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Phase I oncology trials aim to identify a safe dose - often the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) - for subsequent studies. Conventional designs focus on population-level toxicity modeling, with recent attention on leveraging pharmacokinetic…

Applications · Statistics 2026-01-13 Kyong Ju Lee , Yuan Ji

The two-trials rule for drug approval requires "at least two adequate and well-controlled studies, each convincing on its own, to establish effectiveness". This is usually implemented by requiring two significant pivotal trials and is the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-10 Leonhard Held

Data collection costs can vary widely across variables in data science tasks. Two-phase designs can be employed to save data collection costs. This paper considers the two-phase studies where inexpensive variables are collected for all…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-04 Ruoyu Wang , Qihua Wang , Wang Miao

We consider a modified Ci3+3 (MCi3+3) design for dual-agent dose-finding trials in which both agents are tested on multiple doses. This usually happens when the agents are novel therapies. The MCi3+3 design offers a two-stage or three-stage…

Applications · Statistics 2024-09-05 Jiaxin Liu , Shijie Yuan , Qiqi Deng , Yuan Ji

Optimal design of a Phase I cancer trial can be formulated as a stochastic optimization problem. By making use of recent advances in approximate dynamic programming to tackle the problem, we develop an approximation of the Bayesian optimal…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-12-01 Jay Bartroff , Tze Leung Lai

In phase I dose escalation studies for dual-agent combinations, at least one drug often has an established monotherapy dose. Consequently, substantial prior clinical safety data often exist for one or more monotherapies, allowing the study…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-07 Yuxuan Chen , Haiming Zhou , Keiko Nakajima , Philip He

In this article, we propose a phase I-II design in two stages for the combination of molecularly targeted therapies. The design is motivated by a published case study that combines a MEK and a PIK3CA inhibitors; a setting in which higher…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-21 José L. Jiménez , Mourad Tighiouart

An important tool to evaluate the performance of any design is an optimal benchmark proposed by O'Quigley and others (2002, Biostatistics 3(1), 51-56) that provides an upper bound on the performance of a design under a given scenario. The…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-03-06 Pavel Mozgunov , Thomas Jaki , Xavier Paoletti

In many settings people must give numerical scores to entities from a small discrete set. For instance, rating physical attractiveness from 1--5 on dating sites, or papers from 1--10 for conference reviewing. We study the problem of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-08-28 Sam Ganzfried , Farzana Yusuf

The question of selecting the "best" amongst different choices is a common problem in statistics. In drug development, our motivating setting, the question becomes, for example: what is the dose that gives me a pre-specified risk of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-03-15 Pavel Mozgunov , Thomas Jaki

Model-based experimental design is attracting increasing attention in chemical process engineering. Typically, an iterative procedure is pursued: an approximate model is devised, prescribed experiments are then performed and the resulting…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-01-25 Charlie Vanaret , Philipp Seufert , Jan Schwientek , Gleb Karpov , Gleb Ryzhakov , Ivan Oseledets , Norbert Asprion , Michael Bortz

It is possible to find the optimized radiation dose per session for a radiotherapy (RT) treatment, using a population dynamics model. This has already been done in a previous work for a protocol with 30 sessions and a fixed dose per…

The move towards personalized treatment and digital twins for cancer therapy requires a complete understanding of the mathematical models upon which these optimized simulation-based strategies are formulated. This study investigates the…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2025-11-21 Changin Oh , Kathleen P. Wilkie

Combination of several anti-cancer treatments has typically been presumed to have enhanced drug activity. Motivated by a real clinical trial, this paper considers phase I-II dose finding designs for dual-agent combinations, where one main…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-09 José L. Jiménez , Haiyan Zheng

We propose an efficient probabilistic method to solve a deterministic problem -- we present a randomized optimization approach that drastically reduces the enormous computational cost of optimizing designs under many load cases for both…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-10-11 Xiaojia Zhang , Eric de Sturler , Glaucio H. Paulino

Breakthroughs in cancer biology have defined new research programs emphasizing the development of therapies that target specific pathways in tumor cells. Innovations in clinical trial design have followed with master protocols defined by…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-09 Alexander M. Kaizer , Joseph S. Koopmeiners , Nan Chen , Brian P. Hobbs

In this paper, we propose a stochastic optimization method that adaptively controls the sample size used in the computation of gradient approximations. Unlike other variance reduction techniques that either require additional storage or the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-11-01 Raghu Bollapragada , Richard Byrd , Jorge Nocedal

The primary goal of dose allocation in phase I trials is to minimize patient exposure to subtherapeutic or excessively toxic doses, while accurately recommending a phase II dose that is as close as possible to the maximum tolerated dose…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-21 Jiapeng Xu , Dehua Bi , Shenghua Kelly Fan , Bee Leng Lee , Ying Lu

Some clinical and pre-clinical data suggests that treating some tumors at a mild, patient-specific dose might delay resistance to treatment and increase survival time. A recent mathematical model with sensitive and resistant tumor cells…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2022-12-01 Frank Alvarez , Yannick Viossat

Optimization software enables the solution of problems with millions of variables and associated parameters. These parameters are, however, often uncertain and represented with an analytical description of the parameter's distribution or…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-01-17 John R. Birge
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