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Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) are regarded as the gold standard for estimating causal treatment effects on health outcomes. However, RCTs are not always feasible, because of time, budget or ethical constraints. Observational data such…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-20 Li Su , Roonak Rezvani , Shaun R. Seaman , Colin Starr , Isaac Gravestock

The target trial framework enables causal inference from longitudinal observational data by emulating randomized trials initiated at multiple time points. Precision is often improved by pooling information across trials, with standard…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-08 Edoardo Efrem Gervasoni , Liesbet De Bus , Stijn Vansteelandt , Oliver Dukes

Cluster-randomized trials (CRTs) are widely used to evaluate group-level interventions and increasingly collect multiple outcomes capturing complementary dimensions of benefit and risk. Investigators often seek a single global summary of…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-22 Xinyuan Chen , Fan Li

In stepped wedge cluster randomized trials (SW-CRTs), observations collected under the control condition are, on average, from an earlier time than observations collected under the intervention condition. In a cohort design, participants…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-23 Jale Basten , Katja Ickstadt , Nina Timmesfeld

A randomized trial and an analysis of observational data designed to emulate the trial sample observations separately, but have the same eligibility criteria, collect information on some shared baseline covariates, and compare the effects…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-29 Issa J. Dahabreh , Jon A. Steingrimsson , James M. Robins , Miguel A. Hernán

In stepped wedge cluster randomized trials (SW-CRTs), the intervention is rolled out to clusters over multiple periods. A standard approach for analyzing SW-CRTs utilizes the linear mixed model, where the treatment effect is only present…

Platform trials are multi-arm designs that simultaneously evaluate multiple treatments for a single disease within the same overall trial structure. Unlike traditional randomized controlled trials, they allow treatment arms to enter and…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-16 Michele Santacatterina , Federico Macchiavelli Giron , Xinyi Zhang , Ivan Diaz

Background: Stepped wedge cluster randomized trials (SW-CRTs) involve sequential measurements within clusters over time. Initially, all clusters start in the control condition before crossing over to the intervention on a staggered…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-21 Jale Basten , Katja Ickstadt , Nina Timmesfeld

Confounding is a significant obstacle to unbiased estimation of causal effects from observational data. For settings with high-dimensional covariates -- such as text data, genomics, or the behavioral social sciences -- researchers have…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-02-01 Katherine A. Keith , Sergey Feldman , David Jurgens , Jonathan Bragg , Rohit Bhattacharya

Continuous outcome measurements truncated by death present a challenge for the estimation of unbiased treatment effects in randomized controlled trials (RCTs). One way to deal with such situations is to estimate the survivor average causal…

The purpose of this article is to infer patient level outcomes from population level randomized control trials (RCTs). In this pursuit, we utilize the recently proposed synthetic nearest neighbors (SNN) estimator. At its core, SNN leverages…

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects with machine learning has attracted substantial attention in both academic research and industrial practice. However, the two communities often evaluate models under markedly different conditions.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-26 George Panagopoulos

Single-arm trials (SATs) may be used to support regulatory submissions in settings where there is a high unmet medical need and highly promising early efficacy data undermine the equipoise needed for randomization. In this context,…

This article studies the estimation of the causal effect of a time-varying treatment on time-to-an-event or on some other continuously distributed outcome. The paper applies to the situation where treatment is repeatedly adapted to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-06-19 Judith J. Lok

In sequential causal inference, one estimates the causal net effect of treatment in treatment sequence on an outcome after last treatment in the presence of time-dependent covariates between treatments, improves the estimation by the…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-11-18 Li Yin , Xiaoqin Wang

Randomized clinical trials (RCTs) are ideal for estimating causal effects, because the distributions of background covariates are similar in expectation across treatment groups. When estimating causal effects using observational data,…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-27 Anthony D. Scotina , Roee Gutman

Population-adjusted indirect comparisons estimate treatment effects when access to individual patient data is limited and there are cross-trial differences in effect modifiers. Popular methods include matching-adjusted indirect comparison…

Applications · Statistics 2021-11-05 Antonio Remiro-Azócar , Anna Heath , Gianluca Baio

Observational studies provide the only evidence on the effectiveness of interventions when randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are impractical due to cost, ethical concerns, or time constraints. While many methodologies aim to draw causal…

Assessing the causal effect of time-varying exposures on recurrent event processes is challenging in the presence of a terminating event. Our objective is to estimate both the short-term and delayed marginal causal effects of exposures on…

In this paper we review an approach to estimating the causal effect of a time-varying treatment on time to some event of interest. This approach is designed for the situation where the treatment may have been repeatedly adapted to patient…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 J. J. Lok , R. D. Gill , A. W. van der Vaart , J. M. Robins
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