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Reasoning language models can solve increasingly complex tasks, but struggle to produce the calibrated confidence estimates necessary for reliable deployment. Existing calibration methods usually depend on labels or repeated sampling at…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-22 Thomas Zollo , Jimmy Wang , Richard Zemel

The unprecedented performance of large language models (LLMs) necessitates improvements in evaluations. Rather than merely exploring the breadth of LLM abilities, we believe meticulous and thoughtful designs are essential to thorough,…

Confidence-weighted routing, selective abstention, and ensemble weighting all assume that a model's stated confidence is informative about its capability on the question being asked. They presume functional metacognition, the capacity to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-26 M. Moran , Mark Whiting

Despite the rapid expansion of Large Language Models (LLMs) in healthcare, robust and explainable evaluation of their ability to assess clinical trial reporting according to CONSORT standards remains an open challenge. In particular,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-02-26 Sohyeon Jeon , Hyung-Chul Lee

Language models (LMs) should provide reliable confidence estimates to help users detect mistakes in their outputs and defer to human experts when necessary. Asking a language model to assess its confidence ("Score your confidence from…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-02-04 Vaishnavi Shrivastava , Ananya Kumar , Percy Liang

Multiple Choice Question (MCQ) tests are among the most used methods for evaluating large language models (LLMs). Besides checking the correctness of the selected answer, evaluations often consider the model's confidence through the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-05 Tairan Fu , Javier Conde , Gonzalo Martínez , María Grandury , Pedro Reviriego

In recent years, substantial advancements have been made in the development of large language models, achieving remarkable performance across diverse tasks. To evaluate the knowledge ability of language models, previous studies have…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-05-30 Xunjian Yin , Xu Zhang , Jie Ruan , Xiaojun Wan

Large reasoning models (LRMs) have recently demonstrated impressive capabilities in complex reasoning tasks by leveraging increased test-time computation and exhibiting behaviors reminiscent of human-like self-reflection. While LRMs show a…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-21 Qingcheng Zeng , Weihao Xuan , Leyang Cui , Rob Voigt

Confidence calibration is essential for making large language models (LLMs) reliable, yet existing training-free methods have been primarily studied under single-answer question answering. In this paper, we show that these methods break…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-02-10 Yuhan Wang , Shiyu Ni , Zhikai Ding , Zihang Zhan , Yuanzi Li , Keping Bi

Calibration measures whether a model's predicted confidence aligns with its empirical accuracy, and is central to the reliable deployment of large language models (LLMs) in high-stakes domains such as medicine and law. While much recent…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Zhanliang Wang , Jiancong Xiao , Ruochen Jin , Shu Yang , Bojian Hou , Li Shen

It is important for Large Language Models (LLMs) to be aware of the boundary of their knowledge, distinguishing queries they can confidently answer from those that lie beyond their capabilities. Such awareness enables models to perform…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-03-05 Lihu Chen , Gerard de Melo , Fabian M. Suchanek , Gaël Varoquaux

Ensuring that deep learning models are well-calibrated in terms of their predictive uncertainty is essential in maintaining their trustworthiness and reliability, yet despite increasing advances in foundation model research, the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-01-06 Jerry Huang , Peng Lu , Qiuhao Zeng , Yusuke Iwasawa , Yutaka Matsuo , Sarath Chandar , Edison Marrese-Taylor , Irene Li

Language models retain a significant amount of world knowledge from their pre-training stage. This allows knowledgeable models to be applied to knowledge-intensive tasks prevalent in information retrieval, such as ranking or question…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-06-13 Jonas Wallat , Tianyi Zhang , Avishek Anand

For speech classification tasks, deep learning models often achieve high accuracy but exhibit shortcomings in calibration, manifesting as classifiers exhibiting overconfidence. The significance of calibration lies in its critical role in…

Audio and Speech Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-06-27 Yaqian Hao , Chenguang Hu , Yingying Gao , Shilei Zhang , Junlan Feng

While large language models (LLMs) demonstrate strong capabilities across diverse user queries, they still suffer from hallucinations, often arising from knowledge misalignment between pre-training and fine-tuning. To address this…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-08 Joosung Lee , Hwiyeol Jo , Donghyeon Ko , Kyubyung Chae , Cheonbok Park , Jeonghoon Kim

Conceptual knowledge is fundamental to human cognition and knowledge bases. However, existing knowledge probing works only focus on evaluating factual knowledge of pre-trained language models (PLMs) and ignore conceptual knowledge. Since…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-11-09 Hao Peng , Xiaozhi Wang , Shengding Hu , Hailong Jin , Lei Hou , Juanzi Li , Zhiyuan Liu , Qun Liu

Uncertainty estimation is a significant issue for current large language models (LLMs) that are generally poorly calibrated and over-confident, especially with reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF). Unlike humans, whose…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-05-13 Ruixin Yang , Dheeraj Rajagopal , Shirley Anugrah Hayati , Bin Hu , Dongyeop Kang

A well-calibrated model should express confidence that matches its actual accuracy -- when it claims 80\% confidence, it should be correct 80\% of the time. While large language models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable performance across…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-12-19 Lukas Nel

Calibration is commonly evaluated by comparing model confidence with its empirical correctness, implicitly treating reliability as a function of the confidence score alone. However, this view can hide substantial structure: models may be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-14 Katarzyna Kobalczyk , Mihaela van der Schaar

Vision-Language Models (VLMs) have achieved remarkable progress in complex visual understanding across scientific and reasoning tasks. While performance benchmarking has advanced our understanding of these capabilities, the critical…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-01-27 Asif Azad , Mohammad Sadat Hossain , MD Sadik Hossain Shanto , M Saifur Rahman , Md Rizwan Parvez