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We consider the problem of estimating the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome in linear structural causal models (SCM) with latent confounders when we have access to a single proxy variable. Several methods (such as…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2023-06-13 Yaroslav Kivva , Saber Salehkaleybar , Negar Kiyavash

The use of observational time series data to assess the impact of multi-time point interventions is becoming increasingly common as more health and activity data are collected and digitized via wearables, social media, and electronic health…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-01 Roy Adams , Suchi Saria , Michael Rosenblum

Effect modification occurs when the impact of the treatment on an outcome varies based on the levels of other covariates known as effect modifiers. Modeling these effect differences is important for etiological goals and for purposes of…

Observational data are often used to estimate real-world effectiveness and durability of vaccines. A sequence of trials can be emulated to draw inference from such data while minimizing selection bias, immortal time bias, and confounding.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-03 Justin B. DeMonte , Bonnie E. Shook-Sa , Michael G. Hudgens

As clinical decision-making increasingly moves toward individualized and context-specific treatment recommendations, reliance on any single evidence source, randomized or observational, may be insufficient. Principled integration of…

Micro-randomized trials (MRTs) are widely used to assess the marginal and moderated effect of mobile health (mHealth) treatments delivered via mobile devices. In many applications, the mHealth treatments are categorical with multiple levels…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-23 Jeremy Lin , Tianchen Qian

Externally controlled trials (ECTs) compare outcomes between a single-arm trial and external controls drawn from sources such as historical trials, registries, or observational studies. In survival analysis, a major challenge arises when…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-18 Q. Le Coent , G. L. Rosner , M-C. Wang , C. Hu

Multi-regional clinical trials (MRCTs) play an increasingly crucial role in global pharmaceutical development by expediting data gathering and regulatory approval across diverse patient populations. However, differences in recruitment…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-15 Kaiyuan Hua , Hwanhee Hong , Xiaofei Wang

Nested simulation is a natural approach to tackle nested estimation problems in operations research and financial engineering. The outer-level simulation generates outer scenarios and the inner-level simulations are run in each outer…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2022-03-31 Kun Zhang , Ben Mingbin Feng , Guangwu Liu , Shiyu Wang

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is a type of bacteria resistant to certain antibiotics, making it difficult to prevent MRSA infections. Among decades of efforts to conquer infectious diseases caused by MRSA, many studies…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-18 Jing Ma , Chen Chen , Anil Vullikanti , Ritwick Mishra , Gregory Madden , Daniel Borrajo , Jundong Li

We study variants of the average treatment effect on the treated with population parameters replaced by their sample counterparts. For each estimand, we derive the limiting distribution with respect to a semiparametric efficient estimator…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-12 Andrew Yiu

In observational studies, treatment may be adapted to covariates at several times without a fixed protocol, in continuous time. Treatment influences covariates, which influence treatment, which influences covariates, and so on. Then even…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-09-02 Judith J. Lok

The STEP 1 randomized trial evaluated the effect of taking semaglutide vs placebo on body weight over a 68 week duration. As with any study evaluating an intervention delivered over a sustained period, non-adherence was observed. This was…

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are the accepted standard for treatment effect estimation but they can be infeasible due to ethical reasons and prohibitive costs. Single-arm trials, where all patients belong to the treatment group, can…

In cluster-randomized trials (CRTs), there is emerging interest in exploring the causal mechanism in which a cluster-level treatment affects the outcome through an intermediate outcome. The majority of existing causal mediation methods are…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-12 Chao Cheng , Fan Li

Existing statistical methods for the analysis of micro-randomized trials (MRTs) are designed to estimate causal excursion effects using data from a single MRT. In practice, however, researchers can often find previous MRTs that employ…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-13 Easton Huch , Inbal Nahum-Shani , Lindsey Potter , Cho Lam , David W. Wetter , Walter Dempsey

Paired cluster-randomized experiments (pCRTs) are common across many disciplines because there is often natural clustering of individuals, and paired randomization can help balance baseline covariates to improve experimental precision.…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-03 Charlotte Z. Mann , Adam C. Sales , Johann A. Gagnon-Bartsch

An extensive library of symptom inventories has been developed over time to measure clinical symptoms, but this variety has led to several long standing issues. Most notably, results drawn from different settings and studies are not…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-09-12 Eamonn Kennedy , Shashank Vadlamani , Hannah M Lindsey , Kelly S Peterson , Kristen Dams OConnor , Kenton Murray , Ronak Agarwal , Houshang H Amiri , Raeda K Andersen , Talin Babikian , David A Baron , Erin D Bigler , Karen Caeyenberghs , Lisa Delano-Wood , Seth G Disner , Ekaterina Dobryakova , Blessen C Eapen , Rachel M Edelstein , Carrie Esopenko , Helen M Genova , Elbert Geuze , Naomi J Goodrich-Hunsaker , Jordan Grafman , Asta K Haberg , Cooper B Hodges , Kristen R Hoskinson , Elizabeth S Hovenden , Andrei Irimia , Neda Jahanshad , Ruchira M Jha , Finian Keleher , Kimbra Kenney , Inga K Koerte , Spencer W Liebel , Abigail Livny , Marianne Lovstad , Sarah L Martindale , Jeffrey E Max , Andrew R Mayer , Timothy B Meier , Deleene S Menefee , Abdalla Z Mohamed , Stefania Mondello , Martin M Monti , Rajendra A Morey , Virginia Newcombe , Mary R Newsome , Alexander Olsen , Nicholas J Pastorek , Mary Jo Pugh , Adeel Razi , Jacob E Resch , Jared A Rowland , Kelly Russell , Nicholas P Ryan , Randall S Scheibel , Adam T Schmidt , Gershon Spitz , Jaclyn A Stephens , Assaf Tal , Leah D Talbert , Maria Carmela Tartaglia , Brian A Taylor , Sophia I Thomopoulos , Maya Troyanskaya , Eve M Valera , Harm Jan van der Horn , John D Van Horn , Ragini Verma , Benjamin SC Wade , Willian SC Walker , Ashley L Ware , J Kent Werner , Keith Owen Yeates , Ross D Zafonte , Michael M Zeineh , Brandon Zielinski , Paul M Thompson , Frank G Hillary , David F Tate , Elisabeth A Wilde , Emily L Dennis

When the Stable Unit Treatment Value Assumption is violated and there is interference among units, there is not a uniquely defined Average Treatment Effect, and alternative estimands may be of interest. Among these are average unit-level…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-30 Molly Offer-Westort , Drew Dimmery

Clinical trials are essential to drug development but time-consuming, costly, and prone to failure. Accurate trial outcome prediction based on historical trial data promises better trial investment decisions and more trial success. Existing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-12 Zifeng Wang , Cao Xiao , Jimeng Sun
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