Related papers: Multiscale feedback drives viral evolution and epi…
Traditional epidemiological models often fail to characterize the extreme volatility and heavy-tailed "Dragon King" events observed in real-world outbreaks. We propose a unified framework that bridges microscopic agent-based simulations…
We are interested in modeling some two-level population dynamics, resulting from the interplay of ecological interactions and phenotypic variation of individuals (or hosts) and the evolution of cells (or parasites) of two types living in…
Population dynamics and evolutionary genetics underly the structure of ecosystems, changing on the same timescale for interacting species with rapid turnover, such as virus (e.g. HIV) and immune response. Thus, an important problem in…
Most epidemic models assume equal mixing among members of a population. An alternative approach is to model a population as random network in which individuals may have heterogeneous connectivity. This paper builds on previous research by…
Empirical studies suggest that contact patterns follow heterogeneous inter-event times, meaning that intervals of high activity are followed by periods of inactivity. Combined with birth and death of individuals, these temporal constraints…
In this study, we develop and analyze a nested multi-scale model for COVID -19 disease that integrates within-host scale and between-host scale sub-models. First, the well-posedness of the multi-scale model is discussed, followed by the…
Highly-diverse ecosystems exhibit a broad distribution of population sizes and species turnover, where species at high and low abundances are exchanged over time. We show that these two features generically emerge in the fluctuating phase…
In this paper, we consider a compartmental SIRS epidemic model with asymptomatic infection and seasonal succession, which is a periodic discontinuous differential system. The basic reproduction number $\mathcal{R}_0$ is defined and valuated…
Theoretical modeling of computer virus/worm epidemic dynamics is an important problem that has attracted many studies. However, most existing models are adapted from biological epidemic ones. Although biological epidemic models can…
The emergence or adaptation of pathogens may lead to epidemics, highlighting the need for a thorough understanding of pathogen evolution. The tradeoff hypothesis suggests that virulence evolves to reach an optimal transmission intensity…
Metapopulation epidemic models help capture the spatial dimension of infectious disease spread by dividing heterogeneous populations into separate but interconnected communities, represented by nodes in a network. In the event of an…
We study seasonal epidemic spreading in a susceptible-infected-removed-susceptible (SIRS) model on smallworld graphs. We derive a mean-field description that accurately captures the salient features of the model, most notably a phase…
Multiple viruses are widely studied because of their negative effect on the health of host as well as on whole population. The dynamics of coinfection is important in this case. We formulated a SIR model that describes the coinfection of…
We performed a thorough sensitivity analysis of the herd immunity threshold for discrete-time SIR compartmental models with a static network structure. We find unexpectedly that these models violate classical intuition which holds that the…
Many real world networks are characterized by adaptive changes in their topology depending on the dynamic state of their nodes. Here we study epidemic dynamics in an adaptive network, where susceptibles are able to avoid contact with…
Many systems with propagation dynamics, such as spike propagation in neural networks and spreading of infectious diseases, can be approximated by autoregressive models. The estimation of model parameters can be complicated by the…
The role of epidemiological models is crucial for informing public health officials during a public health emergency, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. However, traditional epidemiological models fail to capture the time-varying effects of…
Chronic viral infections can persist in an infected person for decades. From the perspective of the virus, a single infection can span thousands of generations, leading to a highly diverse population of viruses with its own complex…
We study extensions of the classical SIR model of epidemic spread. First, we consider a single population modified SIR epidemics model in which the contact rate is allowed to be an arbitrary function of the fraction of susceptible and…
Forecasting the change in the distribution of viral variants is crucial for therapeutic design and disease surveillance. This task poses significant modeling challenges due to the sharp differences in virus distributions across…