age and mortality are related during the first years of life, and tested the different hypotheses proposed in the literature. For that, we used data on U.S. business establishments, with 1-year…
A one-to-one correspondence is established between the bridge path space of birth-death processes and the exclusive union of the product spaces of simplexes and integer grids. Formulae are derived for the exact counting of the integer grid…
This paper develops a granular regime-switching framework to model mortality deviations from seasonal baseline trends driven by temperature and epidemic shocks. The framework features three states: (1) a baseline state that captures…
Infodemics are a threat to public health, arising from multiple interacting phenomena occurring both online and offline. The continuous feedback loops between the digital information ecosystem and offline contingencies make infodemics…
The existing life table method needs to calculate the age-specific mortality first, not only has too many and complicated calculation steps, but also introduces the multiple approximation to bring error. This paper redefines the probability…
Age-dependent dynamics is an important characteristic of many infectious diseases. Age-group epidemic models describe the infection dynamics in different age-groups by allowing to set distinct parameter values for each. However, such models…
The death toll for Covid-19 may be reduced by dividing the population into two classes, the vulnerable and the fit, with different lockdown regimes. Instead of one reproduction number there now are four parameters. These make it possible to…
Dynamic assessment of mortality risk in the intensive care unit (ICU) can be used to stratify patients, inform about treatment effectiveness or serve as part of an early-warning system. Static risk scoring systems, such as APACHE or SAPS,…
We propose a method to quantify uncertainty around individual survival distribution estimates using right-censored data, compatible with any survival model. Unlike classical confidence intervals, the survival bands produced by this method…
Competing risks occur in survival analysis when multiple causes of death are present. They play a prominent role in several domains extending beyond biostatistics to encompass epidemiology, actuarial sciences, and reliability theory. This…
This paper describes methodological details used by WHO in 2015 to estimate TB incidence, prevalence and mortality. Incidence and mortality are disaggregated by HIV status, age and sex. Methods to derive MDR-TB burden indicators are…
The analysis of population-wide datasets can provide insight on the health status of large populations so that public health officials can make data-driven decisions. The analysis of such datasets often requires highly parameterized models…
Artificial intelligence applied to electrocardiography (AI-ECG) shows potential for mortality prediction, but heterogeneous approaches and private datasets have limited generalizable insights. To address this, we systematically evaluated…
We use the illness-death model (IDM) for chronic conditions to derive a new analytical relation between the transition rates between the states of the IDM. The transition rates are the incidence rate (i) and the mortality rates of people…