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This paper considers the problem of adaptive estimation of a non-homogeneous intensity function from the observation of n independent Poisson processes having a common intensity that is randomly shifted for each observed trajectory. We show…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-05-20 Jérémie Bigot , Sébastien Gadat , Thierry Klein , Clément Marteau

In time series data analysis, detecting change points on a real-time basis (online) is of great interest in many areas, such as finance, environmental monitoring, and medicine. One promising means to achieve this is the Bayesian online…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-01-10 Ginga Yoshizawa

The problem of finding the expected value of a statistic of a locally stable point process in a bounded region is addressed. We propose an adaptive importance sampling for solving the problem. In our proposal, we restrict the importance…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-04 Hee-Geon Kang , Sunggon Kim

We study online changepoint detection in the context of a linear regression model. We propose a class of heavily weighted statistics based on the CUSUM process of the regression residuals, which are specifically designed to ensure timely…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-08 Fabrizio Ghezzi , Eduardo Rossi , Lorenzo Trapani

This article studies the problem of online non-parametric change point detection in multivariate data streams. We approach the problem through the lens of kernel-based two-sample testing and introduce a sequential testing procedure based on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-31 Florian Kalinke , Shakeel Gavioli-Akilagun

Moments when a time series changes its behavior are called change points. Occurrence of change point implies that the state of the system is altered and its timely detection might help to prevent unwanted consequences. In this paper, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-10 Mikhail Hushchyn , Kenenbek Arzymatov , Denis Derkach

We consider forecasting the latent rate profiles of a time series of inhomogeneous Poisson processes. The work is motivated by operations management of queueing systems, in particular, telephone call centers, where accurate forecasting of…

Applications · Statistics 2008-07-28 Haipeng Shen , Jianhua Z. Huang

We consider a popular online change-point problem of detecting a transient change in distributions of i.i.d. random variables. For this change-point problem, several change-point procedures are formulated and some advanced results for a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-04-08 Jack Noonan

Change-point detection methods are proposed for the case of temporary failures, or transient changes, when an unexpected disorder is ultimately followed by a readjustment and return to the initial state. A base distribution of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-12-14 Baron Michael , Malov Sergey

Doubly-stochastic point processes model the occurrence of events over a spatial domain as an inhomogeneous Poisson process conditioned on the realization of a random intensity function. They are flexible tools for capturing spatial…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-28 Si Cheng , Jon Wakefield , Ali Shojaie

Change point analysis has applications in a wide variety of fields. The general problem concerns the inference of a change in distribution for a set of time-ordered observations. Sequential detection is an online version in which new data…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-10-16 David S. Matteson , Nicholas A. James

Change point detection becomes more and more important as datasets increase in size, where unsupervised detection algorithms can help users process data. To detect change points, a number of unsupervised algorithms have been developed which…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-06-18 Rebecca Gedda , Larisa Beilina , Ruomu Tan

In this work, we propose a non-parametric and robust change detection algorithm to detect multiple change points in time series data under contamination. The contamination model is sufficiently general, in that, the most common model used…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-24 Sujay Bhatt , Guanhua Fang , Ping Li

The Markov-modulated Poisson process is utilised for count modelling in a variety of areas such as queueing, reliability, network and insurance claims analysis. In this paper, we extend the Markov-modulated Poisson process framework through…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2020-08-06 Benjamin Avanzi , Greg Taylor , Bernard Wong , Alan Xian

Multivariate data sources with components of different information value seem to appear frequently in practice. Models in which the components change their homogeneity at different times are of significant importance. The fact whether any…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-11-04 Krzysztof Szajowski

We consider the challenge of efficiently detecting changes within a network of sensors, where we also need to minimise communication between sensors and the cloud. We propose an online, communication-efficient method to detect such changes.…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-11 Ziyang Yang , Idris A. Eckley , Paul Fearnhead

Although the applications of Non-Homogeneous Poisson Processes to model and study the threshold overshoots of interest in different time series of measurements have proven to provide good results, they needed to be complemented with an…

Applications · Statistics 2023-09-15 Biviana Marcela Suárez-Sierra , Arrigo Coen , Carlos Alberto Taimal

We are interested in estimating the location of what we call "smooth change-point" from $n$ independent observations of an inhomogeneous Poisson process. The smooth change-point is a transition of the intensity function of the process from…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-02-17 A. Amiri , S Dachian

Point pattern data often exhibit features such as abrupt changes, hotspots and spatially varying dependence in local intensity. Under a Poisson process framework, these correspond to discontinuities and nonstationarity in the underlying…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-24 Izabel Nolau , Flávio B. Gonçalves , Dani Gamerman

We present a detection problem where several spatially distributed sensors observe Poisson signals emitted from a single source of unknown position. The measurements at each sensor are modeled by independent inhomogeneous Poisson processes.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-06-19 Christian Farinetto , Yury A. Kutoyants , Alioune Top