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Quantifying predictive uncertainty is essential for real world machine learning applications, especially in scenarios requiring reliable and interpretable predictions. Many common parametric approaches rely on neural networks to estimate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-31 Yang Yang , Chunlin Ji , Haoyang Li , Ke Deng

We introduce Equilibrium Matching (EqM), a generative modeling framework built from an equilibrium dynamics perspective. EqM discards the non-equilibrium, time-conditional dynamics in traditional diffusion and flow-based generative models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-14 Runqian Wang , Yilun Du

Quantifying uncertainty of machine learning model predictions is essential for reliable decision-making, especially in safety-critical applications. Recently, uncertainty quantification (UQ) theory has advanced significantly, building on a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-01 Alexander Fishkov , Kajetan Schweighofer , Mykyta Ielanskyi , Nikita Kotelevskii , Mohsen Guizani , Maxim Panov

While generative models have become increasingly prevalent across various domains, fundamental concerns regarding their reliability persist. A crucial yet understudied aspect of these models is the uncertainty quantification surrounding…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-17 Giorgio Morales , Frederic Jurie , Jalal Fadili

Quantile regression is a fundamental problem in statistical learning motivated by a need to quantify uncertainty in predictions, or to model a diverse population without being overly reductive. For instance, epidemiological forecasts, cost…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-04-18 Rasool Fakoor , Taesup Kim , Jonas Mueller , Alexander J. Smola , Ryan J. Tibshirani

Quantifying unknown quantum entanglement experimentally is a difficult task, but also becomes more and more necessary because of the fast development of quantum engineering. Machine learning provides practical solutions to this fundamental…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2023-06-21 Xiaodie Lin , Zhenyu Chen , Zhaohui Wei

Although Gaussian processes (GPs) with deep kernels have been successfully used for meta-learning in regression tasks, its uncertainty estimation performance can be poor. We propose a meta-learning method for calibrating deep kernel GPs for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-12-14 Tomoharu Iwata , Atsutoshi Kumagai

Generative quantum machine learning models are trained to deduce the probability distribution underlying a given dataset, and to produce new, synthetic samples from it. The majority of such models proposed in the literature, like the…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-03-25 Michael Krebsbach , Florentin Reiter , Thomas Wellens , Hagen-Henrik Kowalski , Ali Abedi

While neural networks have demonstrated impressive performance across various tasks, accurately quantifying uncertainty in their predictions is essential to ensure their trustworthiness and enable widespread adoption in critical systems.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-11 Joseph Wilson , Chris van der Heide , Liam Hodgkinson , Fred Roosta

This paper presents a novel framework for pattern prediction and system prognostics centered on Spatiotemporal Permutation Entropy analysis integrated with Boosted Enhanced Quantile Regression Neural Networks (BEQRNNs). We address the…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-04-03 David J Poland

In this PhD thesis, we propose a novel framework for uncertainty quantification in machine learning, which is based on proper scores. Uncertainty quantification is an important cornerstone for trustworthy and reliable machine learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-26 Sebastian G. Gruber

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the process of systematically determining and characterizing the degree of confidence in computational model predictions. In the context of systems biology, especially with dynamic models, UQ is crucial…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-29 Alberto Portela , Julio R. Banga , Marcos Matabuena

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is essential in probabilistic machine learning models, particularly for assessing the reliability of predictions. In this paper, we present a systematic framework for estimating both epistemic and aleatoric…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-11 Marzieh Ajirak , Anand Ravishankar , Petar M. Djuric

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in deep learning regression is of wide interest, as it supports critical applications including sequential decision making and risk-sensitive tasks. In heteroskedastic regression, where the uncertainty of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Mikkel Jordahn , Jonas Vestergaard Jensen , James Harrison , Michael Riis Andersen , Mikkel N. Schmidt

Quantum machine learning (QML) leverages quantum states for data encoding, with key approaches being explicit models that use parameterized quantum circuits and implicit models that use quantum kernels. Implicit models often have lower…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-12-08 Akimoto Nakayama , Hayata Morisaki , Kosuke Mitarai , Hiroshi Ueda , Keisuke Fujii

As machine learning (ML) models are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains, trustworthy uncertainty quantification (UQ) is critical for ensuring the safety and reliability of these models. Traditional UQ methods rely on specifying a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-14 Abhineet Agarwal , Michael Xiao , Rebecca Barter , Omer Ronen , Boyu Fan , Bin Yu

Deep learning has been shown to be highly effective for automatic modulation classification (AMC), which is a pivotal technology for next-generation cognitive communications. Yet, existing deep learning methods for AMC often lack robust…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-12-03 Huian Yang , Rajeev Sahay

Uncertainty quantification has been a core of the statistical machine learning, but its computational bottleneck has been a serious challenge for both Bayesians and frequentists. We propose a model-based framework in quantifying…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-04 Minsuk Shin , Young Lee , Jun S. Liu

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in graph neural networks (GNNs) is crucial in high-stakes domains but remains a significant challenge. In graph settings, message passing often relies on strong assumptions such as exchangeability, which are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-07 Soyoung park , Hwanjun Song , Sungsu Lim

We present a novel statistical approach to incorporating uncertainty awareness in model-free distributional reinforcement learning involving quantile regression-based deep Q networks. The proposed algorithm, $\textit{Calibrated Evidential…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-05 Alex Christopher Stutts , Danilo Erricolo , Theja Tulabandhula , Amit Ranjan Trivedi