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Current Chain-of-Thought (CoT) verification methods predict reasoning correctness based on outputs (black-box) or activations (gray-box), but offer limited insight into why a computation fails. We introduce a white-box method: Circuit-based…
Automated story generation remains a difficult area of research because it lacks strong objective measures. Generated stories may be linguistically sound, but in many cases suffer poor narrative coherence required for a compelling,…
We introduce a method based on Conformal Prediction (CP) to quantify the uncertainty of full ranking algorithms. We focus on a specific scenario where $n+m$ items are to be ranked by some ``black box'' algorithm. It is assumed that the…
This research is to assess cryptocurrencies with the conditional beta, compared with prior studies based on unconditional beta or fixed beta. It is a new approach to building a pricing model for cryptocurrencies. Therefore, we expect that…
Generating scientific manuscripts requires maintaining alignment between narrative reasoning, experimental evidence, and visual artifacts across the document lifecycle. Existing language-model generation pipelines rely on unconstrained text…
The financial market is known to be highly sensitive to news. Therefore, effectively incorporating news data into quantitative trading remains an important challenge. Existing approaches typically rely on manually designed rules and/or…
With the recent prevalence of darkweb/deepweb (D2web) sites specializing in the trade of exploit kits and malware, malicious actors have easy-access to a wide-range of tools that can empower their offensive capability. In this study, we…
The performance of a reinforcement learning algorithm can vary drastically during learning because of exploration. Existing algorithms provide little information about the quality of their current policy before executing it, and thus have…
We discuss a weighted estimation of correlation and covariance matrices from historical financial data. To this end, we introduce a weighting scheme that accounts for similarity of previous market conditions to the present one. The…
Factor models characterize the joint behavior of large sets of financial assets through a smaller number of underlying drivers. We develop a network-based framework in which factors emerge naturally from the structure of interactions among…
Cryptocurrencies (or digital tokens, digital currencies, e.g., BTC, ETH, XRP, NEO) have been rapidly gaining ground in use, value, and understanding among the public, bringing astonishing profits to investors. Unlike other money and banking…
Multi-server MCP agents create an information-flow control problem: faithful tool composition can turn individually benign read/write permissions into cross-boundary credential propagation -- a structural side effect of workflow topology,…
Referred to as the third rung of the causal inference ladder, counterfactual queries typically ask the "What if ?" question retrospectively. The standard approach to estimate counterfactuals resides in using a structural equation model that…
The rapid spread of information over social media influences quantitative trading and investments. The growing popularity of speculative trading of highly volatile assets such as cryptocurrencies and meme stocks presents a fresh challenge…
While counterfactual fairness of point predictors is well studied, its extension to prediction sets--central to fair decision-making under uncertainty--remains underexplored. On the other hand, conformal prediction (CP) provides efficient,…
This study performs analysis of Predictive statements, Hope speech, and Regret Detection behaviors within cryptocurrency-related discussions, leveraging advanced natural language processing techniques. We introduce a novel classification…
In situations where explanations of black-box models may be useful, the fairness of the black-box is also often a relevant concern. However, the link between the fairness of the black-box model and the behavior of explanations for the…
Sentiment detection is an important building block for multiple information retrieval tasks such as product recommendation, cyberbullying detection, and misinformation detection. Unsurprisingly, multiple commercial APIs, each with different…
How crypto flows among Bitcoin users is an important question for understanding the structure and dynamics of the cryptoasset at a global scale. We compiled all the blockchain data of Bitcoin from its genesis to the year 2020, identified…
Blockchain finance has become a part of the world financial system, most typically manifested in the attention to the price of Bitcoin. However, a great deal of work is still limited to using technical indicators to capture Bitcoin price…