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In regression, conformal prediction is a general methodology to construct prediction intervals in a distribution-free manner. Although conformal prediction guarantees strong statistical property for predictive inference, its inherent…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-12-01 Wenyu Chen , Zhaokai Wang , Wooseok Ha , Rina Foygel Barber

Data-driven surrogate models offer quick approximations to complex numerical and experimental systems but typically lack uncertainty quantification, limiting their reliability in safety-critical applications. While Bayesian methods provide…

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a popular method for uncertainty quantification with machine learning models. While conformal prediction provides probabilistic guarantees regarding the coverage of the true label, these guarantees are agnostic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-21 Aditya T. Vadlamani , Anutam Srinivasan , Pranav Maneriker , Ali Payani , Srinivasan Parthasarathy

Conformal prediction (CP) has been a popular method for uncertainty quantification because it is distribution-free, model-agnostic, and theoretically sound. For forecasting problems in supervised learning, most CP methods focus on building…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-24 Chen Xu , Hanyang Jiang , Yao Xie

Conformal prediction (CP) provides finite-sample, distribution-free marginal coverage, but standard conformal regression intervals can be inefficient under heteroscedasticity and skewness. In particular, popular constructions such as…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-03 Xiaoyi Su , Zhixin Zhou , Rui Luo

Trustworthy decision making in networked, dynamic environments calls for innovative uncertainty quantification substrates in predictive models for graph time series. Existing conformal prediction (CP) methods have been applied separately to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-14 Sonakshi Dua , Gonzalo Mateos , Sundeep Prabhakar Chepuri

In high-stakes scenarios, such as medical imaging applications, it is critical to equip the predictions of a regression model with reliable confidence intervals. Recently, Conformal Prediction (CP) has emerged as a powerful statistical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-19 Yahav Cohen , Jacob Goldberger , Tom Tirer

With the advancement of Internet of Things (IoT) technologies, high-precision indoor positioning has become essential for Location-Based Services (LBS) in complex indoor environments. Fingerprint-based localization is popular, but…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-06 Zhiyi Zhou , Hexin Peng , Hongyu Long

Reliable uncertainty quantification is of critical importance in time series forecasting, yet traditional methods often rely on restrictive distributional assumptions. Conformal prediction (CP) has emerged as a promising distribution-free…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-02 Andro Sabashvili

Graphs play a crucial role in data mining and machine learning, representing real-world objects and interactions. As graph datasets grow, managing large, decentralized subgraphs becomes essential, particularly within federated learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-21 Ömer Faruk Akgül , Rajgopal Kannan , Viktor Prasanna

Safe deployment of deep neural networks in high-stake real-world applications requires theoretically sound uncertainty quantification. Conformal prediction (CP) is a principled framework for uncertainty quantification of deep models in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-21 Subhankar Ghosh , Taha Belkhouja , Yan Yan , Janardhan Rao Doppa

Surrogate models (including deep neural networks and other machine learning algorithms in supervised learning) are capable of approximating arbitrarily complex, high-dimensional input-output problems in science and engineering, but require…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-17 Miguel Sánchez-Domínguez , Lucas Lacasa , Javier de Vicente , Gonzalo Rubio , Eusebio Valero

Deploying trustworthy AI systems requires principled uncertainty quantification. Conformal prediction (CP) is a widely used framework for constructing prediction sets with distribution-free coverage guarantees. In many practical settings,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-18 Haifeng Wen , Osvaldo Simeone , Hong Xing

Conformal prediction (CP) is a distribution-free method to construct reliable prediction intervals that has gained significant attention in recent years. Despite its success and various proposed extensions, a significant practical feature…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-02 Louis Allain , Sébastien Da Veiga , Brian Staber

Deep Learning predictions with measurable confidence are increasingly desirable for real-world problems, especially in high-risk settings. The Conformal Prediction (CP) framework is a versatile solution that guarantees a maximum error rate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-08 Julia A. Meister , Khuong An Nguyen , Stelios Kapetanakis , Zhiyuan Luo

Volumetry is one of the principal downstream applications of 3D medical image segmentation, for example, to detect abnormal tissue growth or for surgery planning. Conformal Prediction is a promising framework for uncertainty quantification,…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-07-30 Benjamin Lambert , Florence Forbes , Senan Doyle , Michel Dojat

In this paper, we present a novel approach for conformal prediction (CP), in which we aim to identify a set of promising prediction candidates -- in place of a single prediction. This set is guaranteed to contain a correct answer with high…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-03 Adam Fisch , Tal Schuster , Tommi Jaakkola , Regina Barzilay

Conformal Prediction (CP) serves as a robust framework that quantifies uncertainty in predictions made by Machine Learning (ML) models. Unlike traditional point predictors, CP generates statistically valid prediction regions, also known as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-29 A. A. Balinsky , A. D. Balinsky

Conformal prediction is widely adopted in uncertainty quantification, due to its post-hoc, distribution-free, and model-agnostic properties. In the realm of modern deep learning, researchers have proposed Feature Conformal Prediction (FCP),…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-03 Zihao Tang , Boyuan Wang , Chuan Wen , Jiaye Teng

Conformal prediction (CP) for regression can be challenging, especially when the output distribution is heteroscedastic, multimodal, or skewed. Some of the issues can be addressed by estimating a distribution over the output, but in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-15 Etash Guha , Shlok Natarajan , Thomas Möllenhoff , Mohammad Emtiyaz Khan , Eugene Ndiaye