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We develop an algorithm for computing bounded reachability probability for hybrid systems, i.e., the probability that the system reaches an unsafe region within a finite number of discrete transitions. In particular, we focus on hybrid…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2015-05-13 Fedor Shmarov , Paolo Zuliani

The principle of maximum entropy is a broadly applicable technique for computing a distribution with the least amount of information possible constrained to match empirical data, for instance, feature expectations. We seek to generalize…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2022-05-30 Kenneth Bogert

We consider the problem of constructing confidence intervals (CIs) for the population mean of $N$ values $\{x_1, \ldots, x_N\} \subset \Sigma^N$ based on a random sample of size $n$, denoted by $X^n \equiv (X_1, \ldots, X_n)$, drawn…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-17 Shubhanshu Shekhar , Aaditya Ramdas

Emerging applications of sensor networks for detection sometimes suggest that classical problems ought be revisited under new assumptions. This is the case of binary hypothesis testing with independent - but not necessarily identically…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2019-03-27 Stefano Marano , Peter Willett

We present new sampling methods in finite population that allow to control the joint inclusion probabilities of units and especially the spreading of sampled units in the population. They are based on the use of renewal chains and…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-04-12 Yves Tillé , Lionel Qualité , Matthieu Wilhelm

The identification of causal effects in observational studies typically relies on two standard assumptions: unconfoundedness and overlap. However, both assumptions are often questionable in practice: unconfoundedness is inherently…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-17 Han Cui , Xinran Li

We first review existing sequential methods for estimating a binomial proportion. Afterward, we propose a new family of group sequential sampling schemes for estimating a binomial proportion with prescribed margin of error and confidence…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-11-05 Zhengjia Chen , Xinjia Chen

When causal quantities cannot be point identified, researchers often pursue partial identification to quantify the range of possible values. However, the peculiarities of applied research conditions can make this analytically intractable.…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-29 Guilherme Duarte , Noam Finkelstein , Dean Knox , Jonathan Mummolo , Ilya Shpitser

We study parametric inference on a rich class of hazard regression models in the presence of right-censoring. Previous literature has reported some inferential challenges, such as multimodal or flat likelihood surfaces, in this class of…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-10 F. J. Rubio , J. A. Espindola , J. A. Montoya

This paper proposes an easy-to-compute upper bound for the overlap index between two probability distributions without requiring any knowledge of the distribution models. The computation of our bound is time-efficient and memory-efficient…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-02 Hao Fu , Prashanth Krishnamurthy , Siddharth Garg , Farshad Khorrami

To answer questions of "causes of effects", the probability of necessity is introduced for assessing whether or not an observed outcome was caused by an earlier treatment. However, the statistical inference for probability of necessity is…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-14 Ping Zhang , Ruoyu Wang , Wang Miao

Two non-intrusive uncertainty propagation approaches are proposed for the performance analysis of engineering systems described by expensive-to-evaluate deterministic computer models with parameters defined as interval variables. These…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-02-15 Alice Cicirello , Filippo Giunta

The likelihood-free sequential Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) algorithms, are increasingly popular inference tools for complex biological models. Such algorithms proceed by constructing a succession of probability distributions over…

Computation · Statistics 2012-10-12 Daniel Silk , Saran Filippi , Michael P. H. Stumpf

The following learning problem arises naturally in various applications: Given a finite sample from a categorical or count time series, can we learn a function of the sample that (nearly) maximizes the probability of correctly guessing the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-27 J. -R. Chazottes , S. Gallo , D. Takahashi

We construct exact confidence intervals for the average treatment effect in randomized experiments with binary outcomes using sequences of randomization tests. Our approach does not rely on large-sample approximations and is valid for all…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-25 Peng Zhang

In statistical inference, confidence set procedures are typically evaluated based on their validity and width properties. Even when procedures achieve rate-optimal widths, confidence sets can still be excessively wide in practice due to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-20 Kenta Takatsu

We consider the \mnk{classical} problem of a controller activating (or sampling) sequentially from a finite number of $N \geq 2$ populations, specified by unknown distributions. Over some time horizon, at each time $n = 1, 2, \ldots$, the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-12-18 Wesley Cowan , Michael N. Katehakis

The availability of high-throughput parallel methods for sequencing microbial communities is increasing our knowledge of the microbial world at an unprecedented rate. Though most attention has focused on determining lower-bounds on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-09-15 Manuel Lladser , Raúl Gouet , Jens Reeder

Anomaly detection when observing a large number of data streams is essential in a variety of applications, ranging from epidemiological studies to monitoring of complex systems. High-dimensional scenarios are usually tackled with…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-18 Ivo V. Stoepker , Rui M. Castro , Ery Arias-Castro , Edwin van den Heuvel

Experimenters report an upper limit if the signal they are trying to detect is non-existent or below their experiment's sensitivity. Such experiments may be contaminated with a background too poorly understood to subtract. If the background…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2009-11-07 S. Yellin