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Model analysis provides a mechanism for representing student learning as measured by standard multiple-choice surveys. The model plot contains information regarding both how likely students in a particular class are to choose the correct…

Physics Education · Physics 2016-10-12 Trevor I. Smith

The common practice for displaying error bars on distributions of numbers of events is confusing and can lead to incorrect conclusions. A proposal is made for a different style of presentation that more directly indicates the level of…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2012-01-31 Ritu Aggarwal , Allen Caldwell

Simulation techniques are providing with each passing day a deeper insight into the structure and properties of materials. Two main obstacles appear for the cooperation of simulation and experiment: on the one hand, the frequent lack of a…

Materials Science · Physics 2018-06-29 Francesca Peccati , Rubén Laplaza , Julia Contreras-García

As data-driven intelligent systems advance, the need for reliable and transparent decision-making mechanisms has become increasingly important. Therefore, it is essential to integrate uncertainty quantification and model explainability…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-13 Nijat Mehdiyev , Maxim Majlatow , Peter Fettke

Correlation matrix visualization is essential for understanding the relationships between variables in a dataset, but missing data can pose a significant challenge in estimating correlation coefficients. In this paper, we compare the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-06 Nhat-Hao Pham , Khanh-Linh Vo , Mai Anh Vu , Thu Nguyen , Michael A. Riegler , Pål Halvorsen , Binh T. Nguyen

This guide offers suggestions/insights on uncertainty quantification of nuclear structure models. We discuss a simple approach to statistical error estimates, strategies to assess systematic errors, and show how to uncover…

Nuclear Theory · Physics 2014-05-26 J. Dobaczewski , W. Nazarewicz , P. -G. Reinhard

I present in this paper a method to calibrate data obtained from optical and infrared interferometers. I show that correlated noises and errors need to be taken into account for a very good estimate of individual error bars but also when…

Astrophysics · Physics 2009-11-07 G. Perrin

Accurate quantification of model uncertainty has long been recognized as a fundamental requirement for trusted AI. In regression tasks, uncertainty is typically quantified using prediction intervals calibrated to a specific operating point,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-03 Jiri Navratil , Benjamin Elder , Matthew Arnold , Soumya Ghosh , Prasanna Sattigeri

Scatter plots carry an implicit if subtle message about causality. Whether we look at functions of one variable in pure mathematics, plots of experimental measurements as a function of the experimental conditions, or scatter plots of…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2018-09-26 Carl T. Bergstrom , Jevin D. West

An important task in visualization is the extraction and highlighting of dominant features in data to support users in their analysis process. Topological methods are a well-known means of identifying such features in deterministic fields.…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2023-01-09 Dominik Vietinghoff , Michael Böttinger , Gerik Scheuermann , Christian Heine

Causality has traditionally been a scientific way to generate knowledge by relating causes to effects. From an imaginery point of view, causal graphs are a helpful tool for representing and infering new causal information. In previous…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-02-07 Eduardo C. Garrido-Merchán , C. Puente , A. Sobrino , J. A. Olivas

In this provocation, we suggest that much (although not all) current uncertainty visualization simplifies the myriad forms of uncertainty into error bars around an estimate. This apparent simplification into error bars comes only as a…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2025-09-11 Michael Correll , Lane Harrison

Modern regression applications can involve hundreds or thousands of variables which motivates the use of variable selection methods. Bayesian variable selection defines a posterior distribution on the possible subsets of the variables…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-16 J. E. Griffin

Nearly all statistical analyses that inform policy-making are based on imperfect data. As examples, the data may suffer from measurement errors, missing values, sample selection bias, or record linkage errors. Analysts have to decide how to…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-24 Adway S. Wadekar , Jerome P. Reiter

As the world increasingly relies on mathematical models for forecasts in different areas, effective communication of uncertainty in time series predictions is important for informed decision making. This study explores how users estimate…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2024-08-23 Apoorva Karagappa , Pawandeep Kaur Betz , Jonas Gilg , Moritz Zeumer , Andreas Gerndt , Bernhard Preim

When data contains measurement errors, it is necessary to make assumptions relating the observed, erroneous data to the unobserved true phenomena of interest. These assumptions should be justifiable on substantive grounds, but are often…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-24 Noam Finkelstein , Roy Adams , Suchi Saria , Ilya Shpitser

This paper presents a novel end-to-end framework for closed-form computation and visualization of critical point uncertainty in 2D uncertain scalar fields. Critical points are fundamental topological descriptors used in the visualization…

In some multivariate problems with missing data, pairs of variables exist that are never observed together. For example, some modern biological tools can produce data of this form. As a result of this structure, the covariance matrix is…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-08-13 Max Grazier G'Sell , Shai S. Shen-Orr , Robert Tibshirani

Understanding and evaluating uncertainty play a key role in decision-making. When a viewer studies a visualization that demands inference, it is necessary that uncertainty is portrayed in it. This paper showcases the importance of…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2023-01-19 Krisha Mehta

An important step for any causal inference study design is understanding the distribution of the treated and control subjects in terms of measured baseline covariates. However, not all baseline variation is equally important. In the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-02 Rachael C. Aikens , Michael Baiocchi
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