Related papers: Realized range-based estimation of integrated vari…
The discrepancy between realized volatility and the market's view of volatility has been known to predict individual equity options at the monthly horizon. It is not clear how this predictability depends on a forecast's ability to predict…
An efficient estimator is constructed for the quadratic covariation or integrated co-volatility matrix of a multivariate continuous martingale based on noisy and nonsynchronous observations under high-frequency asymptotics. Our approach…
Parametric estimation for diffusion processes is considered for high frequency observations over a fixed time interval. The processes solve stochastic differential equations with an unknown parameter in the diffusion coefficient. We find…
As a rigorous statistical approach, statistical Taylor expansion extends the conventional Taylor expansion by replacing precise input variables with random variables of known distributions and sample counts to compute the mean, the…
Marginal expected shortfall is unquestionably one of the most popular systemic risk measures. Studying its extreme behaviour is particularly relevant for risk protection against severe global financial market downturns. In this context,…
Range-measured return contains more information than the traditional scalar-valued return. In this paper, we propose to model the [low, high] price range as a random interval and suggest an interval-valued GARCH (Int-GARCH) model for the…
Quadratic hedging of option payoffs generates the variance optimal martingale measure. When an option features an exercise policy and its cash flows are hedged according to this approach, it may be tempting to optimize such a policy under…
While generalized linear mixed models are a fundamental tool in applied statistics, many specifications, such as those involving categorical factors with many levels or interaction terms, can be computationally challenging to estimate due…
This paper introduces a novel quantile approach to harness the high-frequency information and improve the daily conditional quantile estimation. Specifically, we model the conditional standard deviation as a realized GARCH model and employ…
Flexible variational distributions improve variational inference but are harder to optimize. In this work we present a control variate that is applicable for any reparameterizable distribution with known mean and covariance matrix, e.g.…
The implicit trace estimation problem asks for an approximation of the trace of a square matrix, accessed via matrix-vector products (matvecs). This paper designs new randomized algorithms, XTrace and XNysTrace, for the trace estimation…
This paper analyzes the benefits of sampling intraday returns in intrinsic time for the realized variance (RV) estimator. We theoretically show in finite samples that depending on the permitted sampling information, the RV estimator is most…
We consider specification and inference for the stochastic scale of discretely-observed pure-jump semimartingales with locally stable L\'{e}vy densities in the setting where both the time span of the data set increases, and the mesh of the…
To explore the limits of a stochastic gradient method, it may be useful to consider an example consisting of an infinite number of quadratic functions. In this context, it is appropriate to determine the expected value and the covariance…
We revisit the replica method for analyzing inference and learning in parametric models, considering situations where the data-generating distribution is unknown or analytically intractable. Instead of assuming idealized distributions to…
For a semimartingale with jumps, we propose a new estimation method for integrated volatility, i.e., the quadratic variation of the continuous martingale part, based on the global jump filter proposed by Inatsugu and Yoshida [8]. To decide…
We present new estimators of the mean of a real valued random variable, based on PAC-Bayesian iterative truncation. We analyze the non-asymptotic minimax properties of the deviations of estimators for distributions having either a bounded…
This paper proposes an enhanced approach to modeling and forecasting volatility using high frequency data. Using a forecasting model based on Realized GARCH with multiple time-frequency decomposed realized volatility measures, we study the…
A semi-parametric joint Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) forecasting framework employing multiple realized measures is developed. The proposed framework extends the realized exponential GARCH model to be semi-parametrically…
We study the consistency of sample mean-variance portfolios of arbitrarily high dimension that are based on Bayesian or shrinkage estimation of the input parameters as well as weighted sampling. In an asymptotic setting where the number of…