Related papers: Statistical Inference for Explainable Boosting Mac…

Inferring dynamics from time series is an important objective in data analysis. In particular, it is challenging to infer stochastic dynamics given incomplete data. We propose an expectation maximization (EM) algorithm that iterates between…

This paper introduces the RUMBoost model, a novel discrete choice modelling approach that combines the interpretability and behavioural robustness of Random Utility Models (RUMs) with the generalisation and predictive ability of deep…

Multilevel models (MLMs) are a central building block of the Bayesian workflow. They enable joint, interpretable modeling of data across hierarchical levels and provide a fully probabilistic quantification of uncertainty. Despite their…

Macroeconomic nowcasting sits at the intersection of traditional econometrics, data-rich information systems, and AI applications in business, economics, and policy. Machine learning (ML) methods are increasingly used to nowcast quarterly…

Despite the frequent use of agent-based models (ABMs) for studying social phenomena, parameter estimation remains a challenge, often relying on costly simulation-based heuristics. This work uses variational inference to estimate the…

We show that the Bregman divergence provides a rich framework to estimate unnormalized statistical models for continuous or discrete random variables, that is, models which do not integrate or sum to one, respectively. We prove that recent…

Model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) has shown its advantages in sample-efficiency over model-free reinforcement learning (MFRL). Despite the impressive results it achieves, it still faces a trade-off between the ease of data…

Restricted Boltzmann machines (RBMs) are energy-based models analogous to the Ising model and are widely applied in statistical machine learning. The standard inverse Ising problem with a complete dataset requires computing both data and…

The demand for reliable AI systems has intensified the need for interpretable deep neural networks. Concept bottleneck models (CBMs) have gained attention as an effective approach by leveraging human-understandable concepts to enhance…

Neural networks trained with standard objectives exhibit behaviors characteristic of probabilistic inference: soft clustering, prototype specialization, and Bayesian uncertainty tracking. These phenomena appear across architectures -- in…

We motivate Energy-Based Models (EBMs) as a promising model class for continual learning problems. Instead of tackling continual learning via the use of external memory, growing models, or regularization, EBMs change the underlying training…

Boosting has garnered significant interest across both machine learning and statistical communities. Traditional boosting algorithms, designed for fully observed random samples, often struggle with real-world problems, particularly with…

Agent-based modelling (ABMing) is a powerful and intuitive approach to modelling complex systems; however, the intractability of ABMs' likelihood functions and the non-differentiability of the mathematical operations comprising these models…

Latent Gaussian models have a rich history in statistics and machine learning, with applications ranging from factor analysis to compressed sensing to time series analysis. The classical method for maximizing the likelihood of these models…

Interpretability of learning-to-rank models is a crucial yet relatively under-examined research area. Recent progress on interpretable ranking models largely focuses on generating post-hoc explanations for existing black-box ranking models,…

Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) are widely used explainable-by-design models in various applications. GAMs assume that the output can be represented as a sum of univariate functions, referred to as components. However, this assumption…

Factorization machines (FMs) are a powerful tool for regression and classification in the context of sparse observations, that has been successfully applied to collaborative filtering, especially when side information over users or items is…

The currently dominating artificial intelligence and machine learning technology, neural networks, builds on inductive statistical learning. Neural networks of today are information processing systems void of understanding and reasoning…

Decomposing prediction uncertainty into aleatoric (irreducible) and epistemic (reducible) components is critical for the reliable deployment of machine learning systems. While the mutual information between the response variable and model…

Generalized additive models (GAMs) have become a leading modelclass for interpretable machine learning. However, there are many algorithms for training GAMs, and these can learn different or even contradictory models, while being equally…