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Many researchers have voiced their support towards Pearl's counterfactual theory of causation as a stepping stone for AI/ML research's ultimate goal of intelligent systems. As in any other growing subfield, patience seems to be a virtue…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-12-27 Matej Zečević , Moritz Willig , Devendra Singh Dhami , Kristian Kersting

Identifying causal parameters from observational data is fraught with subtleties due to the issues of selection bias and confounding. In addition, more complex questions of interest, such as effects of treatment on the treated and mediated…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-11-17 Ilya Shpitser , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

Interpretability research on large language models (LLMs) has yielded important insights into model behaviour, yet recurring pitfalls persist: findings that do not generalise, and causal interpretations that outrun the evidence. Our…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-20 Shruti Joshi , Aaron Mueller , David Klindt , Wieland Brendel , Patrik Reizinger , Dhanya Sridhar

The framework of Pearl's Causal Hierarchy (PCH) formalizes three types of reasoning: probabilistic (i.e. purely observational), interventional, and counterfactual, that reflect the progressive sophistication of human thought regarding…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-02-07 Julian Dörfler , Benito van der Zander , Markus Bläser , Maciej Liskiewicz

Causal discovery, the task of automatically constructing a causal model from data, is of major significance across the sciences. Evaluating the performance of causal discovery algorithms should ideally involve comparing the inferred models…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-08-26 Maxime Peyrard , Robert West

Structural causal models are the basic modelling unit in Pearl's causal theory; in principle they allow us to solve counterfactuals, which are at the top rung of the ladder of causation. But they often contain latent variables that limit…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-11-23 Marco Zaffalon , Alessandro Antonucci , Rafael Cabañas

To evaluate a single cause of a binary effect, Dawid et al. (2014) defined the probability of causation, while Pearl (2015) defined the probabilities of necessity and sufficiency. For assessing the multiple correlated causes of a binary…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-09 Shanshan Luo , Yixuan Yu , Chunchen Liu , Feng Xie , Zhi Geng

We show that it is possible to understand and identify a decision maker's subjective causal judgements by observing her preferences over interventions. Following Pearl [2000], we represent causality using causal models (also called…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2024-01-23 Joseph Y. Halpern , Evan Piermont

Interventions are of fundamental importance in Pearl's probabilistic causality regime. In this paper, we will inspect how interventions influence the interpretation of causation in causal models in specific situation. To this end, we will…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-03-27 Mehrzad Saremi

Addressing the problem of fairness is crucial to safely use machine learning algorithms to support decisions with a critical impact on people's lives such as job hiring, child maltreatment, disease diagnosis, loan granting, etc. Several…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-08 Karima Makhlouf , Sami Zhioua , Catuscia Palamidessi

To make effective decisions, it is important to have a thorough understanding of the causal relationships among actions, environments, and outcomes. This review aims to surface three crucial aspects of decision-making through a causal lens:…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-22 Lin Ge , Hengrui Cai , Runzhe Wan , Yang Xu , Rui Song

Causal mediation analysis is complicated with multiple effect definitions that require different sets of assumptions for identification. This paper provides a systematic explanation of such assumptions. We define five potential outcome…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-26 Trang Quynh Nguyen , Ian Schmid , Elizabeth L. Ogburn , Elizabeth A. Stuart

We define a Causal Decision Problem as a Decision Problem where the available actions, the family of uncertain events and the set of outcomes are related through the variables of a Causal Graphical Model $\mathcal{G}$. A solution criteria…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-02-07 M. Gonzalez-Soto , L. E. Sucar , H. J. Escalante

This paper deals with the problem of estimating the probability that one event was a cause of another in a given scenario. Using structural-semantical definitions of the probabilities of necessary or sufficient causation (or both), we show…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-18 Jin Tian , Judea Pearl

Identifying the effect of a treatment from observational data typically requires assuming a fully specified causal diagram. However, such diagrams are rarely known in practice, especially in complex or high-dimensional settings. To overcome…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-07-09 Clément Yvernes , Emilie Devijver , Marianne Clausel , Eric Gaussier

Identifying latent variables and causal structures from observational data is essential to many real-world applications involving biological data, medical data, and unstructured data such as images and languages. However, this task can be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-01 Lingjing Kong , Biwei Huang , Feng Xie , Eric Xing , Yuejie Chi , Kun Zhang

Causal representation learning aims to unveil latent high-level causal representations from observed low-level data. One of its primary tasks is to provide reliable assurance of identifying these latent causal models, known as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-02 Yuhang Liu , Zhen Zhang , Dong Gong , Mingming Gong , Biwei Huang , Anton van den Hengel , Kun Zhang , Javen Qinfeng Shi

Causal inference is a science with multi-disciplinary evolution and applications. On the one hand, it measures effects of treatments in observational data based on experimental designs and rigorous statistical inference to draw causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-05 Jingying Zeng , Run Wang

The abilities of humans to understand the world in terms of cause and effect relationships, as well as to compress information into abstract concepts, are two hallmark features of human intelligence. These two topics have been studied in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-26 Kevin Xia , Elias Bareinboim

As probabilistic systems gain popularity and are coming into wider use, the need for a mechanism that explains the system's findings and recommendations becomes more critical. The system will also need a mechanism for ordering competing…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-08 Urszula Chajewska , Joseph Y. Halpern
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