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We present methods for causally interpretable meta-analyses that combine information from multiple randomized trials to estimate potential (counterfactual) outcome means and average treatment effects in a target population. We consider…

This paper proposes a doubly robust two-stage semiparametric difference-in-difference estimator for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects with high-dimensional data. Our new estimator is robust to model miss-specifications and allows…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-09-08 Yang Ning , Sida Peng , Jing Tao

We introduce causal inference reasoning to cross-over trials, with a focus on Thorough QT (TQT) studies. For such trials, we propose different sets of assumptions and consider their impact on the modelling strategy and estimation procedure.…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-31 Jeppe Ekstrand Halkjær Madsen , Thomas Scheike , Christian Pipper

For observational studies, we study the sensitivity of causal inference when treatment assignments may depend on unobserved confounders. We develop a loss minimization approach for estimating bounds on the conditional average treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-11 Steve Yadlowsky , Hongseok Namkoong , Sanjay Basu , John Duchi , Lu Tian

We address the problem of estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in panel data, adopting the popular Difference-in-Differences (DiD) framework under the conditional parallel trends assumption. We propose a novel doubly robust…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-29 Hui Lan , Haoge Chang , Eleanor Dillon , Vasilis Syrgkanis

We study two-way-fixed-effects regressions (TWFE) with several treatment variables. Under a parallel trends assumption, we show that the coefficient on each treatment identifies a weighted sum of that treatment's effect, with possibly…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-04-18 Clément de Chaisemartin , Xavier D'Haultfœuille

Controlled Direct Effect (CDE) is one of the causal estimands used to evaluate both exposure and mediation effects on an outcome. When there are unmeasured confounders existing between the mediator and the outcome, the ordinary…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-30 Shunichiro Orihara , Shinpei Imori , Kosuke Morikawa , Atsushi Goto , Masataka Taguri

Randomized controlled experiment has long been accepted as the golden standard for establishing causal link and estimating causal effect in various scientific fields. Average treatment effect is often used to summarize the effect…

Applications · Statistics 2016-10-14 Alex Deng , Pengchuan Zhang , Shouyuan Chen , Dong Woo Kim , Jiannan Lu

To infer the treatment effect for a single treated unit using panel data, synthetic control methods construct a linear combination of control units' outcomes that mimics the treated unit's pre-treatment outcome trajectory. This linear…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-07 Hongxiang Qiu , Xu Shi , Wang Miao , Edgar Dobriban , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

For treatment effects - one of the core issues in modern econometric analysis - prediction and estimation are two sides of the same coin. As it turns out, machine learning methods are the tool for generalized prediction models. Combined…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-04-27 Daniel Jacob

This thesis develops methods for causal inference and causal representation learning (CRL) in high-dimensional, time-varying data. The first contribution introduces the Causal Dynamic Variational Autoencoder (CDVAE), a model for estimating…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-05 Mouad EL Bouchattaoui

We generalize the potential outcome framework to time series with an intervention by defining causal effects on stochastic processes. Interventions in dynamic systems alter not only outcome levels but also evolutionary dynamics -- changing…

Causal inference plays a fundamental role in various real-world applications. However, in the motivating non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) study, it is challenging to estimate the treatment effect of chemotherapy on circulating tumor DNA…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-25 Zhixin Qiu , Huichen Zhu , Wenjie Wang , Yanlin Tang

Augmented inverse probability weighting and G-computation with canonical generalized linear models have become increasingly popular for estimating average treatment effects (ATEs) in randomized experiments. These methods leverage outcome…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-13 Muluneh Alene , Stijn Vansteelandt , Kelly Van Lancker

Modern causal inference methods allow machine learning to be used to weaken parametric modeling assumptions. However, the use of machine learning may result in complications for inference. Doubly-robust cross-fit estimators have been…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-11 Paul N Zivich , Alexander Breskin

We consider evaluating the causal effects of dynamic treatments, i.e. of multiple treatment sequences in various periods, based on double machine learning to control for observed, time-varying covariates in a data-driven way under a…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-06-22 Hugo Bodory , Martin Huber , Lukáš Lafférs

Randomized controlled trials often enroll participants whose characteristics differ from those of a target population, which can limit the generalizability of the estimated treatment effects when effect modifiers differ across populations.…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-15 Lan Wen , Issa J. Dahabreh , Yu-Han Chiu

This paper deals with the concept of equivalence between direct and indirect effects of a treatment on a response using two sets of intermediate variables and covariates. First, we provide criteria for testing whether two sets of variables…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-01-07 Manabu Kuroki

Methods for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) from observational data have largely focused on continuous or binary outcomes, with less attention paid to survival outcomes and almost none to settings with competing risks. In…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-30 Shenbo Xu , Raluca Cobzaru , Stan N. Finkelstein , Roy E. Welsch , Kenney Ng , Zach Shahn

Continuous treatment effect estimation holds significant practical importance across various decision-making and assessment domains, such as healthcare and the military. However, current methods for estimating dose-response curves hinge on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-05 Ruijing Cui , Jianbin Sun , Bingyu He , Kewei Yang , Bingfeng Ge